I am getting my butt handed to me on a daily basis!

[frenchfry]

Next step: Trend continuation.

From the "Volume Test Procedure" I go next to the "Trend continuation" box. While I could follow you until the volume test procedure, I get my first "WTF!?" at the "Trend continuation" box.

This box is a test. As a trader I am somehow supposed to know if the last bar is continuing the current trend or not. How!?

If it is a continuation of the trend I look at the bottom panels of the Modrian table. Look for what? "To Modrian bottom panels" is not in a box it is hanging there with no further connection so following lines as my guides it would look to me as if I am in a dead end.

But the solution is the "Or" in your diagram. If the trend continues, look at the bottom for N-1, or if not then identify EE, context through bands, etc..... here I will come back later.... but basically go to the top panels and identify N-1 events.

I had the "WTF!?" because in my initial thoughts I identified the letters of the ABC and as a next step I would try to create words and sentences by looking at the PP sheets and band definitions. Therefore I couldn't know if I have trend continuation or not at that moment if I didn't first identify EE's, PP's and bands.

But upon further thought I think your reply will contain things like: "Primary... secondary move... the pattern..." Which means that DIRECTLY AFTER the Volume test procedure I KNOW if the trend continues... I don't have to go anywhere else to know it... no bands... no PP's... no EE's... no Modrian...

 

[smwbbe]

Quote from jack hershey:

SNIP

attached is the day's trading (7-15-2013).

I marked the types of turns as well as the types of trends.

I'm working through old charts and logs and can't seem to understand the first 4 bars of 7/15/13.

You've got bar 2 listed as a T1.
Bar 79 on the 12th started a lateral (4 bars total).
Going back and doing a retro, bars 80 and 81 are WAITs.

With that in mind, I've got bar 1, 2 and 3 as T1s and would have expected to see an indication of PP6 on your chart. Instead, I see BO,T1. After reviewing it, I see the reasoning for the BO,T1 but I'm trying to understand your BM placement and what you were looking for to happen in order to reverse. With that BO,T1 you're in "failsafe" mode, right? I see an indication of a C turn.

I'm also perplexed about the indication of bar 11 as a PP2. I don't seem to understand PP2 in general. The volume ranges chart indicates that a T1 is to be suppressed after a P2 has occurred. How could you have a P2 between 2 T1s if you're not allowed to assign the 2nd T1? The T2P definition seems to suppress the assignment of a T2P if it's less than a T1. There must be some nuance of the chart that I'm not understanding. If you could clarify, I'd appreciate it.

Thank you for your time.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from smwbbe:

I'm working through old charts and logs and can't seem to understand the first 4 bars of 7/15/13.

You've got bar 2 listed as a T1.
Bar 79 on the 12th started a lateral (4 bars total).
Going back and doing a retro, bars 80 and 81 are WAITs.

With that in mind, I've got bar 1, 2 and 3 as T1s and would have expected to see an indication of PP6 on your chart. Instead, I see BO,T1. After reviewing it, I see the reasoning for the BO,T1 but I'm trying to understand your BM placement and what you were looking for to happen in order to reverse. With that BO,T1 you're in "failsafe" mode, right? I see an indication of a C turn.

I'm also perplexed about the indication of bar 11 as a PP2. I don't seem to understand PP2 in general. The volume ranges chart indicates that a T1 is to be suppressed after a P2 has occurred. How could you have a P2 between 2 T1s if you're not allowed to assign the 2nd T1? The T2P definition seems to suppress the assignment of a T2P if it's less than a T1. There must be some nuance of the chart that I'm not understanding. If you could clarify, I'd appreciate it.

Thank you for your time.

From bottom to top.

the "between" is a volume measure and NOT an event measure. (change axes to "read" between).

at that time BO T1 had presendence over "routine" (the PP6).

Bookmark is an oldie. All it did then was provide a "wash trade" symbol on a chart. when we decided to up the saftey in trading, we added small profit takings to replace the "wash". To do that we added the sub fractal rtl.

this sailsafe activity eliminated two bands which were hard to process mentally. thus we helped out in two ways: simplifying market decisions and reduced the analysis mental sophisitcation.

If you post snagits for the 12th and 15th I can comment in detail,

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from frenchfry:

Hi Jack,

while I "think" that I understand your current method conceptually and more or less can see the ABC, the letters, words, sentences, etc. and how everything fits together, there are still a lot of wholes which need to be filled.

As a mental start for me let's look at the three diagrams. Btw... I liked the Cycle 1 diagram/method.

1. There are three diagrams on separate sheets of paper. Am I right to put all 3 next to each other: MADA routine ---> Change Routine ----> Reversal Routine. They are all connected and in the flow I could maybe start at the first one and then end on the third one.

2. You distinguish between "Change"-Routine and "Reversal"-Routine. For me they would be the same: when there is change I need to reverse. What is the difference for you? Why do you need a separate sheet for the reversal apart from maybe not having enough space on the "Change"-routine sheet?

Now that I started again, many more questions will follow.

They do flow as you say.

we enlarged this to a 4x8 sheet of plywood. we used illustrator tapes and put the plywood along side our 50+ screen. by using a laser I could jump from one to the other to show the mental sequences. you are correct it speeds things up.;

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from frenchfry:

Hi Jack,

while I "think" that I understand your current method conceptually and more or less can see the ABC, the letters, words, sentences, etc. and how everything fits together, there are still a lot of wholes which need to be filled.

The holes will disappear in a while

As a mental start for me let's look at the three diagrams. Btw... I liked the Cycle 1 diagram/method.

1. There are three diagrams on separate sheets of paper. Am I right to put all 3 next to each other: MADA routine ---> Change Routine ----> Reversal Routine. They are all connected and in the flow I could maybe start at the first one and then end on the third one.

this is true.

2. You distinguish between "Change"-Routine and "Reversal"-Routine. For me they would be the same: when there is change I need to reverse.

True. And change is on the chart; reversal is on the trading platform. we keep those separate to be able to "carve" turns.

What is the difference for you? Why do you need a separate sheet for the reversal apart from maybe not having enough space on the "Change"-routine sheet?

I just pencilled in the flow charts to get the job done. Right now more artisitic and human behavior folks are redoing it all. I no longer have the original drawings.

Now that I started again, many more questions will follow.

Do the charts over to your satisfaction. In this way they will have more utility for you.

 

[smwbbe]

Quote from jack hershey:

From bottom to top.

the "between" is a volume measure and NOT an event measure. (change axes to "read" between).

at that time BO T1 had presendence over "routine" (the PP6).

Bookmark is an oldie. All it did then was provide a "wash trade" symbol on a chart. when we decided to up the saftey in trading, we added small profit takings to replace the "wash". To do that we added the sub fractal rtl.

this sailsafe activity eliminated two bands which were hard to process mentally. thus we helped out in two ways: simplifying market decisions and reduced the analysis mental sophisitcation.

If you post snagits for the 12th and 15th I can comment in detail.

Attached is a snagit for EOD 7/12/13 and the open on the 15th. Thank you in advance for detailed comments.

 

[frenchfry]

Hi Jack,

on the "Change Routine" sheet you seem to have two filters for trend type determination: "Filter 1" and "Filter 2". See enclosed graphic.

What are they? I don't remember to have seen them explained, yet.

 

[smwbbe]

Quote from jack hershey:
SNIP (7/12/13)
So assign a P1 to bar 79 where you are in a short sentiment.
Bar 80 is the second bar of a FBP (degapped). Put Wait in the Event column.
Bar 81 forms a lateral 3 since it is entirely inside the shadow of bar 79. Put a Wait in the event column.
Sentiment/short
Trend set/ Set A
Price status/ lat 3
Volume status/ P1
Bar 1 entry/ short on open.

Quote from tea_leaf:
SNIP
In trying to understand your thinking process, I copied all your annotations to my charts (7/15/13).

I am trying like the dickens to understand the assignment of P1 for bar 1 on the 15th. In looking at the JH chart I don't see a specific P1 assignment, but I do see a Pink ray from the top of bar 79 that appears to extend to bar 1. On tea_leaf's chart, I do see a P1 on bar 1 on the 15th.

a) Is bar 1 a P1 and if so, would someone kindly explain? I was trying to assign a P2 to it as I was under the impression that at bar 4 in a lateral, you go back and use the information inside a lateral. I've read about this process occurring at bar 4 and bar 7. Even so, my P2 would be wrong as 80 and 81 are waits so 1 would be the first T1 (NOT a P1 as it isn't >= bar 79). Next in OOE = T1.

b) Something isn't clicking with the BM,REV in this situation for me. It was placed at the bottom of bar 2 where the BO,T1 occurred. With the BO, T1 you place the BM at the bottom of bar 2, and you're looking for a bar to close on the high side of the BM, correct? Bar 3 closes below that so another BM is placed on the low of that bar. Bar 4 does close on the high side and you reverse. Am I understanding the process of using the BM in this situation? If so, great! But I'd still like to understand the P1 on bar 1...

Thanks to whomever can provide clarity - I really appreciate it - as I can't seem to get past this example.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from smwbbe:

I am trying like the dickens to understand the assignment of P1 for bar 1 on the 15th. In looking at the JH chart I don't see a specific P1 assignment, but I do see a Pink ray from the top of bar 79 that appears to extend to bar 1. On tea_leaf's chart, I do see a P1 on bar 1 on the 15th.

a) Is bar 1 a P1 and if so, would someone kindly explain? I was trying to assign a P2 to it as I was under the impression that at bar 4 in a lateral, you go back and use the information inside a lateral. I've read about this process occurring at bar 4 and bar 7. Even so, my P2 would be wrong as 80 and 81 are waits so 1 would be the first T1 (NOT a P1 as it isn't >= bar 79). Next in OOE = T1.

b) Something isn't clicking with the BM,REV in this situation for me. It was placed at the bottom of bar 2 where the BO,T1 occurred. With the BO, T1 you place the BM at the bottom of bar 2, and you're looking for a bar to close on the high side of the BM, correct? Bar 3 closes below that so another BM is placed on the low of that bar. Bar 4 does close on the high side and you reverse. Am I understanding the process of using the BM in this situation? If so, great! But I'd still like to understand the P1 on bar 1...

Thanks to whomever can provide clarity - I really appreciate it - as I can't seem to get past this example.

I checked back into my boxes of 3 ring binders. I found the chart you are looking at. My first try involved the wrong year.

so it is attached.

 

[jack hershey]

As you can see now, I do a carryover of the current annotations.

The rtl is "offset" by the difference in the close to open price. (see pink vertical measure labelled "degapped")

This makes thrend analysis have continuity. you can also see my instructions to myself fo the entry.

I think all your Q's disappear.