I Am Betting On Oil Price to Collapse,

Random.Capital · Jul 14, 2012

Quote from adadadog:

$70 WTI is the threshold for shale oil.

I consider that good news. We're not going to starve with oil at those prices, and there is clearly abundant supply at those prices and above.

ogarbitrage · Jul 15, 2012

Quote from adadadog:

Pros:
3. Euro crisis;
4. fiscal cliff;
5. strong dollar;

When Euro Crisis, then fiscal cliff, then weak dollar. Oil in USD terms will be more expensive tomorrow than it is today. Especially given the fiscal cliff.

Might as well short gold as well.

Quote from adadadog:

I have three short contracts qmu2 now, will add new contracts from their proceeds.

You're short 3 front month minis but your position is long term?

You would be better served trading the back of the curve. There is huge backwardation in the back of WTI and many compelling Dec/Dec and Dec/June spreads. You will probably find better margin on the spreads as well.

adadadog · Jul 15, 2012

Quote from ogarbitrage:

When Euro Crisis, then fiscal cliff, then weak dollar. Oil in USD terms will be >more expensive tomorrow than it is today. Especially given the fiscal cliff.

>Might as well short gold as well.

Euro Crisis and fiscal cliff will decrease oil demand. fiscal cliff will weaken us economy so weaken us dollar, but also pull dollar out of circulation which strengthen dollar.
You need to balance the trade-off.
I was burned in longing gold. want to stay away: printing causing inflation, not-print causing deflation, gold manipulation by central banks.

>You're short 3 front month minis but your position is long term?

liquidity is the concern. I will do rollover.

>You would be better served trading the back of the curve. There is huge backwardation in the back of WTI and many compelling Dec/Dec and Dec/June spreads. You will probably find better margin on the spreads as well.

oldtime · Jul 15, 2012

to each his own, as far as me and my family go we will never be short crude as long as I am alive. It might go down, but I doubt it will collapse.

If I was going to go short, I would try shorting USO, since they can't seem to make any money over there even when CL is going up.

vicirek · Jul 15, 2012

Presidential Election is driving oil price now and it clearly indicates that oil price has nothing to do with supply/demand but local and global politics. It is used as proxy for tax without increasing taxes and for money transfer abroad without raising money laundering flags. So it is safe to short until November!

mr double · Jul 15, 2012

very stupid bet

traderslair · Jul 15, 2012

i'm long CL

vicirek · Jul 15, 2012

Are you talking to me!? Then add the fact that some idiots started drilling in the US and morons from Canada want o build pipeline. This is big no no. How we can manipulate price of oil then? Oil price has to go down so it will be uneconomical to drill in the US and Canada until this will be under strict monopoly control again. That what is happening with NG now anyway.

mr double · Jul 15, 2012

Quote from vicirek:

Are you talking to me!? Then add the fact that some idiots started drilling in the US and morons from Canada want o build pipeline. This is big no no. How we can manipulate price of oil then? Oil price has to go down so it will be uneconomical to drill in the US and Canada until this will be under strict monopoly control again. That what is happening with NG now anyway.

no,i am talking to myself

vicirek · Jul 16, 2012

Quote from mr double:

no,i am talking to myself

Good sense of humor.

Oil below 60 spells trouble for oil sands but then somebody in Arabia might be on life support or there is loud blast somewhere and oil price moves again to the least expected level.