This will hit somewhere from the southern tip of FL to Melbourne. It's guaranteed to be a Cat 3. I give it 60% chance hitting Cat 4 and 30% chance Cat 5. If that trough drifts more to the north it will be a cat 5. It's projected to dip to the southwest for a few days, the further south it goes, the stronger it will get.
I have a passion for tracking these things. I told all my friends that if Katrina did as forecasted and drifting SW and went directly over the Gulf Loop that it would be a Cat 5. It did.
I also mentioned on another trading site that there was a 80% chance of Gustav reaching Cat 4 before ANY forecasters did while it was 60mph.
Hurricane Andrew was an amazing freak of nature. It was a classic buzzsaw, the most beautiful infrared pic I've ever seen was the famous landfall of Hurricane Andrew.
Just took a peek at the 11pm Nat Hurricane 5 day plot....NOT GOOD at all....it seems that our only saving grace will be a low pressure system coming from the mid west..if it stalls we could be in deep,deep poop.
The fact that it is a small hurricane in size means diddly squat as the winds 120 mph are no fun,any time...the most I have experienced were approx. 100+ and that is a scream you don't forget...like a 1000 rats all caught at the same time and it seems to go on for an eternity.
If it is a cat. 3+ ,I will be pulling up stumps and getting the family out of here possibly west coast florida ( like a million others at the same time) as I live on the intra coastal.