You have an opportunity to accumulate more calls at a discount.....
I am not fooled...it is time to sell sell sell!
- Thread starter blowingup2012
- Start date
You have an opportunity to accumulate more calls at a discount.....
Here
Market will squeeze up, money will flood out of bonds, mutual funds will keep pumping, and money managers will chase, creating an exaggerated move up. We are getting close to the multi-year high. Something like this needs to happen so that people can lose money in a market that everyone is either skeptical or hedged. Anyone realize that the market has basically shrugged off the mortgage crisis? Shrugged off euro concerns?
Apple is becoming parabolic, a significant break above 600 will create an upside vacuum, creating a short-term blow off top.
My advice? Watch the bond markets. When the yield becomes attractive relative to market opportunities again, we will see the top in the stock market.
Gold may be forming inverse head and shoulders. Dollar index not making significant bounce off lows.
Watch for several things to happen at a similar time:
1. Dollar new lows or continued stagnation
2. Gold approaching highs
3. Sell-off, stabilization and retest in the TLT
4. Euro weakness
5. Weak job numbers into spring
6. Stock market top and move to range low S&P 1100 area.
Continued currency weakness and devaluation leads to cash flow into metals and bonds. Stock market will not double dip because money must remain in assets, stock market has a forced floor. Additionally, businesses aren't struggling. Growth may become stunted, leading to multiple contraction, but not enough to warrant a sell off to 2008 levels.
Though, there is the chance of a financial meltdown leading to another housing market crash, 401k liquidation, etc. I can't say that won't happen, any number of events and factors can trigger it. However, I see the probability of this happening trending lower and lower.
Long-term, we are at the mercy of the debt problem, the Fed's willingness to print more bills, and overseas growth rates. Unless a new industry comes in, we can expect to be range bound for quite some time.
It is not unwise to sell up here. Let the market come in, and buy as low as you can before the holidays. The opportunity might only last 1-3 days, before we pop back up and begin another grind up to range highs.
That is March's theory.
Apple is becoming parabolic, a significant break above 600 will create an upside vacuum, creating a short-term blow off top.
My advice? Watch the bond markets. When the yield becomes attractive relative to market opportunities again, we will see the top in the stock market.
Gold may be forming inverse head and shoulders. Dollar index not making significant bounce off lows.
Watch for several things to happen at a similar time:
1. Dollar new lows or continued stagnation
2. Gold approaching highs
3. Sell-off, stabilization and retest in the TLT
4. Euro weakness
5. Weak job numbers into spring
6. Stock market top and move to range low S&P 1100 area.
Continued currency weakness and devaluation leads to cash flow into metals and bonds. Stock market will not double dip because money must remain in assets, stock market has a forced floor. Additionally, businesses aren't struggling. Growth may become stunted, leading to multiple contraction, but not enough to warrant a sell off to 2008 levels.
Though, there is the chance of a financial meltdown leading to another housing market crash, 401k liquidation, etc. I can't say that won't happen, any number of events and factors can trigger it. However, I see the probability of this happening trending lower and lower.
Long-term, we are at the mercy of the debt problem, the Fed's willingness to print more bills, and overseas growth rates. Unless a new industry comes in, we can expect to be range bound for quite some time.
It is not unwise to sell up here. Let the market come in, and buy as low as you can before the holidays. The opportunity might only last 1-3 days, before we pop back up and begin another grind up to range highs.
That is March's theory.
Whenever I read these "macro theories," I ask....OK, now show me the "macro theory" BEFORE the move up....so we know you have a clue about trend change. If not, then it's just stuff from books that really don't work in real-time.
i know guys that work at fixed-income shops, and they admit stocks own bonds most of the time....but of course the bond market is much bigger.
the dollar is a nice leading indicator, until it's not.
gold can move hundred of dollars and then we will say it's "noise" if it doesn't help our argument...
i know guys that work at fixed-income shops, and they admit stocks own bonds most of the time....but of course the bond market is much bigger.
the dollar is a nice leading indicator, until it's not.
gold can move hundred of dollars and then we will say it's "noise" if it doesn't help our argument...
Quote from Wide Tailz:
You have an opportunity to accumulate more calls at a discount.....
I am short VIX. Long the APR/MAY futures calendar at 1:1 and long a fly that is neutral to APR 18.00.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=234610&perpage=10&pagenumber=11
In my journal So Cal Prop Trader I did state a macro theory that said we will squeeze up before we made a new high. And now I am telling you we are going to top out, and the factors that are going to lead to it. I am telling you about the trend change right now...
The dollar, bond market, stocks, commodities, etc, are all assets. Money is moved between assets to at minimum preserve the capital's value. Big money uses macro theories, macro theories cause the trend breaks, they are responsible for the crashes and the bull markets, etc. Short term noise / hysteria vs long-term truth.
I know why things are going to fall...its March and I will not go through the follies and drama for now. I will wait it out until the end of the summer when we are nice and sold off. For many here, waiting that long will be an eternity.