Well, made back what i lost friday + some in those short oil, gold and silver trades. Not the smartest trade, and non a great RR, but i'll take the result. Closed all except the short silver at this point.
HuggieBear's Official 2011 Thread of Market Domination
- Thread starter HuggieBear
- Start date
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing...
Performance for Week 15:
Weekly % Return = +1.0%
2011 P/L = +6.8%
Current DD = 0.0% !!
MDD = -12.05%
The intro quote is appropriate on so many levels. Indeed I am an idiot, and indeed this entire thread signifies very little. More acutely, this week was full of sound and fury, but without much dramatic change when the dust finally settled.
This was, on many levels, a very good week....and on some levels quite a bad week.
On the positive side, I made back every discretionary dollar i lost last week on short gold, oil & silver. I made it all back on Monday, and closed all positions (thank god). Furthermore, I went on to trade like a discretionary trading genius for the remainder of the week. I was probably close to 90% - 95% win rate in scalping CL for the week (usually for 20 - 50 ticks at a pop)....of course, i'm not supposed to be scalping CL, but thats another matter.
The most important point of this week is that I finally came out of a 3-month draw-down and my account is at all new highs. Pretty amazing as at one point in February i was down over 15% (intra-week), and was really worried. The dollar amounts I'm dealing with are not trivial, so 15% is a big deal (at least, to me).
Also on the positive side, I am now outpacing the S&P500, being up nearly 7% against a slightly less than 5% for the S&P. Its a good move in the right direction, but certainly not enough. I need to beat the S&P by about 50% ( in terms of return %) just to offset the tax implications from short term trading. But, nevertheless, I am moving in the right direction.
On the negative side, my system trades were abysmal this week. I probably lost 2%-3% on my long term trend following trades (which should give some indication of just how good my discretionary trading was to make up for those types of losses).
I am hoping for a strong global market performance on Monday. If we get that, I will apply some hedges and see where the next month takes us. I am still aiming for an annualized return of between 20% and 40%.
Good trading all...
HB
PS --- one more note
some time recently I went through all of my broker records for the last 8 years (since Jan 2004) and tracked every dollar i ever added (or removed, which was rare). I am, as of this weekend, still down 2.2% in my full lifetime of trading, although i am positive since about 2007. IN any case, I should soon reach "lifetime breakeven", which will be a nice thing. In the meantime, I believe my -2.2% is slightly better than the S&P over the same time...and i did that while getting an amazing trading education and paying my broker 100's of thousands of dollars.
If you could only imagine how i traded in the mid-2000s, it would shock you....buying as many GOOG & APPL options as i could possibly purchase and just riding the dragon...lol
Performance for Week 15:
Weekly % Return = +1.0%
2011 P/L = +6.8%
Current DD = 0.0% !!
MDD = -12.05%
The intro quote is appropriate on so many levels. Indeed I am an idiot, and indeed this entire thread signifies very little. More acutely, this week was full of sound and fury, but without much dramatic change when the dust finally settled.
This was, on many levels, a very good week....and on some levels quite a bad week.
On the positive side, I made back every discretionary dollar i lost last week on short gold, oil & silver. I made it all back on Monday, and closed all positions (thank god). Furthermore, I went on to trade like a discretionary trading genius for the remainder of the week. I was probably close to 90% - 95% win rate in scalping CL for the week (usually for 20 - 50 ticks at a pop)....of course, i'm not supposed to be scalping CL, but thats another matter.
The most important point of this week is that I finally came out of a 3-month draw-down and my account is at all new highs. Pretty amazing as at one point in February i was down over 15% (intra-week), and was really worried. The dollar amounts I'm dealing with are not trivial, so 15% is a big deal (at least, to me).
Also on the positive side, I am now outpacing the S&P500, being up nearly 7% against a slightly less than 5% for the S&P. Its a good move in the right direction, but certainly not enough. I need to beat the S&P by about 50% ( in terms of return %) just to offset the tax implications from short term trading. But, nevertheless, I am moving in the right direction.
On the negative side, my system trades were abysmal this week. I probably lost 2%-3% on my long term trend following trades (which should give some indication of just how good my discretionary trading was to make up for those types of losses).
I am hoping for a strong global market performance on Monday. If we get that, I will apply some hedges and see where the next month takes us. I am still aiming for an annualized return of between 20% and 40%.
Good trading all...
HB
PS --- one more note
some time recently I went through all of my broker records for the last 8 years (since Jan 2004) and tracked every dollar i ever added (or removed, which was rare). I am, as of this weekend, still down 2.2% in my full lifetime of trading, although i am positive since about 2007. IN any case, I should soon reach "lifetime breakeven", which will be a nice thing. In the meantime, I believe my -2.2% is slightly better than the S&P over the same time...and i did that while getting an amazing trading education and paying my broker 100's of thousands of dollars.
If you could only imagine how i traded in the mid-2000s, it would shock you....buying as many GOOG & APPL options as i could possibly purchase and just riding the dragon...lol
Sir, I fear for you. I believe you are in slow car crash, I just can not watch. Hope I am wrong.
BMW
BMW
What is your basis for such a statement?
Sure, it could be true...thats the damnedest thing about it -- you can never quite be sure that you aren't in a slow-speed car crash. Even if you've been successful in the past, one can never be sure that the tide hasn't turned and what previously worked fine is now slow-boiling you to death. By the time you figure it out conclusively, real damage has been done.
In any case, I think I am alright. If you look at my trading performance over the last 16 months, I have a pretty good profitability ratio and win rate. I have good confidence in the two systems I run (honestly, they aren't that complex), and they've both been back tested over many decades.
I have some discipline issues, but they are improving over time. I have moved from what I would consider blow-up type discipline problems to simply having profitability impacting discipline problems. Meaning, at worst, I believe my discipline issues will only shave a few percent off my returns. I am too careful about risk now to get severely burned.
In any case, the entire point of my approach is really all about figuring out if I am being slowly boiled alive. I have specifically reduced risk so that I could try and establish a long-term track record (and hence, better confidence level) without severe risk of blow up.
While I may be participating in a slow motion car crash, I think the more likely scenario at this point is that I'm just wasting my time. The time investment I've put into this is now measured into the 10's of thousands of hours. I would have made substantially more wealth spending that time working at McDonalds. Even now, I am barely outpacing the S&P 500. If I do not achieve substantial outperformance by year-end 2013 I will probably throw in the towel.
Last year my return was over 50%, but the volatility was enormous. This year I have substantially reduced volatility, but my returns are clearly suffering.
We shall see...in any case, I am curious as to the basis of your statement. Maybe you see something that i don't
Sure, it could be true...thats the damnedest thing about it -- you can never quite be sure that you aren't in a slow-speed car crash. Even if you've been successful in the past, one can never be sure that the tide hasn't turned and what previously worked fine is now slow-boiling you to death. By the time you figure it out conclusively, real damage has been done.
In any case, I think I am alright. If you look at my trading performance over the last 16 months, I have a pretty good profitability ratio and win rate. I have good confidence in the two systems I run (honestly, they aren't that complex), and they've both been back tested over many decades.
I have some discipline issues, but they are improving over time. I have moved from what I would consider blow-up type discipline problems to simply having profitability impacting discipline problems. Meaning, at worst, I believe my discipline issues will only shave a few percent off my returns. I am too careful about risk now to get severely burned.
In any case, the entire point of my approach is really all about figuring out if I am being slowly boiled alive. I have specifically reduced risk so that I could try and establish a long-term track record (and hence, better confidence level) without severe risk of blow up.
While I may be participating in a slow motion car crash, I think the more likely scenario at this point is that I'm just wasting my time. The time investment I've put into this is now measured into the 10's of thousands of hours. I would have made substantially more wealth spending that time working at McDonalds. Even now, I am barely outpacing the S&P 500. If I do not achieve substantial outperformance by year-end 2013 I will probably throw in the towel.
Last year my return was over 50%, but the volatility was enormous. This year I have substantially reduced volatility, but my returns are clearly suffering.
We shall see...in any case, I am curious as to the basis of your statement. Maybe you see something that i don't
I may have spoken a bit offhandedly, and I may have also been expressing some feelings I have had toward my own trading in the past. It is clear that you are on an upward path and comments from a piker like me I am sure will not deter you. I am totally supportive of your efforts and admire you for being so public about your failures and successes, most of us here have ego's that will not allow us to do that.
There are at least 2 things that do give me pause. Perhaps it is out of my ignorance or my own inability to program profitable systems. And I have been at this off and on for a couple of decades. I have adopted a very cautious view of any system that can be programmed, but your results are suggesting that I am in error there.
Two, the percentages that you are up on a monthly or weekly basis seem so small that those profitabilities can be totally destroyed on days where bad judgement, lack of discipline or market action throw a wrench into the works. Again, speaking from my own experience. However, you have discussed how you no longer trade as you did in earlier years are doing well in dealing with the discipline devil. I think this is a path we all travel. Most of us take so many side trips and dead end trips that we run out of gas (emotionally and financially) before we get over the top of the learning curve.
Again, FWIW, I am totally supportive and look forward to your progress.
Don
There are at least 2 things that do give me pause. Perhaps it is out of my ignorance or my own inability to program profitable systems. And I have been at this off and on for a couple of decades. I have adopted a very cautious view of any system that can be programmed, but your results are suggesting that I am in error there.
Two, the percentages that you are up on a monthly or weekly basis seem so small that those profitabilities can be totally destroyed on days where bad judgement, lack of discipline or market action throw a wrench into the works. Again, speaking from my own experience. However, you have discussed how you no longer trade as you did in earlier years are doing well in dealing with the discipline devil. I think this is a path we all travel. Most of us take so many side trips and dead end trips that we run out of gas (emotionally and financially) before we get over the top of the learning curve.
Again, FWIW, I am totally supportive and look forward to your progress.
Don
Thanks -- i appreciate the feedback and don't take it personally. I am publicly hard on myself because i have suffered a couple of catastrophes all of which occurred when I was at my most profitable and after a long string of success. Trying to constantly remind myself that, no matter what, i am always on the cusp of failure.
With regard to the systems I am running, I believe they could be automated but I am manually executing the trades as i get signals. However, it is fully mechanical. They are fairly long term in nature, with most positions lasting weeks to many months (up to year and a half). I think it is quite possible to program systems with these types of durations because you can take advantage of the natural upward drift of the market. My main equities system is based on the work of Mebane Faber (great site at http://www.mebanefaber.com/) and other similar theoretical foundations.
These are more like active investing approaches rather than swing trading or day trading -- it would be tough to generate a living from it unless you have a huge stake. I hope to achieve 20% - 30% per year long term.
I have spent a tremendous amount of time programming and running fully automated intra-day systems. I have had basically no success in this area. The markets change too damn quickly to get anything to work for more than a few months. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I have come up empty. I too am skeptical of any method for fully automating intraday trading.
I agree with your second point. Even if my systems do work, it will only take a few mistakes per year to negate my gains. I am already -5% on the year due to a really bad week trading crude in January. So instead of being up 12% right now, I'm only up 7% and barely outpacing the S&P.
I am improving in this area of discipline but still have a ways to go. Its definitely at the top of my "risks list."
Thanks again for the feedback....I am using the next two years as a test period. If i can't successfully execute this relatively low risk, slow, and methodical approach to trading successfully, i will hang it up for good. I am inclined to believe it will work out successfully, but I would not be shocked if it does not.
With regard to the systems I am running, I believe they could be automated but I am manually executing the trades as i get signals. However, it is fully mechanical. They are fairly long term in nature, with most positions lasting weeks to many months (up to year and a half). I think it is quite possible to program systems with these types of durations because you can take advantage of the natural upward drift of the market. My main equities system is based on the work of Mebane Faber (great site at http://www.mebanefaber.com/) and other similar theoretical foundations.
These are more like active investing approaches rather than swing trading or day trading -- it would be tough to generate a living from it unless you have a huge stake. I hope to achieve 20% - 30% per year long term.
I have spent a tremendous amount of time programming and running fully automated intra-day systems. I have had basically no success in this area. The markets change too damn quickly to get anything to work for more than a few months. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I have come up empty. I too am skeptical of any method for fully automating intraday trading.
I agree with your second point. Even if my systems do work, it will only take a few mistakes per year to negate my gains. I am already -5% on the year due to a really bad week trading crude in January. So instead of being up 12% right now, I'm only up 7% and barely outpacing the S&P.
I am improving in this area of discipline but still have a ways to go. Its definitely at the top of my "risks list."
Thanks again for the feedback....I am using the next two years as a test period. If i can't successfully execute this relatively low risk, slow, and methodical approach to trading successfully, i will hang it up for good. I am inclined to believe it will work out successfully, but I would not be shocked if it does not.
Have you considered posting charts of your trades? You may receive some helpful comments or provide an ahha moment for a less experienced trader.
Most of my trading is not "Chart based", and probably wouldn't be that interesting. But, i have thought about discussing new trades & triggers more clearly....kind of a struggle on the time-front though.
"Scared money never wins..."
Performance for Week 16:
Weekly % Return = +0.13%
2011 P/L = +7.0%
Current DD = 0.0%
MDD = -12.05%
My account once again reaches new heights this week, but just barely. Ended the week up by just a sliver, but had a very large drawdown during the week on the S&P debt warning. So i had about a 4% swing and ended up barely better than flat.
Truth be told that type of whipsaw action is bad for my system. The decline was just deep enough to trigger some of my stops and to trigger some new short entries, making getting back to even tough. Oh well, one of these days my stops will trigger and the market WILL actually keep going down.
The bigger problem I have going on is that I am just being way to conservative. I am not following my systems religiously and its seriously costing me. I am supposed to have positions in crude, gold, RBOB, euro, pound, and aussie, but i closed all of them prematurely (didn't let them run). Meanwhile, I have held a number of positions until they stopped out for losses.
My new goal for this week is to more religiously follow my signals AND to hold them until they play all the way out instead of taking profits too quickly. LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY.
New signals this week in platinum, S&P index futures, and Wheat. I shall buy them all and see what happens. I also opened a new position in the naz index futures on Friday.
UP 7% thus far year to date, i would say I am on track for a 20%+ year thus far. I'm sure there will be another drawdown somewhere along the way, however.
Performance for Week 16:
Weekly % Return = +0.13%
2011 P/L = +7.0%
Current DD = 0.0%
MDD = -12.05%
My account once again reaches new heights this week, but just barely. Ended the week up by just a sliver, but had a very large drawdown during the week on the S&P debt warning. So i had about a 4% swing and ended up barely better than flat.
Truth be told that type of whipsaw action is bad for my system. The decline was just deep enough to trigger some of my stops and to trigger some new short entries, making getting back to even tough. Oh well, one of these days my stops will trigger and the market WILL actually keep going down.
The bigger problem I have going on is that I am just being way to conservative. I am not following my systems religiously and its seriously costing me. I am supposed to have positions in crude, gold, RBOB, euro, pound, and aussie, but i closed all of them prematurely (didn't let them run). Meanwhile, I have held a number of positions until they stopped out for losses.
My new goal for this week is to more religiously follow my signals AND to hold them until they play all the way out instead of taking profits too quickly. LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY.
New signals this week in platinum, S&P index futures, and Wheat. I shall buy them all and see what happens. I also opened a new position in the naz index futures on Friday.
UP 7% thus far year to date, i would say I am on track for a 20%+ year thus far. I'm sure there will be another drawdown somewhere along the way, however.
I go into this weekend short 5 full contracts of GC, for absolutely no good reason. It is likely to end in disaster and calamity. Therefore, I shall not log my weekly update for this week, which would show me with a nicely profitable week.
BY COB Monday, maybe even sunday, all will be known and full results will be logged.
BY COB Monday, maybe even sunday, all will be known and full results will be logged.