I am predicting that US stock markets will have to temporarily close in the next month

[der_kommissar]

Thanks for pointing out my typo I was Bullish the last 5 years equities not bearish. My view this summer was that there would be one more push up to ATHs, this hasnt happened and I dont think its possible now until there is a larger correction.

The July OpEx would qualify IMO...the Nasdaq put in a convincing run on the back of a handful of stocks that gapped 5-10% higher...the Dow was already in the midst of a correction and lagging...

 

[piezoe]

Thanks for pointing out my typo I was Bullish the last 5 years equities not bearish. My view this summer was that there would be one more push up to ATHs, this hasnt happened and I dont think its possible now until there is a larger correction.

I'm glad to hear that. That's much more sensible. Once stocks started moving sharply off "the March 2009 devils bottom" it's hard to imagine someone remaining bearish in outlook over these years since 2009. It appeared to me since Dec 2014 that the market was showing classic signs of wanting to put in a major top , and I commented on this somewhere in ET. It took its sweet time, we were way overdue for a correction, but we finally got that correction we were patiently waiting for.

 

[recession2016]

My own opinion is that your prognostication is somewhat overdone. As you have already learned from your bear position during the "money printing experiment", QE was not what you thought it was! I don't think another leg down in the next 6 months or so would surprise anyone who has been around the block a few times. They'll be no 1929 style panic, however, and a further leg down would be quickly bought.

Many traders here are remiss in their understanding of QE. Because QE is called, even by some economists, "money printing", they think it is money printing. It isn't. It is actually something quite different.

QE is just bond buying by the FED, which suppresses rates and rates on treasuries are near historic lows right now. Fundamentals haven't changed, but sentiment has. There's just not enough buyers to push the market to ATH, hence the 6 month consolidation, and now people will get shaken out until solid support is found. Nobody knows when that will be.

The FED should just hike in september and rip the bandage off the wound, because they're doing more harm than good by making people guess month to month.

 

[londonkid]

Some signs panic is building again. Vix ramping. Going to be in an interesting month.

 

[londonkid]

Assume brace position. Chinese indices look very bearish going into Asian open.

 

[felixbocharov]

U.S. markets finished weak which will carry over to Asia and Europe tonight. Poor job numbers coming tomorrow (but they'll be "revised" next month, don't worry). Sounds like a recipe for a really bad day on Wall Street tomorrow!

 

[Sig]

U.S. markets finished weak which will carry over to Asia and Europe tonight. Poor job numbers coming tomorrow (but they'll be "revised" next month, don't worry). Sounds like a recipe for a really bad day on Wall Street tomorrow!

Where did you manage to get ahold of tomorrow's job numbers? If the consensus is that they're going to be poor, then that's already been priced into the market today.