huge stock market rally is over for now!

Is the huge rally over for now?

  • yes, rowshan is usually right

    Votes: 110 34.2%

  • No! more upside ahead

    Votes: 113 35.1%

  • I don't know/I don't care/stop with your polls

    Votes: 106 32.9%
  • Total voters
    322
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Quote from B. Rowshan:

Including this thread, I am now 4 for 4 in threads started in 2009. I am including the thread "will the S&P hit 700 or 1000 first" in the 2009 batch and whomever doesn't agree it belongs, get over it.
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I stand corrected. I am 3 for 3 this year. I would be 4 for 4 if I started a new thread this week featuring my latest call. But I cannot count coulda's and woulda's.
 
Quote from B. Rowshan:

I stand corrected. I am 3 for 3 this year. I would be 4 for 4 if I started a new thread this week featuring my latest call. But I cannot count coulda's and woulda's.
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Last I checked the call in your first post of this thread is wrong as the spooz took out 940. We'll be over 1000 this fall.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

This thread is just like a car accident. You don't want to look but you can't turn away either.
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That's one of the funniest things i have read on ET in a long time. describes the situation exactly.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

Last I checked the call in your first post of this thread is wrong as the spooz took out 940. We'll be over 1000 this fall.
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If the market is climbing a wall of worry, Obama is presenting it with plenty to worry about.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

Last I checked the call in your first post of this thread is wrong as the spooz took out 940. We'll be over 1000 this fall.
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the market traded below for ~3 weeks. a good call considering this is the first such weakness since the rally started.
 
Quote from shortie:

the market traded below for ~3 weeks. a good call considering this is the first such weakness since the rally started.
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This isn't weakness: it's consolidation.
 
Quote from B. Rowshan:

S&P @ 928 3pm

Huge rally is over for now.
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Here is the dictionary meaning of the phrase "for now":

noun

the present time "that's all for now"

==========================

I started this thread on May 8th with the S&P @ 928. Over the course of the next few weeks, the S&P never went higher, and was about 50 points lower weeks later. Obviously, the rally was over "for now".

People are confusing the term "for now" with "forever". If I said "the rally is over forever", well that means the S&P will "never" go above 928. The odds of this happening are maybe 1 in 1000 or .1%. So for those of you rejoicing that the S&P finally managed to punch thru 928 a month later are rejoicing at an event with a probability of 99.9%. Keep rejoicing while I continue to laugh at you.

In poker, if I need an ace (and only an ace) on the river, I still have a 5% chance of winning.

When I said "the rally is over for now" the odds were maybe 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 against me. It's not easy to find the precise top to an upward thrusting market. But that's exactly what this thread did. When I started this thread on May 8th, it did mark the end of the rally "for the present time".

I'm sure there are a few people on this board who understand statistics and can corroborate what I am saying and the probable odds of these events I outlined.
I look forward to a dialogue with anyone who understands statistical analysis and wants to discuss probabilities with respect to events "for now" and "forever".

Class dismissed.
 
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