Human Equity Analysts challenged by Quants

Trading profits are 2nd to dick size when it comes to most-lied-about topics.

So, you MIGHT know ONE person who has consistently made decent returns with canned indicators.

Further, I'm pretty sure you don't know anybody who makes those returns with, say, half a billion dollars.


Quote from nzbryant:

Ok, fact 1: These quants make 5-20% returns. Maybe 30% in the case of Renaissance.

Fact 2: Nitro and some others say 1 in 100 traders use indicators, rest use math edge.

Implication 1: 99 in 100 use fundies (and mutual funds do worse than the index) or quant methods (see returns above) - so 99 in 100 are NOT getting 40%+ returns consistently.

Implication 2: Basically noone gets really good returns trading.

New fact 1: I know some people who make 100-300% a year and have done for five years.

Implication 3: Dont listen to everything Nitro and Braswell say else you will end up in the 99 out of 100 who make 5-30% a year.

There is nothing special about 'quant data' that is 'better' than indicators. If there was then these "99/100" would be getting better returns than they do.

Question 1: Nitro - so you use quant methods unrelated to indicators? Some OHLC stuff? So you get the same average returns as all the other quants?
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Quote from nzbryant:

New fact 1: I know some people who make 100-300% a year and have done for five years.
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1. "Profits" by themselves mean little without stating risk and volatility. A 15% figure a year with no leverage and very little volatility can easily be transformed into 20, 25 or 30% with the right leverage if - and only if - the volatility and risk are very low under all conditions.

2. Let me take a quick guess here. The people you know make 200% on figures < 1m. It's a lot harder (next to impossible without risking to blow up overnight) to make 200% if you manage $5 bln in funds like the funds you're comparing the performance to.
 
Guess no one told John Arnold...

:D

Quote from makloda:

1. "Profits" by themselves mean little without stating risk and volatility. A 15% figure a year with no leverage and very little volatility can easily be transformed into 20, 25 or 30% with the right leverage if - and only if - the volatility and risk are very low under all conditions.

2. Let me take a quick guess here. The people you know make 200% on figures < 1m. It's a lot harder (next to impossible without risking to blow up overnight) to make 200% if you manage $5 bln in funds like the funds you're comparing the performance to.
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Quote from makloda:


2. Let me take a quick guess here. The people you know make 200% on figures < 1m. It's a lot harder (next to impossible without risking to blow up overnight) to make 200% if you manage $5 bln in funds like the funds you're comparing the performance to.
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True, they are small personal traders. But then so am I. We dont need to manage $5Bn to have a wealthy life.
 
Quote from jasonbraswell:

Trading profits are 2nd to dick size when it comes to most-lied-about topics...
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Is 9" big? Just wondering where I stand in the distribution.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

The methods that I am interested in require intensive capital. They easily scale to $100M+. They are very low risk (5-10% drawdowns max) and are in the 25%-35% (using no leverage) returns a year category. They would rarely have more than two losing months a year, and are extremely unlikely to have two losing months in a row.

nitro
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Well, then nitro, here are some incubators :

Sponsor Contact Funds

Asset Alliance Bruce Lipnick 11
New York 212-207-4748

BRI Partners info@BriPartners.com 10
Chicago

Capital Z Management Elizabeth Danes 19
New York 212-965-2374

Decision Capital Management Paul DiFrancesco 6
La Jolla, Calif. 858-729-0222

Fairfield Greenwich Jennifer Keeney 17
New York 212-319-6060

Focus Investment Mazen Jabban 20+
New York 212-798-6177

Fortune Group Simon Hopkins 15
London 44-207-355-2000

FrontPoint Partners Gil Caffray 17
Greenwich, Conn. 203-622-5300

Harcourt Marcel Herbst 35
Zurich 41-13-651-0000

Hardt Group Jeff Landle 7
New York 212- 523-0207

Jefferies Group Tom Witz 7
New York 212-284-2300

J.P. Morgan Incubator Strategies Simon Lack 8
New York 212-899-2450

Larch Lane Advisors Todd Williams 14
Purchase, N.Y. 914-798-7600

Liberty Ermitage Jonathan Wauton 7
Isle of Jersey 44-153-461-5500

Man Group: Man Global Strategies Nick Cavalla 40
London 44-207-144-2086

Man Group (RMF): Hedge Fund Ventures Hans Hurschler 12
London 41-55-417-7552

MD Sass-Macquarie Financial Strategies Steve Schenfeld 5
New York 212-843-8943

Protege Partners Jeffrey Tarrant 18
New York 212-784-6300

Weston Capital Management Chris Kelley 8
Westport, Conn. 203-227-5533

Have fun !! :p :cool: :p
 
Thanks ASusilovic for that list! That should be useful to many that come to ET.

nitro
Quote from ASusilovic:

Well, then nitro, here are some incubators :

Sponsor Contact Funds

Asset Alliance Bruce Lipnick 11
New York 212-207-4748

BRI Partners info@BriPartners.com 10
Chicago

Capital Z Management Elizabeth Danes 19
New York 212-965-2374

Decision Capital Management Paul DiFrancesco 6
La Jolla, Calif. 858-729-0222

Fairfield Greenwich Jennifer Keeney 17
New York 212-319-6060

Focus Investment Mazen Jabban 20+
New York 212-798-6177

Fortune Group Simon Hopkins 15
London 44-207-355-2000

FrontPoint Partners Gil Caffray 17
Greenwich, Conn. 203-622-5300

Harcourt Marcel Herbst 35
Zurich 41-13-651-0000

Hardt Group Jeff Landle 7
New York 212- 523-0207

Jefferies Group Tom Witz 7
New York 212-284-2300

J.P. Morgan Incubator Strategies Simon Lack 8
New York 212-899-2450

Larch Lane Advisors Todd Williams 14
Purchase, N.Y. 914-798-7600

Liberty Ermitage Jonathan Wauton 7
Isle of Jersey 44-153-461-5500

Man Group: Man Global Strategies Nick Cavalla 40
London 44-207-144-2086

Man Group (RMF): Hedge Fund Ventures Hans Hurschler 12
London 41-55-417-7552

MD Sass-Macquarie Financial Strategies Steve Schenfeld 5
New York 212-843-8943

Protege Partners Jeffrey Tarrant 18
New York 212-784-6300

Weston Capital Management Chris Kelley 8
Westport, Conn. 203-227-5533

Have fun !! :p :cool: :p
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