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HPQ: Beats estimates, raises guidance and states "what recession?"
- Thread starter Port1385
- Start date
Haha states "what recession". Dont get too happy, HPQ will be feeling what dell is feeling soon, if you own HPQ, today is an early xmas gift to get the hell out of that stock, HPQ is headed for the low 20's. Tech is going to fall even further over the next 18-24 months, the news out of the chip industry is that they see a 2.2% drop off in global sales, this will hurt stocks like HPQ.
Citi Investment Research:
19 February 2009. 7 pages
Recommendation ¡X We reiterate a Buy rating on HPQ shares with a revised
target of $51. While we are cutting FY09 revenue by 13% to reflect a low
double digit yoy decline ex EDS & FX, we are only cutting non-GAAP EPS by
3% thanks to stellar expense mgmt, pricing discipline (including price
increases on ink/toner) and the defensive characteristics of the model (i.e., the
razor blade/razor nature of the inkjet biz and >50% recurring profit). In
addition, valuation seems washed out at just 8-9X revised F12 non-GAAP EPS.
2FQ09 EPS Guidance Conservative . EPS normally rise sequentially by $0.02-
0.05 during 2FQ, but mgmt is guiding EPS down $0.07-0.09 this year. Despite
the need to reduce ink/toner channel inventory by 1-1.5 weeks over the next 1-
2 quarters, our modeling suggests that mgmt¡¦s 2FQ guidance is conservative.
....
Valuation . We are reducing our target multiple from 13X to 12X to reflect the
lower EPS growth implicit in our revised estimates. Our revised P/E and
discounted cash flow valuation analyses still suggest a twelve-month target of $51,
50% upside from current levels. We therefore view near-term weakness as an attractive buying opportunity.
...
www.citigroupgeo.com
19 February 2009. 7 pages
Recommendation ¡X We reiterate a Buy rating on HPQ shares with a revised
target of $51. While we are cutting FY09 revenue by 13% to reflect a low
double digit yoy decline ex EDS & FX, we are only cutting non-GAAP EPS by
3% thanks to stellar expense mgmt, pricing discipline (including price
increases on ink/toner) and the defensive characteristics of the model (i.e., the
razor blade/razor nature of the inkjet biz and >50% recurring profit). In
addition, valuation seems washed out at just 8-9X revised F12 non-GAAP EPS.
2FQ09 EPS Guidance Conservative . EPS normally rise sequentially by $0.02-
0.05 during 2FQ, but mgmt is guiding EPS down $0.07-0.09 this year. Despite
the need to reduce ink/toner channel inventory by 1-1.5 weeks over the next 1-
2 quarters, our modeling suggests that mgmt¡¦s 2FQ guidance is conservative.
....
Valuation . We are reducing our target multiple from 13X to 12X to reflect the
lower EPS growth implicit in our revised estimates. Our revised P/E and
discounted cash flow valuation analyses still suggest a twelve-month target of $51,
50% upside from current levels. We therefore view near-term weakness as an attractive buying opportunity.
...
www.citigroupgeo.com
Quote from aresky:
Citi Investment Research:
19 February 2009. 7 pages
Recommendation ¡X We reiterate a Buy rating on HPQ shares with a revised
target of $51. While we are cutting FY09 revenue by 13% to reflect a low
double digit yoy decline ex EDS & FX, we are only cutting non-GAAP EPS by
3% thanks to stellar expense mgmt, pricing discipline (including price
increases on ink/toner) and the defensive characteristics of the model (i.e., the
razor blade/razor nature of the inkjet biz and >50% recurring profit). In
addition, valuation seems washed out at just 8-9X revised F12 non-GAAP EPS.
2FQ09 EPS Guidance Conservative . EPS normally rise sequentially by $0.02-
0.05 during 2FQ, but mgmt is guiding EPS down $0.07-0.09 this year. Despite
the need to reduce ink/toner channel inventory by 1-1.5 weeks over the next 1-
2 quarters, our modeling suggests that mgmt¡¦s 2FQ guidance is conservative.
....
Valuation . We are reducing our target multiple from 13X to 12X to reflect the
lower EPS growth implicit in our revised estimates. Our revised P/E and
discounted cash flow valuation analyses still suggest a twelve-month target of $51,
50% upside from current levels. We therefore view near-term weakness as an attractive buying opportunity.
...
www.citigroupgeo.com
What a bunch of fools, HPQ is NOT going to $51, as I said in November this stock is headed way down to the low 20's probably even upper teens, these analysts are clueless, this recession is so deep that no tech company can weather this storm. My 12 month target is $18-$22. See you there!!!
February 19, 2009
HPQ
09:26 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com:
Recommendations story about HPQ from AmTech
AmTech believes expectations have been reset with HPQ's guidance and they would use the corresponding weakness as a buying opportunity. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock. :theflyonthewall
08:37 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Hewlett-Packard-HPQ remains "must own" name in large cap tech, says Needham
Needham believes HPQ's Q1 results indicate the company is "not completely immune from the global demand contagion." But they continue to view HPQ as a "must own" in large cap tech and reiterates a Strong Buy rating on the stock. :theflyonthewall.com
07:52 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Recommendations story about HPQ from Kaufman
After Hewlett-Packard reported lower than expected revenue, Kaufman Bros. reduced their 2009 EPS estimate for the company to $3.80 from $3.95, but they continue to find the shares' risk/reward ratio favorable and maintain a Buy rating on the shares. :theflyonthewall.com
07:08 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Hewlett-Packard-HPQ upgraded on improved risk/reward at Thomas Weisel
As mentioned earlier, Thomas Weisel upgraded Hewlett-Packard to Overweight from Market Weight. The firm believes HPQ's risk/reward has improved given overdue reduced FY09 guidance and attractive valuation. :theflyonthewall.com
06:35 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Hewlett-Packard-HPQ upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel
:theflyonthewall.com
HPQ
09:26 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com:
Recommendations story about HPQ from AmTech
AmTech believes expectations have been reset with HPQ's guidance and they would use the corresponding weakness as a buying opportunity. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock. :theflyonthewall
08:37 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Hewlett-Packard-HPQ remains "must own" name in large cap tech, says Needham
Needham believes HPQ's Q1 results indicate the company is "not completely immune from the global demand contagion." But they continue to view HPQ as a "must own" in large cap tech and reiterates a Strong Buy rating on the stock. :theflyonthewall.com
07:52 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Recommendations story about HPQ from Kaufman
After Hewlett-Packard reported lower than expected revenue, Kaufman Bros. reduced their 2009 EPS estimate for the company to $3.80 from $3.95, but they continue to find the shares' risk/reward ratio favorable and maintain a Buy rating on the shares. :theflyonthewall.com
07:08 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Hewlett-Packard-HPQ upgraded on improved risk/reward at Thomas Weisel
As mentioned earlier, Thomas Weisel upgraded Hewlett-Packard to Overweight from Market Weight. The firm believes HPQ's risk/reward has improved given overdue reduced FY09 guidance and attractive valuation. :theflyonthewall.com
06:35 EDT HPQ theflyonthewall.com: Hewlett-Packard-HPQ upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel
:theflyonthewall.com