Hypothesis: Technical Analysis only works in the immediate short-term

[Streetwise]

Having used both, I'd take a proper trendline over linear regression any day of the week for the my purposes at least.

Elliot Waves and other wave count generators don't work - at least I've personally never seen it hold up with any consistency over time. But they do make convincing charts after the fact as the historical wave counts and locations change with the current market price action. Again, that's been my own observation.

LR IS objectively produced whereas trendlines are not, that's the point at hand , it's irrelevant what you think.

Nothing really 'works' but again that is not the point. EW are hand drawn rubbish, they could improve no end if you knew what you were doing. But hey it's up to anyone what so called indicators they use

 

[Streetwise]

Have you actually tried drawing parallell trendlines before calling something stupid?

I have tried it and the concept of hand drawn lines is bogus subjective stuff.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Disclaimer:

Prices are driven by supply and demand. In the long-run, fundamental changes in the investment vehicle in question (or its environment) are what will cause the largest shifts in supply and demand. Technical analysis cannot predict surprises (nor can fundamental analysis for that matter, although I believe it can prepare you for them better by identifying specific risks and allowing you to calculate for them accordingly). Given this knowledge, why do so many use TA in their long-term analysis of the future?

All supply and demand factors and fundamentals as well as sentiment are contained in the price/chart/indicator combo. Fundamental analysis is not needed in trading. Technical analysis is.

 

[tonysoprano]

Having used both, I'd take a proper trendline over linear regression any day of the week for the my purposes at least.

Elliot Waves and other wave count generators don't work - at least I've personally never seen it hold up with any consistency over time. But they do make convincing charts after the fact as the historical wave counts and locations change with the current market price action. Again, that's been my own observation.

Would like to see a screen cap (or two) of an example, on the same contract, of both a regression line/channel and a proper trend line and a discussion of what makes the TL proper and preferred over the reg channel. It's hard to understand without a visual. Thanks

 

[Streetwise]

Would like to see a screen cap (or two) of an example, on the same contract, of both a regression line/channel and a proper trend line and a discussion of what makes the TL proper and preferred over the reg channel. It's hard to understand without a visual. Thanks

Simple.

RL is calculated by a regression matrix - a purely objective method (maths) whereas TLs can be drawn any old how, by no OBJECTIVE basis. Therefore any old line that very roughly resembles a trend is the same. Connecting Higher lows, higher highs, lowest low to highest high and vice versa, a line right though the middle of data is all the same as far being all subjective.

 

[learner2007]

Simple.

RL is calculated by a regression matrix - a purely objective method (maths) whereas TLs can be drawn any old how, by no OBJECTIVE basis. Therefore any old line that very roughly resembles a trend is the same. Connecting Higher lows, higher highs, lowest low to highest high and vice versa, a line right though the middle of data is all the same as far being all subjective.

You seem to be too far gone to be convinced otherwise. But for those who would like to hear the other side of the story, there are some basic rules for drawing trend lines correctly as I posted years ago in another thread.
Your statement "TLs can be drawn any old how" is most likely the cause of your disbelief.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...e-biggest-lie-ever.295480/page-5#post-4201408

 

[Streetwise]

You seem to be too far gone to be convinced otherwise. But for those who would like to hear the other side of the story, there are some basic rules for drawing trend lines correctly as I posted years ago in another thread.
Your statement "TLs can be drawn any old how" is most likely the cause of your disbelief.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...e-biggest-lie-ever.295480/page-5#post-4201408

Hmm, the old cognitive dissonance routine eh? C&P ... But hey it's up to anyone what so called indicators they use.

And who made up these " rules ", you ? What makes that better than any ' rules ' anyone else makes ? They are nothing but figments of your own bias. Connecting Higher lows, higher highs, lowest low to highest high and vice versa, a line right though the middle of data what's the difference it is all the same subjective nonsense.

 

[themickey]

Hmm, the old cognitive dissonance routine eh? C&P ... But hey it's up to anyone what so called indicators they use.

And who made up these " rules ", you ? What makes that better than any ' rules ' anyone else makes ? They are nothing but figments of your own bias. Connecting Higher lows, higher highs, lowest low to highest high and vice versa, a line right though the middle of data what's the difference it is all the same subjective nonsense.

Sounds like Surf talking!
Expert in all things trading, speaking with authority, self assurance that your opinion goes for all traders.
Heard it all before, cocky but FOS.

 

[learner2007]

And who made up these " rules ", you ?

No, it's basic common knowledge that's known by those who have made the effort to learn.

 

[tonysoprano]

Simple.

RL is calculated by a regression matrix - a purely objective method (maths) whereas TLs can be drawn any old how, by no OBJECTIVE basis. Therefore any old line that very roughly resembles a trend is the same. Connecting Higher lows, higher highs, lowest low to highest high and vice versa, a line right though the middle of data is all the same as far being all subjective.

Not true that there are no objective means of drawing TLs. For example Tom Demark has 100% objective rules for drawing them as can be seen in software that display his indicators. I understand regression lines and also that there are 100% objective ways of drawing TLs. The point of the post was to engage Bone into a discussion of what he believes is the proper way to draw TLs. The way he draws them are likely to be subjective but seeing how a professional trader does it might, possibly, be enlightening.