Huge Run Up

S

ShoeshineBoy

Crapola! I almost had a heart attach. I bought T 2 days ago at 14.19 and just looked at my IB screen when I got to work and it was at 16.23!! That's 14+% in 2 days.

I panicked. My system says to get out so I got out. But was that stupid? From what I've seen big runners usually keep running for a little more.

Should I have stayed in? I'm sure the answer is: it depends...
 
So you decide not to follow the system, and what happens? One of 2 things, mostly. The position rises even more, or it tanks. On this individual trade, you will either feel you left money on the table or got out just in time. Of course, no matter which one you experience, look at the stock's price tommorrow and you could feel like you made the wrong choice regardless. That's no way to spend your life.

On any individual trade, you can't really say "should I second guess my system?". The system is designed for probabilities over many trades, and on that basis, tells you when the chances are better if you exit.

Else, once you get a signal to exit, you may want to look at a lower time frame to find the best exit. So for example, if you trade on daily screens, step down to 60 minute bars and watch something like the Stochastic to see if its signalling for others to still enter or if its signalling to everyone to exit.
 
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