I am massively short the USD.

[blueraincap]

See, now the highschool dropouts are surfacing

I think the OP knows what he is doing. I agree with him on the short USD. I looked at the USDX historical data. There's not much to go on, but I see the USD weakening till maybe Feb, 2020. I don't want to post the chart I'm looking at as it may reveal how I do my cycles which I wish to keep to myself how to do it.

From risk and reward, there are tons of options that are better than shorting USD.
Besides, it is not that USD will be down in the futures so I will short it. This is a loser's way of thinking. If you short it, and it goes up, will you stop? Where is your stop? Soros shorted equity when nasdaq was at 3000, and he had to cut loss later since nasdaq run to 5000. he was right that nasdaq would be down later but he was still doing a losing trade.
So it doesn't matter whether USD will be down in the future. What makes your trade winning or losing is whether it go up first or go down first, and if it go against you, can you survive it?
So it is not future market direction that matter, it is the path of future market direction that matter.

 

[bbpp]

See, now the highschool dropouts are surfacing

Is pretending to know better that others make you feel good?
Sick of seeing such clowns.

Edit:
Was that you who claimed to make 100% every month and then went to C2 only to blow up accounts several times in a row?

 

[maximumpossiblesuffering]

I am definitely not a genius at all, but you guys started posting stupid nonsensical stuff first

One thing I’m trying to reconcile is the idea US is the highest cost producer in nearly everything. For commodities, this is certainly the case. However, for certain value added goods such as industrial machinery and services, how does one quantify quality or even “uniqueness”? I’m thinking in terms of the sustainability of US export levels under a increasing dollar. Another factor is the US becoming less dependent, or even independent, on energy imports. Instead of having to import $140.00 oil at its worse, it is now a non factor. This is a significant status quo changer in global money flows, with the implication the US Dollar has a positive fundamental it did not have since its 2008 low.

 

[destriero]

From risk and reward, there are tons of options that are better than shorting USD.
Besides, it is not that USD will be down in the futures so I will short it. This is a loser's way of thinking. If you short it, and it goes up, will you stop? Where is your stop? Soros shorted equity when nasdaq was at 3000, and he had to cut loss later since nasdaq run to 5000. he was right that nasdaq would be down later but he was still doing a losing trade.
So it doesn't matter whether USD will be down in the future. What makes your trade winning or losing is whether it go up first or go down first, and if it go against you, can you survive it?
So it is not future market direction that matter, it is the path of future market direction that matter.
An experienced trader will never short something even if he knows it will be down in the future. He will short it only if he knows it will be ALL THE WAY down from here .

Truly profound. I shall cover and short only when I deem it will be ALL THE WAY down. Thank you, Kierkegaard.

 

[blueraincap]

why don't we seriously analyze the lebanon sterling instead. I went to beirut last few months to 'get a feel' if its usd peg is doable, fundamentals are bad but the peg seems to be holding and the interest rate spread (stering-usd) is around 800bps! with its worsening relation with its sugar-gaddy saudi due to the rising hellbolah influence, i can't figure who would bail the tiny lebanon out with its twin deficits and poor fundamentals. the central bank reserves are kinda flat, but i can't understand how it is holding.

 

[maximumpossiblesuffering]

People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use - Søren Kierkegaard, Danish philosopher

 

[bbpp]

Why not just go long on gold and save the short fees? If the dollar is devalued it will be painfully obvious in the metal price.

Gold is a better option , as we can often see recently when equity up, gold up, when equity down, gold up.
1. When tariff is raised, equity down and gold up because of rising risk.
2. When Fed cut rate gold is up because USD down.
3. Since global economy is slowdown, every country is cutting rate, you buy gold as every currency devalued.

 

[destriero]

I'm flat PNL on spot, but up a bit on options. I am not going to mark the vol-positions to this thread as the vol is there to earn the outlay on the swap. I don't do gold. Look what happened to gold during the internet and subprime crashes. It's a source of funds when shit goes sideways and I cannot trade vol on gold.

You want to trade gold? Start a thread.

 

[smallfil]

I am definitely not a genius at all, but you guys started posting stupid nonsensical stuff first
-----------------------------
I might be the minority opinion here but, if all the other countries China, South Korea, European Union, Argentina, etc. economies are now struggling and trying to drive up exports, devaluating their currencies is the first natural step to make the cost of their products cheaper, wouldn't that drive the value of the dollar higher and not lower? A lot of these currencies are paired with the US dollar. China should drive its currency lower as a minor counter measure in view of the US imposing 30% tariffs on Chinese products. Also, with the very low interest rates, the world over, wouldn't foreigners now invest their monies in the US? Buying real estate, stocks, even treasury bills in the flight to safety? Wouldn't that drive the value of the dollar higher? When there is demand for something, the prices head higher and not lower?

What is nonsense about it? It is just common sense or your tiny brain cannot comprehend other countries doing what economically, benefits them? Debate the issues and say why it is wrong. You are very childish and to say you are smart and every one else dumb? I will leave that to the others to decide! Seems like you have troll tattoed on your forehead!

 

[bbpp]

I meant if you want to hold something,gold is a better option in current environment. I don't hold gold, only trade it when some gold positive news comes out(Because that will be a moment it goes all the way up). The thing I hold often is euro. I had a short on it from last week, and I am up 100% on it.Euro is an instrument that often goes all the way up or down,so in my view it is the best instrument to trade. My calls on euro have been 90% correct.I don't mind posting some euro calls if there is such a thread.