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I am getting my butt handed to me on a daily basis!
- Thread starter jeredlbb
- Start date
Thank you all for the exchanges of recomendations on how to polish your trading approaches.
I was glad to hear that the 10 to 12 leading indicators of price will be coming up.
Playing black Jack in Vegas is best done using the little cards in the pocket in the back of the book "Beat the Dealer". Personally I found memorizing the 5's Theory wa the quickest way from point A to point B.
You do not need to go to vegas to spend time to get your method down for making money playing cards.
Card counting comes very quickly. and so does using the context of the count to determine the playing strategy.
The lookup tables and the volume test procedure is all you need to do reversals after entering on the opening bar using carryover.
"The Pattern" is a generic model of the "normal" set C trend.
I went through the Set B and if you got to copy it before it was deleted, you could see the tweaking that was involved in the modification that occurs from the normal.
PEP remains as the paradigm and so do the three applications: PVT, SCT and SSR.
As knowledge and skills are acquired through well done drills, then a trader becomes more effective and efficient.
So we work very thoroughly using price cases to "know that we know" when to measure volume. I worked from the hitch to show the variation of cases and arrive at all possibilities. this is a trader's first step up in effectiveness. When money is not being offered, you relax and get ready for the next opporutnity.
The Modrian Table is a big deal. If and when you see to trade by knowing in advance a reversal turn is coming, then, you trade from an informed vantage point.
In black Jack it is the same, you know in advance when the decks are favorable. In this playing context, you using a cool strategy to take advantage of the house's not having a positive mathematical expectation. When the expectation goes away you return to just paying tuition.
The Modrian Table is arranged so you can do the equivalent of count cards. you go across the Modrian Table from left to right as a trend forms.
You measure trend forming by keeping each bar monitored and analyzed.
From the prior C turn, you begin a new left window.
does your mind ever do games or tricky analysis ti see if you can find the shortest trend possible? It is after hours and on the weekend. Can you cut loose and try to sneak around all the info and find cool market occurances that are great and quick money makers?
Here is a quiz.
You just had a c turn and it was a reversal.
1. What is the name of the EE that gives another reversal ASAP?
2. what was the prior c turns EE?
3. what was the minimum time that could have passed for this to happen?
4. sketch the pic of the bars
5. draw a pair of circles to show the least money you could have made.
6. draw a pair of bars to show the most money you could have made.
I was glad to hear that the 10 to 12 leading indicators of price will be coming up.
Playing black Jack in Vegas is best done using the little cards in the pocket in the back of the book "Beat the Dealer". Personally I found memorizing the 5's Theory wa the quickest way from point A to point B.
You do not need to go to vegas to spend time to get your method down for making money playing cards.
Card counting comes very quickly. and so does using the context of the count to determine the playing strategy.
The lookup tables and the volume test procedure is all you need to do reversals after entering on the opening bar using carryover.
"The Pattern" is a generic model of the "normal" set C trend.
I went through the Set B and if you got to copy it before it was deleted, you could see the tweaking that was involved in the modification that occurs from the normal.
PEP remains as the paradigm and so do the three applications: PVT, SCT and SSR.
As knowledge and skills are acquired through well done drills, then a trader becomes more effective and efficient.
So we work very thoroughly using price cases to "know that we know" when to measure volume. I worked from the hitch to show the variation of cases and arrive at all possibilities. this is a trader's first step up in effectiveness. When money is not being offered, you relax and get ready for the next opporutnity.
The Modrian Table is a big deal. If and when you see to trade by knowing in advance a reversal turn is coming, then, you trade from an informed vantage point.
In black Jack it is the same, you know in advance when the decks are favorable. In this playing context, you using a cool strategy to take advantage of the house's not having a positive mathematical expectation. When the expectation goes away you return to just paying tuition.
The Modrian Table is arranged so you can do the equivalent of count cards. you go across the Modrian Table from left to right as a trend forms.
You measure trend forming by keeping each bar monitored and analyzed.
From the prior C turn, you begin a new left window.
does your mind ever do games or tricky analysis ti see if you can find the shortest trend possible? It is after hours and on the weekend. Can you cut loose and try to sneak around all the info and find cool market occurances that are great and quick money makers?
Here is a quiz.
You just had a c turn and it was a reversal.
1. What is the name of the EE that gives another reversal ASAP?
2. what was the prior c turns EE?
3. what was the minimum time that could have passed for this to happen?
4. sketch the pic of the bars
5. draw a pair of circles to show the least money you could have made.
6. draw a pair of bars to show the most money you could have made.
Okay that was fun.
Lets do this quiz 10 different ways by using the same format BUT a different context.
We will do this to create a surprise understanding of how all the lookup tables work together.
Do the following:
Think up ten different contexts.
So it is the weekend. you have some time and if you thought about the quiz and making up contexts, maybe you could lso just go to the charts of all of last week and play the quiz bar by bar.
you would learn that it is very hard to just have a turn creep up on you and catch you by surprise.
Lets say you are into stats. Why not just do the distribution of trend types with p < 0.005.
For PVT the one pager is good for a sample as small as 400,000. this cuts the risk on a given hold.
Anyway, the Modrian table really sets you up nicely for taking the full offr of the market.
In another thread a seasons CW guy said that a person could judge his performance as a portion of the daily range. He thought 1/2 was pretty good. do you ever think this guy could switch the word portiion to "multiple". That's too personal to consider, I guess.
Lets do this quiz 10 different ways by using the same format BUT a different context.
We will do this to create a surprise understanding of how all the lookup tables work together.
Do the following:
Think up ten different contexts.
So it is the weekend. you have some time and if you thought about the quiz and making up contexts, maybe you could lso just go to the charts of all of last week and play the quiz bar by bar.
you would learn that it is very hard to just have a turn creep up on you and catch you by surprise.
Lets say you are into stats. Why not just do the distribution of trend types with p < 0.005.
For PVT the one pager is good for a sample as small as 400,000. this cuts the risk on a given hold.
Anyway, the Modrian table really sets you up nicely for taking the full offr of the market.
In another thread a seasons CW guy said that a person could judge his performance as a portion of the daily range. He thought 1/2 was pretty good. do you ever think this guy could switch the word portiion to "multiple". That's too personal to consider, I guess.
Quote from jack hershey:
Okay that was fun.
Lets do this quiz 10 different ways by using the same format BUT a different context.
We will do this to create a surprise understanding of how all the lookup tables work together.
Hi Jack,
Could you explain about the interlocking fractals for this method? If I understand correctly, each EE is lower fractal, and C to C segment is trading fractal. How about higher TF fractal? Thanks for your reply..
Quote from tea_leaf:
Hi Jack,
Could you explain about the interlocking fractals for this method? If I understand correctly, each EE is lower fractal, and C to C segment is trading fractal. How about higher TF fractal? Thanks for your reply..
thanks for your Q.
All fractal interlock. On any TF you can observe at least three interlocking fractals.
The 5 min TF places the trading fractal in between a faster fractal and a slower fractal.
Price and volume bars (5 min) allow you to observe the P and V elements on the faster fractal than the trading fractal. It is on the trading fractal that the c turn to c turn reversals are made.
Price gives permission to measure volume. An XB or XR is required.
The test procedure yields elements, bar by bar, on volume, the independent variable. P1 to T1 to P2 in volume is the primary bar by bar elements on the faster sub fractal of the trading fractal. A sub sub faster fractal allows the secondary T2P to T2F to P3P last leg to be emphasized.
Four trend types follow a succession ordinarily. But often there is a context which precipitates incomplete trends. Occassionally, fully formed trends continue to drift.
Set A and set B are incomplete. Set C is the complete trend and Set D is the drift trend.
EE's of volume measurements precipitate all turns. Any EE can be any turn type. This facet of completeness eliminates all noise, all flaws, and all anomalies.
Price permission then volume test procedure reate OOE's that end with EE's. The EE is named using precision mathematics. Then a turn type is assigned to the EE.
By using the trend type A, B, C or D, the EE may be found in the Modrian Table panels for c turns at n moment. At a prior n - 1 moment an EE is known as well.
All trends begin with c turns.
the inital context is the Set A type trend. When the next EE occurs, a panel check is performed. If the EE is there in the n column, then a check is made to see if the n - 1 EE is linked. A linking failure means an a turn has occurred and it is so noted in annotating and logging. This means the trend continues and the Set A context is extinguished and the Set B context begins.
At the next EE, a c turn is searched for once again. If it is not present and linked properly, then a b turn has happened. The Set B context is extinguished and the set C context begins.
At the next EE, a c turn is searched for once again If the EE is there in the n column, then a check is made to see if the n - 1 EE is linked. A linking failure means an a turn has occurred and it is so noted in annotating and logging. This means the trend continues and the Set C context is extinguished and the Set D context begins.
At the next EE, no c turn is searched for. A b turn has happened. The set D context continues.
At the next EE, a c turn is searched for once again. If the EE is there in the n column, then a check is made to see if the n - 1 EE is linked. A linking failure means an a turn has occurred and it is so noted in annotating and logging. This means the trend continues and the Set D context continues.
Set D continues as long as a c turn is not found after any b turn.
As you see the trading fractal can have many a, b turns while not reaching a trend ending c turn for c turn to c turn trading.
Making all the lookup tables and the procedural rules has not been done before. But by using a deductive systemic approach it was possible to design a precision completely defined sytem of operation of a market. This works in all granular markets.
It is possible to chose any one of the 7 market fractals for trading. Just select a time frame and make sure the trading fractal is the middle observable fractal of the three observable fractals.
Because the rth margin is different from the overnight margin, give due consideration to this. I chose the 5 minute TF and I exit just before the margm change. Then I calculate the carry over and enter the next day within 36 seconds of the open. because I use a MAT approach, all my actions are sums of partial fills. At the level I operate (100 ES contracts), I have no slippage.
Quote from jack hershey:
thanks for your Q.
All fractal interlock. On any TF you can observe at least three interlocking fractals.
The 5 min TF places the trading fractal in between a faster fractal and a slower fractal.
Thank you for your detailed reply, Jack. Is it possible to see the slower fractal on 5min TF?
Quote from tea_leaf:
Thank you for your detailed reply, Jack. Is it possible to see the slower fractal on 5min TF?
Yes it is.
There is a lot to chart reading. Some people take years to be Comfortable.
Attached is Friday's chart, what I see on the slower fractal (using CW terminology) is a short ending and then an inverted saucer.
On the trading fractal I just went in long on the open and reversed on bar 4 to complete the long that was carried over.
To see the Depression we are in takes looking at a very slow fractal (the slowest ecomometrically speaking). But prgamtically, you are surrounded by traders a lot of which are on the wy out the bak door. Trading isn't for everyone and there is this strange crust around the perimeter.
Myths fester and con men become venders to the unwary. They make movies about sensational things and people.
But inside the FI, there is a servic industry that provides and gets paid. Most connectedness to markts via accounts and streams of reliable infomation.
To extend mankind tools are invented and used. A lot of people on ET think tools wear out. Others know that the correct tools do not wear out.
The catbird seat is a nice place to be. Immunity to BS is glorious, in fact.
So as you look at Friday as a short followed by an inverted saucer, let yourself step into the trading fractal where the full offer of the market may be taken.
There was a "normal" type trend from bar 4 to 19 (the c to a to b to c turns.) This was the first 20% of the day and 13 of the 21 points required to double capital happened. The open nailed 3 points before that.
so the day is a relaxed summer Friday and Price movement is going to double capital at least.
I did have a beginner ask me what happens when the system doesn't work. This is a money question and not a "how does the system of the operation of the market work" question. So at that time, I had to handle his not destroying any part of his mind irreversably. Below is what he experienced.
Between bar 19 and 34 the market was in a drift type (D) trend. No money to be made but a lot of science to be applied to "know you know", this was a: c to a to b to a to b to c type segment.
Type Set A trends followed and wrapped up on bars 37, 39, and 43.
Normal set C trends followed anding on bars 50 and 58.
Type Set A trends followed and wrapped up on bars 62,64, and 66.
the last three trades of the day were types B, B and A and ending on bars 70,72, and 77, respectively.
Every trend maks a fews points or keep you on the correct side of the market.
The account is going to be swept on Friday anyway and it is not unusual to pull quite a bit out to get back to the Monday starting level.
So the inverted saucer is a slower fractal container for the trading fractal trades. From trade to trade the type of trend changes.
Here are the things you always know you know bar by bar:
1. the price case.
2. the volume case.
3. what type of turn just happened and what possible turn is coming up.
4. what type of trend you are in.
5. by using the n-1 turn you know the n turn possibilities.
Everything is done with precision lookup tables. you have pages in a 3 ring binder. the pages are tabbed for convenience. you alway have the correct page open.
If you are a programmer, then when you read the above, you see it as an automated ATS that is takng the full offer of the market ALL the time EVERY DAY.
Movement has a context on several levels so you always know that you know.
Who cares what the system looks like as long as you start at the correct place.
People who do not have edges are meeting other people who do not have edges. Persons with edges avoid people who do not have edges. This is how winners and losers are winowed into to piles.
My chart (the first full day of our new trading room (shown on a wall screen)) shows we are using precision TA and making money all the time. Enjoy.
MS posted the normal and drift Modrian panels (4) as his top example of BS. He is one happy guy. Use his posted item to see the pairs (N-1 and N turns) Each set C or Set D type trend c turn is listed on that Modrian table.