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HSI --- the perfect market
- Thread starter kiwi_trader
- Start date
Quote from kiwi_trader:
OK.
So, seemingly as a result of this the HSI has gone from perfect to perfect crap.
Spreads have gone from interesting to astronomical ( 15pt moves, 27pt slippage etc etc ). I doubt that the size of moves outweighs the risk associated with a disordered market.
So, I didn't trade today and am getting out my Nikkei strategy and having another look at SPI and STW. Just in case HSI doesn't come right in a few days.
So, can anyone say if its likely to go back to just wild as opposed to cyclonic. Def?? Anyone with some insight??
Totally agree. Starting last week, it basically became untradable.
I went back to DAX for now. The hours are horrible for me (wake up call at 2:30am), but I can trade.
When does the mainland contract open (I'd like them to fuck off soonest)?
Meantime I'm going to trade sgxnk and spi. Trading europe doesn't appeal.
Meantime I'm going to trade sgxnk and spi. Trading europe doesn't appeal.
This seems to be half of the answer:
August 13, 2007
MON
13
AUG
Stock index futures
By Michael Pettis
From today's South China Morning Post:
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is poised to allow trading in the mainland's first equity-based derivatives - likely to be stock index futures contracts based on the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index as early as next month. The move was expected after the investor watchdog issued licences this month to more than 40 brokerages to trade on the China Financial Futures Exchange, established in Shanghai in September last year.
Not a good idea, I think. The main problem with the Chinese capital markets is not that they lack hedging tools, sophisticated instruments, or even good financial data (which they do lack). It is that the investor base is completely unbalanced. There is no way for fundamental investors or arbitrageurs to act profitably, but on the other hand there is plenty of useful information for speculators (insider activity, government intervention, fraud, sudden regulatory changes, etc.).
As a result, this is a wholly speculative market and for all the talk it hasn't changed much in the six years I have been here. Giving a wholly speculative market derivative instruments that multiply leverage will only add unnecessary volatility to the market.
On the other hand, for those who are long B-shares (full disclosure: such as me), this is a great thing. B-shares are so cheap relative to their A-share equivalents (more than 30% discount) that it makes sense for foreign investors to buy B-shares and short the index. Of course there will be tons of tracking error, but with a 50% return to convergence, what's a little tracking error?
August 13, 2007
MON
13
AUG
Stock index futures
By Michael Pettis
From today's South China Morning Post:
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is poised to allow trading in the mainland's first equity-based derivatives - likely to be stock index futures contracts based on the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index as early as next month. The move was expected after the investor watchdog issued licences this month to more than 40 brokerages to trade on the China Financial Futures Exchange, established in Shanghai in September last year.
Not a good idea, I think. The main problem with the Chinese capital markets is not that they lack hedging tools, sophisticated instruments, or even good financial data (which they do lack). It is that the investor base is completely unbalanced. There is no way for fundamental investors or arbitrageurs to act profitably, but on the other hand there is plenty of useful information for speculators (insider activity, government intervention, fraud, sudden regulatory changes, etc.).
As a result, this is a wholly speculative market and for all the talk it hasn't changed much in the six years I have been here. Giving a wholly speculative market derivative instruments that multiply leverage will only add unnecessary volatility to the market.
On the other hand, for those who are long B-shares (full disclosure: such as me), this is a great thing. B-shares are so cheap relative to their A-share equivalents (more than 30% discount) that it makes sense for foreign investors to buy B-shares and short the index. Of course there will be tons of tracking error, but with a 50% return to convergence, what's a little tracking error?
Quote from kiwi_trader:
On the other hand, for those who are long B-shares (full disclosure: such as me), this is a great thing. B-shares are so cheap relative to their A-share equivalents (more than 30% discount) that it makes sense for foreign investors to buy B-shares and short the index. Of course there will be tons of tracking error, but with a 50% return to convergence, what's a little tracking error?[/i]
Good point.
but i guess the abnormal divergence still a greater than bearable risk for most individual traders to go into the trade which i suppose to be mid/long term nature. short term would be too volatile to do?
Quote from joesan:
Some Chinese traders started to trade HSI, using it as a practice for the incoming mainland Shanghai-Shenzhen 30 index futures contract. They are a gang of pure believers of capital power, win big or lose all, gambler's philosophy.
that's why i'm worrying that their participation will greatly change the market pattern or at least make it pattern-less for some time. bad for trading systems.
Ohohoh!! r THEY the casue of these days' astronomical volatility!??
Quote from kiwi_trader:
When does the mainland contract open (I'd like them to fuck off soonest)?
Meantime I'm going to trade sgxnk and spi. Trading europe doesn't appeal.
Kiwi,
I am not sure which time zone you are in. I am sure you have heard of DAX futures. It is a very good contract to trade. It is much thicker then HSI, and it is volatile, though not as much as HSI of course.
Regards,
redduke