HUH's crash and burn trading thread

I only closed a 100 shares of IWM in July for a puny profit:
short 100 shares iwm @ profit of $28.44

I have the following remaining postitions:
bot 3 july 480/470/460 butterflies/short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4163.65
bot july 480/490 call/short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $3785.16
bot 4 july 460/450/440 butterflies/short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4107.88
bot july 480/490 call/short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $3797.63
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4701.44
bot july 480/490 call/short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $3766.99

The butterfly positions all expired worthless and the remaining three 480/490 positions expired fully in the money. I also added a 560/550rut/55iwm put position and friday I added another put position at the 55 iwm level. I added the following:
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $428

So going into the august option cycle I am taking the following open positions:

OPEN POSITIONS
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4163.65
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4785.16
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4107.88
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4797.63
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4701.44
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4766.99
bot aug 480/490 RUT call @ cost of $752
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $396.75
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $428

As for returns I have the following:
So far we have the following returns:
Jan cycle = $683.17
Feb cycle = $2051.06
Mar cycle = $796.14
Apr cycle = $389.58
May cycle = $681.73
June cycle = $1587.96
July cycle = $28.44
Total gain = $6218.08
Percent return = 6218.08/30000 = 20.72%
Goal = 30-20.72= 9.28% until goal reached.

Looking at the market, it appears to be overbought on the short term so I'd like to see a pullback to relieve some of the overbought pressure. I am adding the 560/550 put spreads slowly waiting for the pullback. Once we do finally get the pullback I may close out the 560/550 put spreads and be left with just the 55 iwm depending on how drastic the pullback is. Like I mentioned in earlier posts, the market seems pretty bullish. Even with the recent 9% or so pullback the Naz never broke the golden cross, so if the bears can't break the Naz then there is no way they can break the S&P or RUT. Thats why I will most likely close out any 560/550 put spreads I have open when we do pullback in the next week or so. If the RUT manages to breakdown below the 50 day EMA again then obviously I'll re-evaluate, but until that happens I'm going to assume that pullbacks will be simply dip buying opportunities on our way to 535 and 550 on RUT.
 
We're approaching that 535 level on the RUT that I think is the first possible reversal point, although with how overbought we seem to be I am surprised we haven't pulled back already, but it is what it is.

I added the following today:
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $349
bot aug 490/500 call @ cost of $782

Before today I had one call spread open at 480/490 and wanted to add 5 additional call spreads. I wanted to wait until the pullback before opening these but the market is forcing my hand a little bit so I am going to go ahead and slowly add the positions. I don't want to get caught waiting for the pullback that never comes, or comes too little too late.....so I am going to start adding them slowly depending on what the market does.
 
I added another position today.

short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $334

Still waiting for signs of weakness as the market keeps pushing up. At this point I would like to go ahead and add the RUT put positions once we get up to test the 535 level and the short iwm 55 puts give me a little bit of protection against my short iwm stock. If we finally sell off then I need to add some RUT calls anyway. So just slowly moving in....
 
Added the following today:

bot aug 490/500 call @ cost of $807

I'm waiting to see what happens at RUT 535. If we test that level and sell off then I will start adding some more puts, if we close above that level then I'll go ahead and keep adding a few more calls. I think a pullback to the 510-515 area for a final test would be healthy before we continue the run up to 550 to shake out some profit takers but seems like people just aren't willing to sell yet.......

There really hasn't been a catalyst to sell at this point anyway as to nobody's surprise the earnings have generally "surprised" to the upside which has held the market afloat since there hasn't been any significant eco news. I would be surprised if we didn't go ahead and get a pullback to the 20 day EMA's by the end of trade friday. Thursday after hours basically is the last day when signficant companies report for the rest of earnings season so once those are out that would be a good reason to go ahead and start locking in profit. I'm not looking for a big nose dive as I don't think we will see 700's again on S&P this year.
 
I just added an additional call position today:

bot aug 490/500 call @ cost of $892

We've broken through 535 pretty easily, next target to watch is 550.
 
:eek: :eek: :eek:
Well there's my look of surprise as apparantly nobody is in the mood to sell even now. The bulls seem to be getting a little piggish here but it is what it is.

On Friday I added
bot aug 500/510 call @ cost of $852
 
It's getting complicated and interesting. You troubles are mounting up and very little room for adjustments. Deviation from your original startegy didn't turn out to be good idea.

To make money (or recover fast) you have to increase your Delta i.e. bet by buying some in the money or slightly out of the money puts but that leaves you more vulnerable to losses.
 
Quote from valpak:

It's getting complicated and interesting. You troubles are mounting up and very little room for adjustments. Deviation from your original startegy didn't turn out to be good idea.

To make money (or recover fast) you have to increase your Delta i.e. bet by buying some in the money or slightly out of the money puts but that leaves you more vulnerable to losses.
More...

Its been difficult to get a handle on the magnitude of the moves and having to be on the defensive during this massive bull run off the march lows. But I don't think its completely out of hand....yet! At the start of the cycle I was watching the 535, 550, and finally the 580 area. My expectation was that 550 would keep the market at bay and it would take something signficant such as an exceptional jobs report to take the market through 550 and into the 580 range. BUT as a precaution, rather than jumping in full force with iwm puts and ITM RUT puts, I threw out just a couple of iwm and ITM rut puts and also threw up some single ITM puts. So the caution was beneficial as now I am able to add additonal RUT puts at higher strikes. I'd be in a much bigger mess if I had opened all 6 560/550RUT/55 IWM put positions at the beginning of the cycle.

So at this point I'm having to step back and absorb some blows until we can find a resistance level that actually sticks. So far there isn't enough bearish pressure to go on the offensive with put spreads. Now that we've hit the 55 iwm level I will begin to add some 57 iwm puts as I don't believe the eventual pullback will be very significant.
 
I added the following two positions today:
bot aug 500/510 call @ cost of $892
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $280

Here is an updated list of what positions I have open currently:

short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4163.65
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4785.16
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4107.88
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4797.63
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4701.44
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4766.99
bot aug 480/490 RUT call @ cost of $752
bot aug 490/500 RUT call @ cost of $782
bot aug 490/500 RUT call @ cost of $807
bot aug 490/500 RUT call @ cost of $892
bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $852
bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $892
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $396.75
bot aug 560/550 put/short aug 55 iwm put @ cost of $428
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $349
short 55 aug iwm put @ credit of $334
sold 57 aug iwm put @ credit of $280
 
Watching eagerly like everyone else to see if we break 1000 on S&P like everyone else :)

Couple of changes from the last two days. (I didn't get time to do an update yesterday).

Today I did the following:
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4107.88
bot aug 480/490 RUT call @ cost of $752
I sold the 480/490 RUT call for $963 which results in a profit of $211. I'm going to just add that into the short 100 shares so I have the following:
short 100 shares iwm @credit of (4107.88+211) = 4318.88

short 100 shares iwm @ credit of $4163.65
bot aug 490/500 RUT call @ cost of $807
I sold the 490/500 RUT call for $942.64 which results in a profit of $135.64 so I have the following:
short 100 shares iwm @ credit of (4163.65+135.64) = $4299.29

Today I added:
bot aug 510/520 RUT call @ cost of $897

Yesterday I added:
bot aug 500/510 RUT call @ cost of $882
 
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