Here's how two different traders approach the same idea. Bill and Ted both fade short term volatility. Each will tell you that they're the type who "buys when everyone else is panicking." Each has enjoyed success in choppy, mean reversion markets. While Bill is methodical and technical in his approach Ted considers himself more of an intuitive gunslinger.
On a sharply lower open both Bill and Ted become buyers. Bill though has analyzed prior gap down opens and knows his thesis is violated if prices break down more than a few ticks below the opening range. Bill then places a sell stop at an appropriate level. Bill is merely playing the odds. He realizes you "win some lose some" and he's confident enough in his methodology that no matter the result of any individual trade, over a wide enough sample he'll be profitable. Bill also knows that a single huge loser can wipe out weeks of small, steady profits.
Ted on the other hand lacks a cohesive plan. If the market goes lower after his purchase he'll rely on anecdotal observations. "Yes I'm stuck long higher but the markets already had a historic break. A rally is certainly due. If we plunge further I'll just buy a bit more. Besides the Fed could ease at any moment."
While Ted is hoping an unpredictable event will still bail him out, Bill is flat after taking a small inconsequential loss. Bill is now in a detached frame of mind allowing him to wait for another measured opportunity.
In real life we know that at the end of the day it's quite possible that Ted's wild adventure will work out to his short term advantage. In fact Ted may even console Bill, "Sorry you took that loss off the open. I knew this stuff was over done so I added to my longs. I don't let bad prices drive me out of a position." The seeds of further problems have been sewn. While Bill views his loss philosophically - he wouldn't do anything different - even in hindsight - Ted also isn't going to do anything different. He is emboldened by his experience.
So a few days later when the market gaps lower once again both Bill and Ted will be buyers. This time Bill treads lightly. He'll recognize that buying dips is no longer the strong odds play it had been and accordingly he'll cut his size back and tighten his stop. Ted though may even trade bigger this go around. After all the last session it worked beautifully. This time is different though.
As the Dow trades at -500 or -600, Ted is thinking "no way does the Fed or they allow the market to close at -800. If I sell now for certain I'll be selling the low of the move." Ted continues to buy and hold as the market closes on its low of the day, down 750 points. That night Ted's brokerage house informs him that he's on margin call and that his positions will be sold out for him on the next day's open. Because of the heavy forced liquidation by Ted and his ilk the market once again opens sharply lower.
This time instead of being a buyer when "everyone is panicking", Ted is forced to sell his holdings. Who buys them? Bill! Bill will once again do as he always does. He'll fade the open with a prearranged stop loss. This time instead of being stopped for a quick loss like the prior couple of times the market does indeed make its low on the open and Bill not only recoups his two small previous losses but makes a good deal of money on the subsequent rally. Two traders, two similar methodologies but a world of difference in strategy.
The lessons we all need to learn is anything can happen. As I write this the price of Volkswagen has just risen fivefold in Frankfort and for a brief moment Volkswagen is the biggest company in the world! All on the back of short covering by funds who've lost billions of Euros on the move.
Every trade no matter how innocuous must have an uncle point. Be it a stop on equity or a technical level at some point you must enter survival mode. A few days from now we'll examine how longer time frame participants can stay disciplined even though they're already less leveraged.
Kurt J. Eckhardt began his trading career in 1982 as an active floor trader in the Treasury Bond pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. Today Kurt is president of Eckhardt Research and Trading which offers the first ever futures pool to trade live on line while educating clients. Please go to
www.Ecktrade.com for details and contact information.