I am massively short the USD.

[SPX Blaster]

From risk and reward, there are tons of options that are better than shorting USD.
Besides, it is not that USD will be down in the futures so I will short it. This is a loser's way of thinking. If you short it, and it goes up, will you stop? Where is your stop? Soros shorted equity when nasdaq was at 3000, and he had to cut loss later since nasdaq run to 5000. he was right that nasdaq would be down later but he was still doing a losing trade.
So it doesn't matter whether USD will be down in the future. What makes your trade winning or losing is whether it go up first or go down first, and if it go against you, can you survive it?
So it is not future market direction that matter, it is the path of future market direction that matter.
An experienced trader will never short something even if he knows it will be down in the future. He will short it only if he knows it will be ALL THE WAY down from here .

The OP is smarter than me about sophisticated trading strategies. I am assuming he can hedge his position to withstand drawdown.

 

[smallfil]

One thing I’m trying to reconcile is the idea US is the highest cost producer in nearly everything. For commodities, this is certainly the case. However, for certain value added goods such as industrial machinery and services, how does one quantify quality or even “uniqueness”? I’m thinking in terms of the sustainability of US export levels under a increasing dollar. Another factor is the US becoming less dependent, or even independent, on energy imports. Instead of having to import $140.00 oil at its worse, it is now a non factor. This is a significant status quo changer in global money flows, with the implication the US Dollar has a positive fundamental it did not have since its 2008 low.

With the increasing use of robotics in industrial applications, I see the time when the manual cost of making say, electrical components by example, will be reduced below the cost of paying a human to do it! Imagine a robot does not tire (although, it does breakdown), works 24/7 non-stop, precise and not prone to human error, no salaries, pensions, healthcare, etc. On the plus side you would still need humans to program the robot to do what you want, a service technician to make sure that worn out parts of the robots is replaced to keep it running.

 

[destriero]

@smallfil fabricated a one lot option trade in a journal. It never hit the tape.

@bbpp, trading results in PNL. I'll worry about my end and you worry about yours.

 

[destriero]

My calls on euro have been 90% correct.I don't mind posting some euro calls if there is such a thread.

Uh huh.

You could start a "90% accurate FX calls" journal... but nobody would read it.

 

[bbpp]

Uh huh.

You could start a "90% accurate FX calls" journal... but nobody would read it.

I bet there will be tons of people coming to my thread but I just do not feel the desire to do it.
People came to such a thread as yours even it has little value, with typical call from an inexperienced trader.

 

[destriero]

I bet there will be tons of people coming to my thread but I just do not feel the desire to do it.
People came to such a thread as yours even it has little value, with bad trade idea.

You won't get 500 views in a week.

 

[bbpp]

So enjoy your thread while I enjoy my profit.

 

[ETJ]

The important metric is views - pretty much what many of us expected.

 

[destriero]

lol ETJ is blocked so she has to logout to read this thread which she doesn't want to read...

 

[Overnight]

The important metric is views - pretty much what many of us expected.

By that metric, B1S2 should be a super winner. Have you seen the number of views over there? Not sure the point, ETJ.