I am a new guy, how much do I expect to lose before I make it

Quote from SethArb:

sigh ... if you can see the hidden meaning in this photo

* hint * how does it relate to the "real world "

you are on the right track to making a living in this biz

good luck kid

www.coinworks.com.au/pdfs/medCur/Proof 1930 Penny.jpg

:cool:
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Heads or Tails: 50/50 probability of win/loss. So, each trade has an equal expectancy of success of failure. The only way you can capitalise on such randomness is to let winners run and cut losers quickly and objectively. In this way, you can have 3 losers and the next winner will potentially be meaty enough to bring you above water. Money management is therefore key as is an unemotional regard for the negative/positive expectancy of each trade. Life is unpredictable and random. Only our own behaviour is something we can guess at. We are too likely to take small profits and hold on to losers in the hope of a reversal. If you can master your emotions and toss the coin with a clear set of objectives, then you could well succeed. Good luck.
 
You can only use what you decide to risk. Decide what your personal parameters are and proceed. It might be that you are prepared to lose$1,500 before taking a break and rethinking your strategy.

No matter what you decide spend time on a simulator. No sense risking real money from day one.
 
Quote from cap'ncod:

Heads or Tails: 50/50 probability of win/loss. So, each trade has an equal expectancy of success of failure. The only way you can capitalise on such randomness is to let winners run and cut losers quickly and objectively. In this way, you can have 3 losers and the next winner will potentially be meaty enough to bring you above water. Money management is therefore key as is an unemotional regard for the negative/positive expectancy of each trade. Life is unpredictable and random. Only our own behaviour is something we can guess at. We are too likely to take small profits and hold on to losers in the hope of a reversal. If you can master your emotions and toss the coin with a clear set of objectives, then you could well succeed. Good luck.
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He won't use that penny...it is worth too much to scratch.....:D

Another solution to see how much you can lose upfront...contact Don Millar...you will have good company.
 
Quote from cap'ncod:

Heads or Tails: 50/50 probability of win/loss. So, each trade has an equal expectancy of success of failure. The only way you can capitalise on such randomness is to let winners run and cut losers quickly and objectively. In this way, you can have 3 losers and the next winner will potentially be meaty enough to bring you above water. Money management is therefore key as is an unemotional regard for the negative/positive expectancy of each trade. Life is unpredictable and random. Only our own behaviour is something we can guess at. We are too likely to take small profits and hold on to losers in the hope of a reversal. If you can master your emotions and toss the coin with a clear set of objectives, then you could well succeed. Good luck.
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some good points, but lets start with losing 100% a couple of times as the tuition fee , and then realising that mastering and using your emotions is the key.
 
Quote from Kap:

some good points, but lets start with losing 100% a couple of times as the tuition fee , and then realising that mastering and using your emotions is the key.
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Unfortunately, you are probably right as we only seem to learn by trying and in trying trading, losses are inevitable. Also, sim will not give the necessary emotional 'stress testing' that is crucial for self development.
 
It depends on what you do and how you do it. For example if you swing trade stocks and have the patience and smarts to trade 10-100 shares (depending on the price) for six months, you'll have a fighting chance.
Quote from doublef:

I like trading, I want to make money by trading, but from what I read on ET, people lose a lot first.

My question is: How much should I expect to lose before I make money?

Any ideas?
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You shouldn't even trade any real money until you have a method that has positive expectancy.

You should spend at minimum 3 months just watching and evaluating before even attempting to place any trades. And, if you do decide to trade after 3 months, trade the absolute minimum (position size wise). The name of the game is survival until you learn the ropes.

Quote from doublef:

I like trading, I want to make money by trading, but from what I read on ET, people lose a lot first.

My question is: How much should I expect to lose before I make money?

Any ideas?
More...
 
Another point: there are 'difficult' markets and trades and ones that are 'easier'. Wait for the easier trades and sit on your hands for the rest of the time-this alone will give you a better chance than most who are desperate to be sucked in to the depression/euphoria that characterises the gyrations of the market. In other words, if you chase the market you will lose. You have to have a clear entry and move on if you do not get hit.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Just not the time to get into the market. It's a rigged game at this point.
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Are you saying that right now the market is not random. To me that is an opportunity.
 
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