I am massively short the USD.

contra · Sep 4, 2019

destriero said:
I'd be out all and look to re-enter higher, but I still have the barrier in play. Good job. You got all of the move.

Thanks, yeah exactly the plan. I think we're good here for now, doubt it hits your NT by Friday.

destriero · Sep 4, 2019

contra said:
Thanks, yeah exactly the plan. I think we're good here for now, doubt it hits your NT by Friday.

I solved for the gain on the remainder to the barrier so I don't lose anything from current mark to the barrier ($30K on spot; ($30K) on barrier).

destriero · Sep 4, 2019

I plan on shorting 20MM (against notional, not prem) in the 1.31 vanilla puts out to October on Monday. Opportunity gains resulting in one fat synthetic straddle.

contra · Sep 4, 2019

destriero said:
I solved for the gain on the remainder to the barrier so I don't lose anything from current mark to the barrier ($30K on spot; ($30K) on barrier).

Yep I figured that from the way you used to trade the DNT/NT's in FX. So you picked that strike and payout with this in mind (from your average price at 1.3321)?

contra · Sep 4, 2019

Because I know it used to be you traded the DNT/NTs then solved for spot, but this is a different situation.

destriero · Sep 4, 2019

contra said:
Yep I figured that from the way you used to trade the DNT/NT's in FX. So you picked that strike and payout with this in mind (from your average price at 1.3321)?

I didn't as this was a straight spec initially and I was only interested in doubling the carry (in the barriers). I didn't want to invert on any significant portion and be net long delta in USD.

I do plan on shorting the synthetic combo on the way down. ALL the way down. bc you know, that's how you know.

destriero · Sep 4, 2019

contra said:
Because I know it used to be you traded the DNT/NTs then solved for spot, but this is a different situation.

Well that was edge in vol in which I'd solve not for local delta but for recovering half of the loss on the barrier touch.

destriero · Sep 4, 2019

I am pulling it from my watchlist until Friday's settle. I have no risk in the position. I gotta focus on eq-vol.

But please, all you hero longs, discuss...

contra · Sep 4, 2019

destriero said:
I didn't as this was a straight spec initially and I was only interested in doubling the carry (in the barriers). I didn't want to invert on any significant portion and be net long delta in USD.

I do plan on shorting the synthetic combo on the way down. ALL the way down. bc you know, that's how you know.

Right, it was to cover the swap. This is technical.

destriero said:
Well that was edge in vol in which I'd solve not for local delta but for recovering half of the loss on the barrier touch.

Right... I forgot it was half of the loss on the touch. It's been awhile and I didn't really get to play them myself much. Just as I was getting into it, the boxes magically vanished from Oanda. lol

destriero · Sep 4, 2019

Specterx said:
What would be the catalyst to kick off a USD bear trend? Right now the US economy is holding up well compared to most of the world, USD rates are relatively high and among the last places to find positive yields. The Fed might panic, crash rates to zero, restart QE etc. if risk sells off - but Trump is so desperate to gun the markets into 11/2020 that he's bargained with the Chinese for a "trade deal win" in exchange for silence on Hong Kong. When eventually announced it'll trigger a major rally in the short to medium term.

So looking to the next 1-2 years, either things fall apart globally and USD gets a flight to safety bid, or the economy keeps bumping along, Fed stays relatively tight (vs other CBs), trade war goes cold, and the fear trade gets unwound. Long USD seems more likely.

fail.