How's real estate market in your area?

[jficquette]

Quote from sunggong:

So many people here are very pessimistic about the real estate market.

I'm the guy that said 20% depreciation is probably the worst-cast scenario for my area.

The reason I'm not worried is because:

1) SF Bay Area has always had inflated housing prices, but people still live here because it's one of the best places in the whole country to live. Prices have never "tanked" in this area for single family homes even when the tech bust happened. (I don't know much about condo prices, but I do know that they are more volatile) Unlike SoCal, where LA area experienced some severe pullbacks in late 80s and early 90s, NorCal has not had severe pullback. We are talking 10-15% at most in the recent history going back about 50 years....

2) I have locked up my mortgage at 5.125% for 30-years. I lucked out when I bought the house as the rates were very low.

3) I don't plan on selling my house in the near future, so I can certainly deal with price fluctuations that will inevitably come in the near future.

What's the big deal? Unlike stocks, real estate never "tank" fast. It never has and most likely, it never will.

Comparing single family home real estate market to Enron/Worldcom is beyond idiotic. It's plain stupid.

People are making too big of a deal with this real estate stuff....

If Bay area is one of the best places to live now it was even better 10 years ago and houses were half the price.

Real Estate can't "tank" because of their illiquidty. They just get foreclosed on and the "sale" never hits the books until later and only after the bank haggles with buyers and only after they get sick of holding it.

Right now no one knows what the real market is because of the lask of buying interest. The statistics only reflect what has been closed on.

The real market price is probably 50% of what the houses in San Diego, Bay area went for in late 2004, early 2005.

John

 

[sunggong]

Quote from traderdragon:

The potential of a crash here could make Enron look like a joke.

I have read a lot of stupid shit on this board, but what's above there is probably the most idiotic statement ever.

Enron vaporized people's retirement plans and stock values to ZERO, but you're saying this "potential" crash can make "Enron look like a joke"?????

Speechless...

 

[jficquette]

Quote from a529612:

How do you check forclosures in your area to see who got the "margin call" in the neighborhood?

There are various services that give you that information. The ones I have come across charge for the information.

John

 

[sunggong]

Quote from jficquette:

Right now no one knows what the real market is because of the lask of buying interest. The statistics only reflect what has been closed on.

The real market price is probably 50% of what the houses in San Diego, Bay area went for in late 2004, early 2005.

John

I just love these posts. John, so you're saying on that first sentence nobody really knows what the real market is.

YET, you still make a point that the "real market price is probably 50% of what the houses in SD and BA went for in late 2004, early 2005."??????

I thought nobody knows???? You know????


Oh my goodness, how do you come up with these posts?

Do you even think when you post???

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from traderdragon:

Any real trader willing to pay this kind of premium in SoCal isnt much of a trader.

The potential of a crash here could make Enron look like a joke. Houses dont crash like stocks? No, they take longer, but look at japan, where some homes lost 80-90% of their value over 10 years.

Dont fool yourself. A 30%-40, maybe 50% (if there is a panic) dip here is very possible, and a perfect storm is brewing. Give it 2 years after most of the ARMs have reset and the interest only loans have converted. Double whamy.

Lets see how many of these couples, making a combined salary of 100K can make the $5500 a month mortgage payment, while paying for 2 kids and 2 cars.

At the same time that I laugh at the stupidity of some of this (Australia just raised rates another 1/4% to much wailing and gnashing of teeth despite rates being much lower than they were last time inflation was going well) I do feel sympathy for some of the people involved. Its going to be tough on the overextended single home owners who got sucked in by financial institutions and blood sucking real estate agents when they felt they had to buy now or could never get in.

A legal challenge to the lies those bastards told the working poor would be a joy to see.

 

[DannoXYZ]

Quote from a529612:
How do you check forclosures in your area to see who got the "margin call" in the neighborhood?

Depending upon the county and laws, this information has to be published. In my area, it's listed in the newspaper when foreclosures auctions are held. Typically Thursday mornings on the steps of the courthouse. The banks wants to get back the remainder of their loans, so bidding typically goes up to that amount for a 20-40% discount off retail. The numbers of foreclosures has increased by 2-3x this year compared to last year and rising...

more news...
NBC- San Diego Home Prices Drop
SignOnSanDiego-Housing hangover
SiliconInvestor-WAMU lays off 900 due to slowdown in mortgages (who's gonna be next in line to buy your properties?)
NY Sun - Condo Expectations May Be Rethought As Prices Plung
Beware a slowing housing market (Ameriquest lays off 3800 due to slow mortgage biz)
RMN - Record foreclosure pace

As for REAL NUMBERS on people losing money, you have to examine actual price a house was purchased for and what it eventually sold at: Forsakencraft - sales & loss listings

 

[jficquette]

Quote from sunggong:

I just love these posts. John, so you're saying on that first sentence nobody really knows what the real market is.

YET, you still make a point that the "real market price is probably 50% of what the houses in SD and BA went for in late 2004, early 2005."??????

I thought nobody knows???? You know????


Oh my goodness, how do you come up with these posts?

Do you even think when you post???

I wouldn't give more then 50% of what they cost in 2004. In order to sell tomorrow all inventory for sale now it would take a 50% in price. That is how stocks work. You just sell at market.

If anyone wants to compare housing to stocks then lets talk apples and apples.

John

 

[Guildenstern]

The thing is, very, very few people who bought into the latest real-estate hype were in the market back in the '80s

This 19 y.o. guy I used to work out with just spent $240k on a condo in Kent, WA (the Ingleside of Seattle). He's moving in with his girlfriend, but even if he wanted to rent it out he would be at least $600 cash flow negative/ month. His goal is to flip it and maybe buy a new BMW in a year. The Condo market went up 22% in July in King County, WA after going up about 50% last year, and all the major regional employers (MSFT, Boeing, etc.) are expanding labor force so this might be one of the last holdouts of the real estate parabola. Either that, or he is sucking wind for 12 years.

It will go up because it went up and then it will go down because it went down.

Interesting addendum: my mom's property in Virginia Beach, VA sold for $100/ at auction in 1984 and now it is at least $45k/ acre. That's appreciation! $800k McMansions in the Pungo/ Blackwater region are sprouting in converted farmland like weeds.

 

[sunggong]

Quote from jficquette:

I wouldn't give more then 50% of what they cost in 2004. In order to sell tomorrow all inventory for sale now it would take a 50% in price. That is how stocks work. You just sell at market.

If anyone wants to compare housing to stocks then lets talk apples and apples.

John

Think about what you're saying.

In the history of SF Bay Area real estate market, we NEVER saw 50% drop in single family home prices in 2 year period.

And why the hell are you comparing the stock market to the real estate market?

I pointed out how stupid it was when another poster was comparing the potential RE crash to Enron, saying that the RE crash will make Enron look like a joke.

You can't compare stocks to real estate.

Sigh....

 

[hardyards]

If you told a Japanese in 1985 "that land is going up because they aint making any more of it" he would have agreed and paid your price.

Tell him that story today and he will tell you that recent history says otherwise and that your price is beyond his comfort level.

In the long run you may well be correct,
and the next few years may be just a mere blip in the 100 year trend. But in the short run you need to live and enjoy life otherwise what is the point to living.

IMO, Joe 6 pack is going to be bleed dry in the next few years financially, emotionally
and in every which way. RE is only a part of this process, no matter how little the price of property erodes.

If the markets had been allowed to correct after the dotcom bust then things today may have been a little more realistic.
But no, some idiot felt compelled ( or was instructed) to interfere and now poor old Joe 6 is carrying one burden on top of another.

Class 101 ... never solve a problem with another problem = problems squared.