huge stock market rally is over for now!

[krazykarl]

Quote from krazykarl:

875-ish is the new floor. You're still punting.

^this is how you make a good call 24 hours before economic news. Yeah, the numbers were bad, yes we're green.

The OP is still punting.


IMP(rojection), 1050 by fall.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from Ivanovich:

But I can flip a coin and get 1 for 1.

There's a BIG mistake in your analysis. Don't compare what I do to flipping a coin. It shows your lack of understanding of statistics.

Quote from Ivanovich:

going for 2 for 2.

Guess what? I am 2 for 2 now. The huge stock market rally ended at 3pm on May 8th. Coincidently, that's the exact time I started this thread. That's the fact Jack. Please don't now say that my call here was a 50/50, like flipping a coin. Do you understand what the odds of me catching the exact moment and the exact S&P top to this rally were? It was a longshot to say the least.

Do you feel that you are encouraging quality posts and posters with your heavy handed tactics so visible here? I'll remain hopeful this post sunk in and you have no other commentary for it.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

There's a BIG mistake in your analysis. Don't compare what I do to flipping a coin. It shows your lack of understanding of statistics.

Guess what? I am 2 for 2 now. The huge stock market rally ended at 3pm on May 8th. Coincidently, that's the exact time I started this thread. That's the fact Jack.

Do you feel that you are encouraging quality posts and posters with your heavy handed tactics so visible here? I'll remain hopeful this post sunk in and you have no other commentary for it.

The coin flip was for illustration purposes only.

You are NOT 2 for 2 yet. This is what I mean by a convenient intepretation of your calls vs. what everyone else thinks. If the rally continues at this point and leapfrogs over the 930 area, then all you have correctly done is call a resistance area that everyone is aware of. Given the strength of the up move, a bounce off of the 930 area of this magnitude isn't all that shocking. Maybe I'm insane.

Now, if it doesn't breach that area and after some time this proves to be an intermediate top, then you're bang on and I will be the first to congratulate you.

Lastly, this discussion is contributing to the thread - the problem is that you only want posts that congratulate you and feed your ego. You're not willing to discuss disagreements in a non-combative way.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from Ivanovich:

You are NOT 2 for 2 yet. This is what I mean by a convenient intepretation of your calls vs. what everyone else thinks.

LOL! You're now talking for "everyone else" ?! I bet you there's alot of people who would disagree with you and say that this call was correct and "the huge stock market rally is over for now".

Quote from Ivanovich:

the problem is that you only want posts that congratulate you and feed your ego.

Funny, over 90% of the posts towards me are from parasites who slime me no matter what I say or do. Yet you think you know what "I want". LOL. Since trading is obviously not for you, maybe you should be a psychologist.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

LOL! You're now talking for "everyone else" ?! I bet you there's alot of people who would disagree with you and say that this call was correct and "the huge stock market rally is over for now".

I'm not the only one who thinks this way. Would you like me to post examples from other users?

Quote from B. Rowshan:


Funny, over 90% of the posts towards me are from parasites who slime me no matter what I do. Yet you think you know what "I want".

I wonder why that is? You're correct, I made the assumption you wanted to be regarded seriously. I never considered that you might not give a damn. Apologies for that.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from Ivanovich:

I'm not the only one who thinks this way. Would you like me to post examples from other users?

Sure, go ahead and post from credible members like stock trad3r and port1385 and the other parasites who follow me around. I challenge you to find someone of recognition that garners respect. Yes, ask anyone who is well respected here whether they believe the premise of this thread has been proven correct.

Quote from Ivanovich:

I made the assumption you wanted to be regarded seriously. I never considered that you might not give a damn.

I want to be taken seriously on ET? Does my behavior on here over the years really show this?

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

There's a BIG mistake in your analysis. Don't compare what I do to flipping a coin. It shows your lack of understanding of statistics.

Guess what? I am 2 for 2 now. The huge stock market rally ended at 3pm on May 8th. Coincidently, that's the exact time I started this thread. That's the fact Jack. Please don't now say that my call here was a 50/50, like flipping a coin. Do you understand what the odds of me catching the exact moment and the exact S&P top to this rally were? It was a longshot to say the least.

Do you feel that you are encouraging quality posts and posters with your heavy handed tactics so visible here? I'll remain hopeful this post sunk in and you have no other commentary for it.

B. Rowshan – I will speak up for you. Thank you for having the courage to post your predictions. Most of the rest of us who track the markets do not have the courage to unleash our prediction. I think you should be proud you stood up for what you believed in.

I also see Ivanovichs point. I didn’t see his post as heavy handed. When you posted your prediction I had it down as a coin flip. I saw the odds at 50/50 when I read your first post. My cycle indicators said it was at it’s peak on the daily chart. This agreed with your assessment. But, from experience I have seen markets go on and trend and extend the cycle. This bear rally had already done that before from March 17 to March 26.

I also don’t see Ivanovich as insane. He is right to let some of the newbie traders know that predicting market movements is very difficult or as many say next to impossible. Too many traders have bit the dust trying to state where markets are going. He may actually be trying to be kind to you. ET forums can be very nasty to traders who make one losing call. That has really puzzled me. This group should be the kings of handling losing situations.

So Sir please keep your courage up I look forward to reading your next prediction.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from Rabbitone:

When you posted your prediction I had it down as a coin flip. I saw the odds at 50/50 when I read your first post.

So Sir please keep your courage up I look forward to reading your next prediction.

Thank you for the post.

But I disagree on this point: After running up over +30% in 2 months and over 250+ S&P points, it was NOT a 50/50 propostion to call the exact end of this historic run to the minute and to the exact number on the S&P. The odds of someone being able to do this is at least 20 to 1 to maybe 50 to 1 or more. There were many times on the way up that someone could have called a top and been wrong. And to pinpoint the time to the exact moment and get it right is pretty unbelievable.

 

[Pascal]

We had the necessary relief in the past couple of days. It's anyone's guess at these levels. The key is if we see a run to new highs, you will know the right answer, especially if you're short.

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

Thank you for the post.

But I disagree on this point: After running up over +30% in 2 months and over 250+ S&P points, it was NOT a 50/50 propostion to call the exact end of this historic run to the minute and to the exact number on the S&P. The odds of someone being able to do this is at least 20 to 1 to maybe 50 to 1 or more. There were many times on the way up that someone could have called a top and been wrong. And to pinpoint the time to the exact moment and get it right is pretty unbelievable.

Ok. Your point is well taken. If your methods continue with this predictability and you post it. I will use it.