You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
How's real estate market in your area?
- Thread starter a529612
- Start date
Here is an interesting article from a professional pessimist or let's say contrarian:
http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/markets/realestate/10302860.html
I found this quote interesting:
I love the guy who earlier in this thread considered the a drop in value of 20% to be "the worst case" for his piece of property. That's what owners of Worldcom and Enron thought as well. How do you know how low it will go? It's a question of supply and demand. If everybody wants out (or has to go because the banks pull the trigger on them) then prices can go way south.
Nobody knows the extend of a worst case, the next 18-24 months will show, but this is just the beginning. Do not assume you're doomed, but equally: Do not assume you're safe.
http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/markets/realestate/10302860.html
I found this quote interesting:
As I mentioned previously, the statistical peak in housing (measured by new-home sales) was October 2005, only nine months ago (and with a unit drop in new-home sales since the peak of less than 20%). By contrast, the average postwar cyclical downturn for housing has been between 26 to 52 months, and in units, has averaged a 51% drop.
I love the guy who earlier in this thread considered the a drop in value of 20% to be "the worst case" for his piece of property. That's what owners of Worldcom and Enron thought as well. How do you know how low it will go? It's a question of supply and demand. If everybody wants out (or has to go because the banks pull the trigger on them) then prices can go way south.
Nobody knows the extend of a worst case, the next 18-24 months will show, but this is just the beginning. Do not assume you're doomed, but equally: Do not assume you're safe.
in 1988 fresh out of college, my parents sent me to a condo auction. i bought a $325,000 for $150,00. living there for 11 years, side by side everyday with those who paid over 300k was very interesting. i remember saying to myself....it was never worth that much, why did the people pay that?
shortly after selling in 1999 for 160k, they rocketed up to 300k. now, they are all sitting, just like 1988. exact same historical scenario. it is truly amazing how these things happen over and over and people think they are geniuses until they realize they were just pigs to the slaughter. oh, by the way... most of those people who paid in my time over 300k, sold for 150 to 170k. , very few stayed for the next upturn.
shortly after selling in 1999 for 160k, they rocketed up to 300k. now, they are all sitting, just like 1988. exact same historical scenario. it is truly amazing how these things happen over and over and people think they are geniuses until they realize they were just pigs to the slaughter. oh, by the way... most of those people who paid in my time over 300k, sold for 150 to 170k. , very few stayed for the next upturn.
Quote from Guildenstern:
Condo's went up 22% in July in King County (Seattle)! Single family house sales are still red hot. The avg house in Seattle was $470k last I checked and a condo is approaching $300k.
its slowed in the general Vacouver, WA area in southern WA. i still expect a push when Cailornians sellout and move en masse. its getting late on that prediction, so the move may be over?
Quote from crackedback:
I'd still rather pay 15% on a 200K home than 5% on a 400-500K overpriced pig. At worst I still only have a max of 200K in debt, instead of 400+.
How do you think a 20-40% correction would affect an owners feeling of "wealth" if they own the 400-500K pig?
I've been through three of these cycles and EVERYONE that says it will drop a max of 20% better go look at some old data. My home went from 125K to 220K to 140K to 475K in the span from 1986-2004. Home dropped 40% in the last cycle down. This run up has been even more extreme than prior periods. Food for thought .
Something I think will happen is rents will not rise in my area as more underwater owners place their units available for occupancy, hoping market value increases. My 2 cents
i agree & have been thinking almost the exact same thoughts. one addition - the "herd think" in Socal is that we may get a 10% pullback... i think this will make hopers hold longer and the "break" will be really bad, if it does happen.
Riskarb - my secy lives in solana beach. she had her place for sale last year & this year too. its del mar race season, so they are thinking of pulling their "ask" and wait until next spring. it is possible that they will track the market all the way down - what is really odd is they are moving outta state and will pay 40% of what the home sells for here for a comparable property.
Domestic,
Where was the condo located? I'm from So. California and know many of these "speculators". After the real estate market "peaked" they would fly to places like Washington, Texas etc and try to "flip" there. For some reason they thought it'd never end....
Reminds me of the book Fooled by Randomness. They were doing the right thing, at the right time and the right event happened. Instead of it being luck, they said it was because they were smarter then most. Now they continue to do the same thing, and it's the wrong place, wrong time and they are getting hurt bad. You should see the funny signs in San Diego of people trying to sell their homes...
Where was the condo located? I'm from So. California and know many of these "speculators". After the real estate market "peaked" they would fly to places like Washington, Texas etc and try to "flip" there. For some reason they thought it'd never end....
Reminds me of the book Fooled by Randomness. They were doing the right thing, at the right time and the right event happened. Instead of it being luck, they said it was because they were smarter then most. Now they continue to do the same thing, and it's the wrong place, wrong time and they are getting hurt bad. You should see the funny signs in San Diego of people trying to sell their homes...
haven't happen much in NYC. Real estate still way over price. Reduce in price? Hardly, but did see a bunch of for sales signs. At Bensonhurst, they are asking 650k for a 2 rooms, century old condo. I guess they are big and fully renovated. For the as-is, small 2 rooms (really a big one room divided into two) is asking for $250k, you will need to spend a funtune to get it fix. To top that off, there is no washer/dryer, no parking, and the maintaniance fee is $650/mo. The agent said it's a good price for a good location. I just have one question, WTF they think these garbages were? A newly built one probably cost less, and has all above.