I am massively short the USD.

[GRULSTMRNN]

can appreciate all the comments you made re risk management. Very true statements. Even getting the timing and side right is only part of the bill.

Well, yes, that is my typical MO. Not in this case. I know his name and email, and would just contact him directly or PM him on ET. The trader in me does not care about his bet. I'm not looking to follow him. I find it more interesting how an experienced trader with a thesis chooses to follow through with risk capital. I'm not interested in the future of USD vs another currency.

I have been in this business for a LONG time. I have seen too many traders be right, but lose money or not make enough, through poor choices, miss allocation of capital, poor risk management and over or under leveraged.

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

its a horrific way to approach trading. He aims for an at least 5% move (to make a mil at least) but can only afford to lose 50k which translates into an adverse move of 0.25%. At current levels for USDCAD that translates into 33.25 pips. When looking at the daily range it becomes perfectly apparent even to beginners how stupid this bet really is. Zero room to be wrong, which is close to impossible to overcome.

He said he is short $20 million. That is leverage, not cash. And high leverage. Plus in his first post he expects this to make him seven figures. $20 mil is already 8 figures. At $500 per 1 lot ($100000) he would have to have $100k to open a trade of 20 mil. Of course, he would have to have more to handle some draw down

 

[orbit23]

I am bearish USD too. I think a rate cut could come, dollar would drop and equities would move higher. I'd wait just so slightly before pulling the trigger though. Wait for mon/tue/wed.

 

[destriero]

Was this done with SPOT FX or Futures or options on these? Do you have a hedge? If CME futures, Looks like about 200 futures and about $220,000 in the initial margin. Sound about right?

UBS Neo. Spot. No direct hedge (no other CAD pair traded). My haircut is higher that the futures. $15xx USD per pip.

 

[mskl]

I have reconciled taking heat on tariff-reduction, but feel I am going to make 7-figures over the next two years short the USD. A de facto short dollar policy will be adopted by the current and successive Administration(s). We must inflate via a weak-dollar inflationary spiral to pay the US debt and buoy US exports in the short term.

I am short 20MM USDCAD from 1.3321 average. Short all majors as well.

Gekko: The rarest pistol in the world, Larry. A .45 Luger. Only six of them were ever manufactured.

Wildman: Congratulations

 

[destriero]

Jesus, people can't read.

I am essentially short synthetic USDX in spot (other unnamed pos). $1,500 per pip in *USD*... yes, it's denominated in CAD for those of you that did 5th grade twice.

I'm not going to respond to BS. I'll post the eventual stop/cover.

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

This is what I read that you wrote:

"I am short 20MM USDCAD from 1.3321 average. Short allmajors as well."

Clearly this refers to cash fx or direct exposure to cash fx.

Jesus, people can't read.

I am essentially short synthetic USDX in spot. $1,500 per pip in CAD. Just under $10K per pip overall.

I'm not going to respond to BS. I'll post the eventual stop/cover.

 

[destriero]

This is what I read that you wrote:

"I am short 20MM USDCAD from 1.3321 average. Short allmajors as well."

Clearly this refers to cash fx or direct exposure to cash fx.

It is. Clearly.

I am long more than CAD. I stated so in the opening post. I am not expecting millions in CAD. The position is synthetically short USDX.

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

Yes but among other dollar crosses you are short 20mln usd and long 20 *1.33xx mln CAD.

It is. Clearly.

I am long more than CAD. I stated so in the opening post. I am not expecting millions in CAD. The position is synthetically short USDX.

 

[destriero]

Yes but among other dollar crosses you are short 20mln usd and long 20 *1.33xx mln CAD.

Yes, I get that. I simply stated that I am not in any other CAD crosses. Sure, I can quote my USD exposure, but I chose not to do so. I get your point; I should have stated my net USD exposure.It's a pretty low bar on this forum and I thought I'd get "cop out" by posting the figure.