HSY

[oldnemesis]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hsy

After the fact trade (the safest kind)

with HSY at 99.89
Feb 90/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $70
Yield = 70/430 = 16.3% in 170 days or 35% annualized

unfortunately the speculative spike has disrupted any probability/expectation calculation... but I believe this spread is pretty safe.

Price...... Profit / Loss...... ROM %
65.00.......... (430.00)....... -86.00%
75.00.......... (430.00)....... -86.00%
85.00.......... (430.00)....... -86.00%
87.82.......... (147.50)....... -29.50%
89.30............... 0.00........... 0.00%
90.00............. 70.00.......... 16.30%
100.00........... 70.00.......... 16.30%
110.00........... 70.00.......... 16.30%
120.00........... 70.00.......... 16.30%

It might be more conservative to move the spread back to 85/80 which will yield about 8% annualized and if put you will have a good stock position to sell calls on.

If you want to do the 85/80 it probably would be best to wait a little and see if HSY price declines a little more so that you get a better yield out of the trade.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Should be a nice buy soon on fresh upside momentum with tight stop.

Not a confirmed buy just yet but should bounce back inside the lower Bollinger Band in the near term.

 

[oldnemesis]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hsy

After the fact trade (the safest kind)

with HSY at 99.89
Feb 90/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $70
Yield = 70/430 = 16.3% in 170 days or 35% annualized

unfortunately the speculative spike has disrupted any probability/expectation calculation... but I believe this spread is pretty safe.

Price...... Profit / Loss...... ROM %
65.00.......... (430.00)....... -86.00%
75.00.......... (430.00)....... -86.00%
85.00.......... (430.00)....... -86.00%
87.82.......... (147.50)....... -29.50%
89.30............... 0.00........... 0.00%
90.00............. 70.00.......... 16.30%
100.00........... 70.00.......... 16.30%
110.00........... 70.00.......... 16.30%
120.00........... 70.00.......... 16.30%

It might be more conservative to move the spread back to 85/80 which will yield about 8% annualized and if put you will have a good stock position to sell calls on.

If you want to do the 85/80 it probably would be best to wait a little and see if HSY price declines a little more so that you get a better yield out of the trade.