huge stock market rally is over for now!

Is the huge rally over for now?

  • yes, rowshan is usually right

    Votes: 110 34.2%

  • No! more upside ahead

    Votes: 113 35.1%

  • I don't know/I don't care/stop with your polls

    Votes: 106 32.9%
  • Total voters
    322
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Quote from S2007S:


see all you bulls back again here when the dow and s$p both decline as much as 10-15%. The s$P will be sitting below 800 again.....
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Believe me, if the S&P gets below 800 again, I will absolutely be bullish. My guess is if it gets that low again (which I don't think it will), the masses will likely turn bearish around that time, confirming the belief that most people exit at the exact wrong time. At this time I will put on a bunch of longs and watch them grow.

So while I don't think it will happen (S&P 800), I am certainly rooting for it!
 
Quote from sirgiyan:

I mean... ??? I'm not really sure how to react.
I knew that this forum is really suffering from OVERKINDNESS and OVERGENTLENESS (not to mention OVERCLEVERNESS)

I just made a brief statement of what I see here.
Anyway, I'm fine with my analysis. And I can tell you this bone thrown to bears is just a bone to trap them...
Just my striking opinion

OK here is your ANALYSIS

It took a run all the way up from 666 to penetrate 200 DMA. Do you really believe it will penetrate it back falling from just 50 points above? I don't.
The big volume was a clear indication of buying at this level today.

EURO/YEN didn't even come close to 200 DMA and just tested 50 DMA (Which is above 200 since June the 1st)

1, 3 and 6 month T-bills were going down since Tuesday and high grade corporate bonds were moving higher - saying that risk is lower.

VIX has bumped into resistance and besides VIX has a HUGE gap down there from monday morning (VIX hates gaps)

$SOX, $NDX has been already mentioned.

GOLD/SILVER ratio was declining today - saying there is reflation going on - good for equities

And above all. The main goal of market is to confuse as many people as possible. I see 2 possibilities for this to happen.
1) Go straight down to 850-870 without a single visible bounce. (I don't see it happening due to everything above PLUS put/call ratio suggests there are too many bears already)
2) Go up from here and penetrate the previous high
to screw up those who will short more at 925-935

I vote for option #2
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No need to answer to anybody on here my friend. Although I'm glad you took somewhat offense to it because it enticed you to post a full analysis. Good points, thanks for the insight.
 
Quote from Mvic:

$sox is suggesting further upside ahead, of course this is options exp week so everything is suspect. News was pretty terrible 1st half of week and market didn't manage much of a sell off despite plenty of help from the call writers.
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NOT TODAY, we have a strong dow however tech is lagging big time today, SMH still negative on the day.
 
Good points indeed.

Your "OVER" speech. Fail. No such thing as OVERKINDNESS in the english language nor the root word, kindness, exist in real life. Except in the arms of a high priced hooker.

"It took a run all the way up from 666 to penetrate 200 DMA. Do you really believe it will penetrate it back falling from just 50 points above?"

What is so special about moving average. The Dow was crossing over and under the 200d sma like a bee with a broken wing in the last recession/recovery. Also, DMA is displaced moving average if you mean day moving average then write it out or do what I did.

Regarding VIX, what resistance are you talking about. It looks to me that it broke a downtrend that started in mid march.

Don't have time to argue other points because I have to trade but looking forward for a nice debate.
 
Quote from S2007S:

NOT TODAY, we have a strong dow however tech is lagging big time today, SMH still negative on the day.
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Rail and fright is down too. Just like yesterday drugs/biotechs are sort of proping the market up.
 
Quote from mister_doodi:

Good points indeed.
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Good work doodi. I'm happy that you decided to contribute as opposed to whatever else you were previously doing on this thread.
 
800 next stop



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OK

Since we've started the discussion and I'm still advocating the bullish case - let us continue.

Bullish developments for today (yesterday actually)

High Yield Corporate bonds were up big time actually confirming that yesterday's volume was a buying as could be seen on the chart of ETF called HYG.
This means less risk to me

Financials were strong and now (late at night) futures of nasdaq also lead us higher.

$TRAN was strong today

VXZ - an ETF tracking mid-term VIX futures was OUTPERFORMING spot VIX saying that supply of underlying security (VIX) was bigger than demand.
So big fall in VIX today has good chances to continue in order to fill that gap I mentioned yesterday.

Bottom line:
If friday will be really bullish - we can have a big short squeeze in the making.

PS
Thank you for correcting my english.
 
Another busted call by Rowshan. Look how he tries to save his "ET cred" by trying to define the word "for now". Face it, he tried to predict the top and was wrong, dead wrong.
 
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