huge stock market rally is over for now!

Is the huge rally over for now?

  • yes, rowshan is usually right

    Votes: 110 34.2%

  • No! more upside ahead

    Votes: 113 35.1%

  • I don't know/I don't care/stop with your polls

    Votes: 106 32.9%
  • Total voters
    322
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Just because you asked...

Quote from volente_00:

IS VOLENTE_00 EVER WRONG ?
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Yeah, last Thursday:

Quote from volente_00:

never underestimate the power of


DEMTDAYBOYZ and r10 at 896-898
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You guys better liquidate your shorts now and go long because temporarily, we'll see new highs. Then we'll go down. There' a bullish descending wedge forming.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

It says "I will never post my ideas here again".
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This means there will be no new threads started by me, no new polls, no new market top calls.

If baron allows me to self moderate my threads, though, I will start new threads with new ideas. Sorry for the confusion.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=168825

As I said yesterday, since the original resistance at S&P 928-930 now looks to be holding for a few months, I can sell S&P 950 and 1000 calls for July, August and Sept. This trade is a low risk, nice reward trade. And since I believe the odds are in my favor, I am comfortable with it.

Take it to the bank amigo$!
 
Quote from B. Rowshan:

This means there will be no new threads started by me, no new polls, no new market top calls. If baron allows me to self moderate my threads, though, I will start new threads with new ideas. Sorry for the confusion.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=168825

As I said yesterday, since the original resistnace at S&P 928-930 now looks to be holding for a few months, I can sell S&P 950 and 1000 calls for July, August and Sept. This trade is a low risk, nice reward trade. And since I believe the odds are in my favor, I am comfortable with it.

Take it to the bank amigo$!
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Gotcha. So you don't anticipate a break of 930 for a couple of months, then?
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

So you don't anticipate a break of 930 for a couple of months, then?
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Let me put it this way ivan. The August S&P 950 calls traded yesterday for $9. Obviously, the options are priced as if there's a strong chance of the S&P reaching 950. This is NOT a coin flip.

For me to say "a few months" is really going out on a limb. if you tell me you understand this part, I will continue with my rationale.
 
I follow you so far. I'm not going to pretend that I have the knowledge you have in the markets, so if you can "dumb down" the rationale in a way that is layman, I appreciate it.

I'm a forex guy, remember.

So I think I get what you're saying - because the calls are priced as if 950 is a probability, you're making a bold call.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

I follow you so far. I'm not going to pretend that I have the knowledge you have in the markets, so if you can "dumb down" the rationale in a way that is layman, I appreciate it.

I'm a forex guy, remember.

So I think I get what you're saying - because the calls are priced as if 950 is a probability, you're making a bold call.
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I'll try to come on at the end of the day and tell you the updated prices of the options I mention.

Off-hand I know if an option is trading @ $9, the traders are pricing in a high probability of it crossing that figure during the time period. Using the same rationale, if the option is priced @ $1, the traders are pricing in a much lower probability of the S&P crossing that figure during the time period. Options can get as low as $.05 when there is very little to no chance they will cross that figure.

As it gets closer to expiration, and the odds dramatically decrease that it will cross a strike price, you often see options trading for $.25 and less. When you sell 1 option @ $.25, you collect $25 minus commission.

Any "call" I make and have ever made on ET is NOT for the sake of me showing that I can make a bold call to people I don't know. Every time I have posted an "idea", I am actually trading off of that idea, and you can be sure a significant amount of $$ that I control is invested in that "call". For example, when i started this thread, I was heavily short S&P May 950 calls, and I hit a home run on that trade.

=============

Eric P has said it well, and is obviously coming from the same place I am:
Quote from EricP:

you had mentioned traders wanting to draw attention to themselves, or raising funds from potential clients. You are misreading my point, though. Myself, and the vast majority of the long-term members of this site that are experienced and successful traders have no interest in either... I also don't want to be a 'guru', sell anything to anyone, or have need of other attention that might come from an anonymous message board. Instead, the members that I am referring to might occasionally simply have an interest in 'giving back' to the trader community. I understand that this might be hard to understand, but when people have succeeded in a business, and are basically in semi-retirement, they don't need the approval of others to build their self esteem
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Rowshan,

I appreciate you taking the time to explain. I'm ALSO going to trade some off of your calls. Because, despite our previous sparring and silly behavior, I do think that you know what you're doing.

Good luck, I'll watch this space.
 
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