HUH's crash and burn trading thread

So we closed just above 1000 but more importantly the RUT golden crossed today. So now we have 2 of the 3 confirmations that this bear is done for this run. The S&P is on pace to give the final confirmation this friday or early next week and that should pretty much seal the deal for a new bull. I am watching the 565-570 closely as I think this is the next likely reversal point for a pullback to at least the 20 day ema. I am going to go ahead and start adding some RUT put spreads starting tomorrow.

Today I've added the following:
bot aug 520/530 RUT call @ cost of $887
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $214
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $205

I don't mind going heavy on the 57 iwm puts because the golden cross has occurred so the downside is pretty limited. If we do get a sell off then I can simply roll the 57's into sept since its likely that we will break 57 after a pullback.

I'm also looking to see if I can get some good pricing on some OTM RUT spreads as well. If I can get the pricing I want then I can go on the offensive but I'll have to wait and see as the market is sitting in a critical area.
 
Its been a hectic week in reality and I did find sometime to make a few more changes.

I closed bot aug 490/500 RUT call for a profit of $191 and I am going to add that $192 to the following short position:
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4701.44 so now I have:
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4701.44 + $192) = $4892.44

bot aug 490/500 RUT call for a profit of $72.24 and I am going to add that to the following short position:
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4766.99+ $72.24) = $4839.23

I've also added the following positions:
bot aug 520/530 RUT call @ cost of $897
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $166

I am waiting for the jobs report to see what kind of reaction we get. So far 570 has done a decent job of holding the market down, so lets see if it survives the jobs report.
 
I haven't done any changes so far as the markets just drifting higher. The bear market is over as all three indexes RUT, S&P, and Naz have all confirmed the golden crosses. This doesn't mean that we won't get pullbacks but its rare to see more than a 10% pullback during a bull run. Based on that, odds are very high that we will not see the 800s again on the S&P until the next bear market starts (which I don't think is going to happen this year). Maybe we get a double dip into another recession next year but right now I'm looking at a possible year end target of 1200 on the S&P. Right now we're just seeing the late monkeys...I mean mutual fund managers trying to keep up with the S&P since they've been asleep at the wheel since March as usual. Low volume + fund buying = Market up on good, bad, or okay news.

For this reason I did not go heavy into opening RUT put spreads as that would have really been a problem so even though I've had this rally shoved down my throat again, I don't believe the situation is out of hand yet so I'm just sitting tight for now......

On a side note, if RUT breaks 580 within the next week as it seems inevitable a lot of money is going to change hands as there is just eye popping open interest at the 580/590 spread.....I'm sure a lot of people are chanting "God please don't let the market go any higher and I swear I'll start going to church again!"
 
We finally got a pullback, however we cut right through the 20day support line so lets see if we get some buying to get back above that line tomorrow. If we can't recover it then the next likely stop is in the 530-535 range which is still a pretty significant drop. Reading the tea leaves and putting on my conspiracy hat I would imagine that this market needs to get a slight bounce up above into that 550-560 area and flatten out in that area through to friday. Thats why I went ahead and adjusted the following position:
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $396.75
I sold the 560/550 put spread for $598 which results in the following:
short aug 55 iwm put @ credit of $201.25
In case the tea leaves are lying to me and the RUT settles below 550 then I still have one 560/550/55 iwm position left.

short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4299.29
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4785.16
short 100 shares iwm @credit of $4318.88
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4797.63
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4892.44
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4839.23
bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $852
bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $892
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $428
bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $882
bot aug 510/520 RUT call @ cost of $897
bot aug 520/530 RUT call @ cost of $887
bot aug 520/530 RUT call @ cost of $897
short aug 55 iwm put @ credit of $201.25
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $349
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $334
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $280
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $214
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $205
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $166
 
Interesting....my thought was a bounce from monday and then a rather flat week so that we could get the pin at roughly 56 on iwm and 100 on spy, but instead we get a rally. I am really curious how the talking heads are going to explain the sudden .99 drop in spy tomorrow seeing as how there is no signficant news and they don't want to say its BS/manipulation. So I'll be waiting for Blowjob Pissonme to come up with a reason. Oh well as long as we don't get a massive rally to 58+ tomorrow I don't really care but must amuse myself somehow.

Today I closed the following positions:
short aug 55 iwm put @ credit of $201.25
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $349
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $334

I paid $5.75 to close these so we have the following closed positions for this month so far:

CLOSED POSITIONS
short aug 55 iwm put @ profit of $195.50
short 55 aug iwm put @ profit of $343.25
short 55 aug iwm put @ profit of $328.25
 
Quote from huh:

Interesting....my thought was a bounce from monday and then a rather flat week so that we could get the pin at roughly 56 on iwm and 100 on spy, but instead we get a rally. I am really curious how the talking heads are going to explain the sudden .99 drop in spy tomorrow seeing as how there is no signficant news
More...

Ouch talk about being punished for a bad call. Friday was just plain ugly, no way to sugar coat it. Anyway, I had a bunch of positions expire so here is a long update.

bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $852 expired fully ITM for a profit of $148, I am going to add this to
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4299.29 resulting in
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4299.29+148) =$4447.29

bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $892 expired fully ITM for a profit of $108, I am going to add this to
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4785.16 resulting in
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4785.16+108) = $4893.16

bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $882 expired fully ITM for a profit of $118, I am going to add this to
short 100 shares iwm @credit of $4318.88 resulting in
short 100 shares iwm @credit of ($4318.88+118) = $4436.88

bot aug 510/520 RUT call @ cost of $897 expired fully ITM for a profit of $103, I am going to add this to
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4797.63 resulting in
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4797.63+103) = $4900.63

bot aug 520/530 RUT call @ cost of $887 expired fully ITM for a profit of $113, I am going to add this to
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4892.44 resulting in
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4892.44 +113) = $5005.44

bot aug 520/530 RUT call @ cost of $897 expired fully ITM for a profit of $103, I am going to add this to
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4839.23 resulting in
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of ($4839.23+103) = $4942.23

The following positions expired worthless.
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $428
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $280
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $214
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $205
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $166

So I closed the following positions for August cycle:
short aug 55 iwm put @ profit of $195.50
short 55 aug iwm put @ profit of $343.25
short 55 aug iwm put @ profit of $328.25
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ loss of ($428)
sold 57 aug iwm put @ profit of $280
sold 57 aug iwm put @ profit of $214
sold 57 aug iwm put @ profit of $205
sold 57 aug iwm put @ profit of $166

Total profit Aug cycle = $1304
As for returns I have the following:
So far we have the following returns:
Jan cycle = $683.17
Feb cycle = $2051.06
Mar cycle = $796.14
Apr cycle = $389.58
May cycle = $681.73
June cycle = $1587.96
July cycle = $28.44
Aug cycle = $1304
Total gain = $7522.08
Percent return = 7522.08/30000 = 25.07%
Goal = 30-25.07= 4.93% until goal reached.

So as soon as I hit the 10K mark I will start taking the option cycle put profit and use it to offset losses I lock in on the call side. I'm still waiting patiently to make a significant offensive move but so far I haven't seen an opportunity I was comfortable with.
 
Here is a list of positions I am taking into the sept cycle:

short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4447.29
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4893.16
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4436.88
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4900.63
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $5005.44
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4942.23

I also added the following position on friday:
bot sept 570/580 call @ cost of $592
 
Way to go - your best case scenario is close somewhere around 600 or way down to 550. Too high is too bad....right at 570 is not so good either.
 
Quote from valpak:

Way to go - your best case scenario is close somewhere around 600 or way down to 550. Too high is too bad....right at 570 is not so good either.
More...

Yeah its been difficult keeping up with this bull stampede and am waiting for the bulls to get a bit tired but so far no dice.

I added the following today:
sold 60 sep iwm put @ credit of $247
 
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