Short Time Warner (TWX).
What a beastly dog of a stock it is.
What a beastly dog of a stock it is.
I Am In 25% Cash! All Accounts*
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
I think I'm still long TWX up North! I like the cable business in general.
How funny just one day ago- yesterday the floor brokers were patting the market on it's back for how well it held up in the face of the China sell off. Now a day later and we have inflation. Boy what a fickle market. Lets get our thoughts organized.
- The Fed is in a pickle. He would like to raise rates to cool off this liquidity driven merger mania. He is pointing towards this future surge in the economy... I just don't see it. From everything I read and feel out there- the Fed will indeed be easing soon preferably in August but probably the meeting after. With so many adjustable mortgages there is a danger of letting the 10 year get much past 5 1/4% yield. That's 5 & 1/4 folks, we've been here before the market rallied last time between 5% and 5 1/4 no problem, things get dicey after that and the computers start talking to themselves... so lets stop blaming the 10 year bond for the sell off as well. This whole thread has pointed out the tired internals from way back ,all of this should be of no surprise... the surprise is how weak the economy is going to look down the line here and what that does to the transports and cyclical. It seems to me, with finance sector already struggling, this whole stock cocktail we are drinking from just looks like crappola. But it's the only game in town. And we are knocking on heavens door it seems almost every day. Technology really seems poised to outperform here HealthTech obviously if you listen to the debates will be a huge trade.
Energy forever strong. Biotech has one MASSIVE run left in it (probably spiked by GERON) China propped up by the Gov until the Olympics? Probably. NCTY The9 sure has a nice chart. Traded up during the recent spikedown. You know I'm looking at REFR again too-- keep it on your watch list. Starting to trade like it does before one of their famous Press Releases.
The one good thing about these big sell offs is a table always opens up at the fancy pants restaurants. And I'm off for a Fine ass meal tonight because some banker couldn't take it!
And after I'm being dragged to a broadway show, I think that's why i placed a big bet on SEAC if it hits it will be a big mood enhancer for me tonight... ~ SI
How funny just one day ago- yesterday the floor brokers were patting the market on it's back for how well it held up in the face of the China sell off. Now a day later and we have inflation. Boy what a fickle market. Lets get our thoughts organized.
- The Fed is in a pickle. He would like to raise rates to cool off this liquidity driven merger mania. He is pointing towards this future surge in the economy... I just don't see it. From everything I read and feel out there- the Fed will indeed be easing soon preferably in August but probably the meeting after. With so many adjustable mortgages there is a danger of letting the 10 year get much past 5 1/4% yield. That's 5 & 1/4 folks, we've been here before the market rallied last time between 5% and 5 1/4 no problem, things get dicey after that and the computers start talking to themselves... so lets stop blaming the 10 year bond for the sell off as well. This whole thread has pointed out the tired internals from way back ,all of this should be of no surprise... the surprise is how weak the economy is going to look down the line here and what that does to the transports and cyclical. It seems to me, with finance sector already struggling, this whole stock cocktail we are drinking from just looks like crappola. But it's the only game in town. And we are knocking on heavens door it seems almost every day. Technology really seems poised to outperform here HealthTech obviously if you listen to the debates will be a huge trade.
Energy forever strong. Biotech has one MASSIVE run left in it (probably spiked by GERON) China propped up by the Gov until the Olympics? Probably. NCTY The9 sure has a nice chart. Traded up during the recent spikedown. You know I'm looking at REFR again too-- keep it on your watch list. Starting to trade like it does before one of their famous Press Releases.
The one good thing about these big sell offs is a table always opens up at the fancy pants restaurants. And I'm off for a Fine ass meal tonight because some banker couldn't take it!
And after I'm being dragged to a broadway show, I think that's why i placed a big bet on SEAC if it hits it will be a big mood enhancer for me tonight... ~ SI
CORRECTION OVER PHEW!
Thanks Bill Gross for giving us our cascade finish. Now we just repair and back n fill at these levels until we can find our sea legs again.
Sell offs tilted by inflation worries have little staying power-- we have been looking at the same high inflation numbers for two years now and discounting the really high food and energy inserts so nothing has changed. We have been noting that worker productivity has been slacking for about 3/4 a year... to claim that any of this is new is to not be honest with one's self.
What is really going on is we had a fake rally. A rally based off false assumptions of sub 4% growth. Who made be assumptions? Well the bigger question is who led us there and why. Business guided and so did our " trustworthy " analysts... did they really get it THAT wrong? Or was the whole affair just a way to distract our attention as we slid beneath the double digest earnings growth rate we had become accustomed to.
Now safely ensconced in 6%-8% growth area PE's can expand a bit and we can wait on a reduction in rates late summer. For the most part I am starting to agree that Big & Ugly is the way to go here. I am having a bad run of it in small cap land-- which brings me to me.
Sometimes you get a bad vibe on the market-- and you are proven right. But then you start wading back in and get your ass handed to you three times in a row and you begin to wonder have I lost it? Or have stocks lost me? My particular love of the exciting and groundbreaking stock may be hurting me more than I know. What to do now?
Well I am looking for weird and interesting plays of a higher cap sort but still buying weird stuff. Yesterday I bought a LARGE position in Aber Diamond I stock I had never heard of a week ago. Why? I'll lay out the bull points in a later thread but the main reason is to get me off the schnide to break away from small cap tech and buy a mining stock or buy a high end retail play or in this case both in one shot!
Let us see where we go from here but from stonedinvesting headquarters here in the big city it sure feels like Correction Over! Have A Nice Day!
~ stoney
Thanks Bill Gross for giving us our cascade finish. Now we just repair and back n fill at these levels until we can find our sea legs again.
Sell offs tilted by inflation worries have little staying power-- we have been looking at the same high inflation numbers for two years now and discounting the really high food and energy inserts so nothing has changed. We have been noting that worker productivity has been slacking for about 3/4 a year... to claim that any of this is new is to not be honest with one's self.
What is really going on is we had a fake rally. A rally based off false assumptions of sub 4% growth. Who made be assumptions? Well the bigger question is who led us there and why. Business guided and so did our " trustworthy " analysts... did they really get it THAT wrong? Or was the whole affair just a way to distract our attention as we slid beneath the double digest earnings growth rate we had become accustomed to.
Now safely ensconced in 6%-8% growth area PE's can expand a bit and we can wait on a reduction in rates late summer. For the most part I am starting to agree that Big & Ugly is the way to go here. I am having a bad run of it in small cap land-- which brings me to me.
Sometimes you get a bad vibe on the market-- and you are proven right. But then you start wading back in and get your ass handed to you three times in a row and you begin to wonder have I lost it? Or have stocks lost me? My particular love of the exciting and groundbreaking stock may be hurting me more than I know. What to do now?
Well I am looking for weird and interesting plays of a higher cap sort but still buying weird stuff. Yesterday I bought a LARGE position in Aber Diamond I stock I had never heard of a week ago. Why? I'll lay out the bull points in a later thread but the main reason is to get me off the schnide to break away from small cap tech and buy a mining stock or buy a high end retail play or in this case both in one shot!
Let us see where we go from here but from stonedinvesting headquarters here in the big city it sure feels like Correction Over! Have A Nice Day!
~ stoney
It's funny the conspiracy theorists inside me always notices that after every inflation scare we get in the economic reports oil suddenly begins to go down. And here again as if on cue oil retreats hard. Does GW pick up the phone and say Abdula I need a little help here with my economy?
Gold getting hammered too what does that tell us about inflation? I think that it's NOT there, but these are the trickiest of economic tinkering here. A stronger dollar, higher rates = renewed economic thrust let's hope it's true... on the other end of the spectrum a stretched banking system too many defaults on the horizon for these adjustable mortgages at the next reset-- it's a delicate balancing act right now for the economy but from a purely stock perspective... you couldn't ask for more the Fed is on hold despite himself because of the housing situation... eventually with the
free money we will OVERHEAT... but we're coming off puke 1% GDP numbers FAR from overheating, so unless the Fed has it completely ass backwards we have a huge up move ahead of us. ~ stoney
Gold getting hammered too what does that tell us about inflation? I think that it's NOT there, but these are the trickiest of economic tinkering here. A stronger dollar, higher rates = renewed economic thrust let's hope it's true... on the other end of the spectrum a stretched banking system too many defaults on the horizon for these adjustable mortgages at the next reset-- it's a delicate balancing act right now for the economy but from a purely stock perspective... you couldn't ask for more the Fed is on hold despite himself because of the housing situation... eventually with the
free money we will OVERHEAT... but we're coming off puke 1% GDP numbers FAR from overheating, so unless the Fed has it completely ass backwards we have a huge up move ahead of us. ~ stoney
At one point today it looked kind of sad DOW had retraced nearly everything but underlying the neg there was a different feeling out there- whispers of US Steel saying goodbye and being taken out over the weekend reminded everyone of the new parable BUY FRIDAYS. It's an amazing turnaround from the old don't want to be long on a Friday and a testament to the underlaying strength here. What happens if we get no buyouts monday? Well fall hard to be sure.
I've gotten through checking in with various technician driven forces and it's the usual doom and gloom have to retest too big a break etc. They got that one wrong last time and they have it wring this time too. Something fundamental changed today First a fed head with a hawkish stance said some soothing words, secondly Bill Gross said he sees no recession, third The semis have been kicking ass all day showing leadership, fourth the volatility index spiked big time.
It's Cramer. Yes I don't watch that fool but he invades the CNBC day space sometimes and flirts with one of my girls which pisses me off. So the whole tease yesterday was a " SELL BLOCK " how to protect your portfolio... talk about contrary indicator I started feeling better about things right there. Now one day later and he's recommending two spec bio plays for next week. The man should be committed.
One stock that has repeatedly caught my eye lately is Taser. I know they have such a stinky rep but the technical picture LT is too strong to ignore and the Newsflow has been real good. Chicago is stepping up deployment after a 2 year drawdown for testing such a big police forces OK will start a snowball effect for TASR already enjoying overseas growth especially France. If I was going to step into the market and I wasn't quite sure what to buy but I wanted sex and ability to rally with tech-- I would buy Taser. I probably will do it next week.
Next THURSDAY is a big heads up day CPI. Oh we are in a tortuous position now every econ number with baited breath. That surely will be powerful enough a sentiment changer to point this market in it's final direction. I'm looking at that being a confirmation volume day to the UPSIDE. and what's after Thursday?.. Friday, more deals on the horizon... in my happy scenario we are back at nosebleed territory by next friday and all of this is a bad
nervous hiccup.... SI
I've gotten through checking in with various technician driven forces and it's the usual doom and gloom have to retest too big a break etc. They got that one wrong last time and they have it wring this time too. Something fundamental changed today First a fed head with a hawkish stance said some soothing words, secondly Bill Gross said he sees no recession, third The semis have been kicking ass all day showing leadership, fourth the volatility index spiked big time.
It's Cramer. Yes I don't watch that fool but he invades the CNBC day space sometimes and flirts with one of my girls which pisses me off. So the whole tease yesterday was a " SELL BLOCK " how to protect your portfolio... talk about contrary indicator I started feeling better about things right there. Now one day later and he's recommending two spec bio plays for next week. The man should be committed.
One stock that has repeatedly caught my eye lately is Taser. I know they have such a stinky rep but the technical picture LT is too strong to ignore and the Newsflow has been real good. Chicago is stepping up deployment after a 2 year drawdown for testing such a big police forces OK will start a snowball effect for TASR already enjoying overseas growth especially France. If I was going to step into the market and I wasn't quite sure what to buy but I wanted sex and ability to rally with tech-- I would buy Taser. I probably will do it next week.
Next THURSDAY is a big heads up day CPI. Oh we are in a tortuous position now every econ number with baited breath. That surely will be powerful enough a sentiment changer to point this market in it's final direction. I'm looking at that being a confirmation volume day to the UPSIDE. and what's after Thursday?.. Friday, more deals on the horizon... in my happy scenario we are back at nosebleed territory by next friday and all of this is a bad
nervous hiccup.... SI
One more thing- I know I'm pontificating today but I have to say this> There is ONE man-- Only ONE man that I have run across over my many years investing who is always wrong. I don't mean usually wrong I mean ALWAYS. and this man is really the absolute sole number one most moronic guy ever on stocks... his calls are so polar opposite of reality it's downright SPOOKY I know most of you already know who I am talking about RALPH ACCAMPORA.
One of the great ironies of life is that this man still has a job in equities. The last few days have in comedic fashion highlighted this sad puppy dogs demented fate.
First he was on CNBC fresh with some make up and his " smiley Face " pattern thesis. A new name he was throwing out there hoping to find fame and prominence. A smiley face was, you guessed it, a big long basing pattern turning up. They pay this man big money for this, apparently Ralph woke up 10% later and realized that big cap's have made this move and have gotten up off the turf And now have big
" smiley face " patterns. Ralph sees something really big and different going on... the market instantly crashes. > Next day with the market in turmoil and spiraling down there he is again, this time on Bloomberg with even more makeup. Whatever firm Ralph is propped up at should be ashamed of themselves by now like a bad comedian at the Apollo, the sandman should of come out and thrown dust on him, where was the hook? Anyway Wrong Way Ralph ashen now, despite the heavy makeup, now says this might be the long awaited 10% correction, this is really bad, yada yada. Next day... Up 130.
Someone please, without resorting to violence, just for his own good, remove this constantly wrong person from the financial world entirely. He's financial tuberculous! His spittle is as poisonous as it is patently absurd... How many times does he have to put his foot in his mouth before people say enough! It's been TWENTY YEARS OF THIS HE WAS WRONG throughout THE ENTIRE 80's & 90's! Just bundle him up in a hot air balloon in the shape of a big bull and let him float away PLEASE! It's too much. Stoney Out! Have A Great Weekend Folks!
One of the great ironies of life is that this man still has a job in equities. The last few days have in comedic fashion highlighted this sad puppy dogs demented fate.
First he was on CNBC fresh with some make up and his " smiley Face " pattern thesis. A new name he was throwing out there hoping to find fame and prominence. A smiley face was, you guessed it, a big long basing pattern turning up. They pay this man big money for this, apparently Ralph woke up 10% later and realized that big cap's have made this move and have gotten up off the turf And now have big
" smiley face " patterns. Ralph sees something really big and different going on... the market instantly crashes. > Next day with the market in turmoil and spiraling down there he is again, this time on Bloomberg with even more makeup. Whatever firm Ralph is propped up at should be ashamed of themselves by now like a bad comedian at the Apollo, the sandman should of come out and thrown dust on him, where was the hook? Anyway Wrong Way Ralph ashen now, despite the heavy makeup, now says this might be the long awaited 10% correction, this is really bad, yada yada. Next day... Up 130.
Someone please, without resorting to violence, just for his own good, remove this constantly wrong person from the financial world entirely. He's financial tuberculous! His spittle is as poisonous as it is patently absurd... How many times does he have to put his foot in his mouth before people say enough! It's been TWENTY YEARS OF THIS HE WAS WRONG throughout THE ENTIRE 80's & 90's! Just bundle him up in a hot air balloon in the shape of a big bull and let him float away PLEASE! It's too much. Stoney Out! Have A Great Weekend Folks!
I missed yesterday entirely I spent the day at my soon to be discontinued retail store awaiting a liqueur delivery for my closing party-- talk about productivity slowing!
Looks like a bond yield sell off combined with Alan Greenspan comments, combined with lack of M&A, combined with Iran jitters. Let's take a step back and really take in what this market has absorbed in just the last few days.
a 10 year almost at 5.30%! proof that Iran is helping the Taliban. US Steel (the reason for last week's optimism) gets jilted by Thyson Krupp, Texas Inst lacks sizzle in earnings, REITS carving out lows, Bill Gross shoots off mouth, as does dear Alan G....
And here we are ready to rally today. Amazing. It could make one sniff GLUU which I am going to do this morning @ $13.40. ~ stoney
Looks like a bond yield sell off combined with Alan Greenspan comments, combined with lack of M&A, combined with Iran jitters. Let's take a step back and really take in what this market has absorbed in just the last few days.
a 10 year almost at 5.30%! proof that Iran is helping the Taliban. US Steel (the reason for last week's optimism) gets jilted by Thyson Krupp, Texas Inst lacks sizzle in earnings, REITS carving out lows, Bill Gross shoots off mouth, as does dear Alan G....
And here we are ready to rally today. Amazing. It could make one sniff GLUU which I am going to do this morning @ $13.40. ~ stoney
Friday Update*
Well folks stoney has carried you through yet another scare. We recognized the correction coming two weeks before anyone else did, we went to ridiculous cash and small short position on market, realized that whatever was coming at us wasn't that scary scaled back in to be only 6% cash and here we are 100 points away from an all time high. And stoney likes highs very much.
Today i'm looking at BARE a former highflyer down hard and just completed a secondary $1 above the current price, sitting on clear support this would be the bounce buy today i think. More on it later.
Also I continue to buy Force Protect FRPT.
One word of caution. As bond yields climb it makes it harder to get private equity deals done this combined with tighter loaning standards will start to crimp the M&A activity. We clearly need a big buyout on Monday to keep the momentum going odds are we will get it... ~ SI
Well folks stoney has carried you through yet another scare. We recognized the correction coming two weeks before anyone else did, we went to ridiculous cash and small short position on market, realized that whatever was coming at us wasn't that scary scaled back in to be only 6% cash and here we are 100 points away from an all time high. And stoney likes highs very much.
Today i'm looking at BARE a former highflyer down hard and just completed a secondary $1 above the current price, sitting on clear support this would be the bounce buy today i think. More on it later.
Also I continue to buy Force Protect FRPT.
One word of caution. As bond yields climb it makes it harder to get private equity deals done this combined with tighter loaning standards will start to crimp the M&A activity. We clearly need a big buyout on Monday to keep the momentum going odds are we will get it... ~ SI
Ask and ye shall receive.. geez that didn't take long PENN get's taken out mid day... we are entering Private Equity melt up zone folks. Blackstone IPO is getting a lot of scrutiny have to think that's going to be the marker to the top of this craze.
Using my account total as a barometer I can tell you one thing. In all prior sell offs my stocks have recovered faster than the market and this time they have lagged. That is a clear indicator to me to buy larger cap which I'm trying to do. This damn CBLI has caught my eye though. At wed's week high and 7 week high and looking North despite weak biotech sector... Still waiting on BARE I sent the idea up stream for analysis- I'm trying to buy larger positions in fairly well capitalized names and I think BARE fits the bill. ~ stoney
Using my account total as a barometer I can tell you one thing. In all prior sell offs my stocks have recovered faster than the market and this time they have lagged. That is a clear indicator to me to buy larger cap which I'm trying to do. This damn CBLI has caught my eye though. At wed's week high and 7 week high and looking North despite weak biotech sector... Still waiting on BARE I sent the idea up stream for analysis- I'm trying to buy larger positions in fairly well capitalized names and I think BARE fits the bill. ~ stoney