I am massively short the USD.

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destriero said:
I can also short a touch under spot, or a digital. I have some short vol under the mkt, but it's the 10-delta strike.
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Surely us pleebs can't trade vol on the spot markets, right? I have traded fx vol on the futures market, but never on the spot market.
 
krugman25 said:
Surely us pleebs can't trade vol on the spot markets, right? I have traded fx vol on the futures market, but never on the spot market.
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I doubt it. UBS used to have a $600K minimum if you were AI-status. IOW, you could be retail and an AI and trade the FX and barriers. They have tightened that up due to US regs. I would think that will $2-3MM you could trade thru an LLC.
 
Nice attack without any substance. All you said is that dollar will go down in the future. A pretty accurate but also a pretty stupid statement of zero value

krugman25 said:
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, but it is funny watching you think you do. Haha
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So your preditiction is that an asset will touch a 15 year level within the next 12 years? How ridiculous. You would not even survive 3 years paying short usd roll charges that are implied in any asset with direct exposure to the USD. If you are unlucky you will even pay on the negative yield in the long exposure of multiple counter currencies. Dummie

maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Hopefully this will be a specific enough call for you: UUP will reach a multi-year top of 27.50 on 01-02-2020 at 0655 GMT and a multi-year low of $19.00 on 10-01-2031 at 12:01 GMT.

UUP is near its 2008 high of 27.19 right now and this reflects formidable resistance. The new US fiscal year begins October 1st, and may be a starting point for implementing new non publicly disclosed policies. We already know the US wants a weaker dollar. I chose the beginning of next year because of some historical trend changes taking place in currencies on the beginning of a new year. In addition, until the US and China resolve their trade dispute, capital may continue to seek safe haven countries such as the US, Japan, and Switzerland. As I understand it, destriero has considerable FX experience and I would be reluctant to take a long term position against one of his major public calls.
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How did you trade fx vol in futures markets when futures are linear products? OMG, yes you are plebs, you made that perfectly clear.

krugman25 said:
Surely us pleebs can't trade vol on the spot markets, right? I have traded fx vol on the futures market, but never on the spot market.
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That sounds pretty unbelievable to be honest when EBS and Reuters dealing quote 2 to 3 wide spreads even in 20-30mil, and EBS and Reuters are aggregating bank liquidity, including that of UBS, if UBS was tighter, which it is not, then it would show in the EBS and Reuters books. I traded cash fx, options, all sorts of FI derivatives now for close to 15 years, more than half of it at Citi, Barclays, Lehman, and Macquarie and believe I know a thing or two. I currently clear around 500-600 million in cash fx per month and see the spreads on Hotspot, lmax, ebs, reuters, along my broker screens.

destriero said:
1.5 in USDCAD.
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