How's real estate market in your area?
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Well, I live in Alberta, Canada, and things are pretty damn nutty up here right now. Last stat I saw was that housing prices were up approx 34% year over year in Edmonton, and roughly 50% year over year in Calgary.
I think that this little oilsands boom going on in Alberta will end badly. My thinking has been that either oil prices will drop a bit or labour and material prices will reach a point where new projects are not economically feasible. Total recently deferred their new oilsands project, so the latter may have already begun...
The major reason that our housing and rental markets have been so hot is our booming oil-related economy, which has attracted many to move from other parts of the country (particularly eastern Canada). It'll be interesting to see what happens to the housing market once the inflow of workers turns into an outflow...
I think that this little oilsands boom going on in Alberta will end badly. My thinking has been that either oil prices will drop a bit or labour and material prices will reach a point where new projects are not economically feasible. Total recently deferred their new oilsands project, so the latter may have already begun...
The major reason that our housing and rental markets have been so hot is our booming oil-related economy, which has attracted many to move from other parts of the country (particularly eastern Canada). It'll be interesting to see what happens to the housing market once the inflow of workers turns into an outflow...
Northern NJ still hovering around the hi`s............off a bit but not by much.........i`m in fort lee(george wash. bridge)............a house on my block that was offered at $679K went for 655K & needed work.....was surprised they got what they did.
i bought a condo at the jersey shore (point pleasant) in the spring of `05 for 400K & & actuallly had a guy offer me 450K, 7 months later.sensing the top was near,i persuaded him to cover my cap gains & closing costs,so i took the deal.......being that it was on the canal with very little turnover,the last unit sold was 2 years prior for 200K.....when the complex heard what i sold for,everyone flooded the offer market at once & were stuck.not only did i hit the top ,i exceeded the top on that trade.........i figured i could by one of them back in a few years when the foreclosures kick in.i never thought i`d pay that type of $ for 1900 sq ft of real eatate but turned out to be one of my better trades.i`m thinking 2 more years for some good opportunity to arrive.........& i`ll be looking to hit the bid again.
i bought a condo at the jersey shore (point pleasant) in the spring of `05 for 400K & & actuallly had a guy offer me 450K, 7 months later.sensing the top was near,i persuaded him to cover my cap gains & closing costs,so i took the deal.......being that it was on the canal with very little turnover,the last unit sold was 2 years prior for 200K.....when the complex heard what i sold for,everyone flooded the offer market at once & were stuck.not only did i hit the top ,i exceeded the top on that trade.........i figured i could by one of them back in a few years when the foreclosures kick in.i never thought i`d pay that type of $ for 1900 sq ft of real eatate but turned out to be one of my better trades.i`m thinking 2 more years for some good opportunity to arrive.........& i`ll be looking to hit the bid again.
Although overall, Cali is up an average of about 8%, slightly higher than historical average, in my area, median-prices are down -9% in the past couple months alone. About -12% in YTD I think. Perfectly normal correction as it had some of the highest run-ups in the state with +15% appreciation in some years.
I'm in nw NJ. There's a Toll brother's McMansion development nearby. In the past 2 months, they're still sellin' / breaking new ground. Amazin.
But local developers are definately dropping the offer side.
But local developers are definately dropping the offer side.
SF Bay Area. East Bay in particular, increased inventories. Builders have offered some significant discounts last Fall and Winter. This seemed to have stopped. However, they are certainly building less.
An exact same model as mine in my community sold recently for 850k (single family home by the way NOT condo). Last summer, the same exact model sold for 865k, so you can see that the price has flattened/gone down a little.
No worries here though....bought mine for $480k after all the upgrades and fees just 2.5 years ago. Even if it corrects 20%, which is probably the worst-case scenario, I'm still sitting pretty.
Nonetheless, it's shaky here. No doubt about it. Who knows what's going to happen, but at this point, don't care too much because I love the Bay Area and I want to continue to live here!
An exact same model as mine in my community sold recently for 850k (single family home by the way NOT condo). Last summer, the same exact model sold for 865k, so you can see that the price has flattened/gone down a little.
No worries here though....bought mine for $480k after all the upgrades and fees just 2.5 years ago. Even if it corrects 20%, which is probably the worst-case scenario, I'm still sitting pretty.
Nonetheless, it's shaky here. No doubt about it. Who knows what's going to happen, but at this point, don't care too much because I love the Bay Area and I want to continue to live here!
http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/statistics.htm
In the early 90s Toronto property sellers were locating to Victoria, West Coast buying 'cheap' homes with sale proceeds, see Toronto and Victoria for reversal of prices.
By 2025 Alberta (oil) will have a labour shortage of 300,000, see lower dot for Calgary prices.
http://www.watsonwyatt.com/europe/pubs/longtermstats/render2.asp?ID=14473
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/#statistics
UK House Prices, Consumption and GDP in a Global Context
http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/andrew.farlow/Farlow House Prices and Consumption.ppt
In the early 90s Toronto property sellers were locating to Victoria, West Coast buying 'cheap' homes with sale proceeds, see Toronto and Victoria for reversal of prices.
By 2025 Alberta (oil) will have a labour shortage of 300,000, see lower dot for Calgary prices.
http://www.watsonwyatt.com/europe/pubs/longtermstats/render2.asp?ID=14473
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/#statistics
UK House Prices, Consumption and GDP in a Global Context
http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/andrew.farlow/Farlow House Prices and Consumption.ppt
Central FL - Winter Park
2br 1ba 1200sf fixer upper
OFFERED $35K BELOW APPRAISAL!
Notable in that here in central florida, the house 'appraises' basically at what the transaction price is (minus a little bit maybe). Essentially advertising to the world that you bought too high and now need to get out - and are willing to take a loss to do so.
Inventory is massive in my area. Prices however, remain bid, just no buyers - the usual disconnect in this situation.
Look out below...
2br 1ba 1200sf fixer upper
OFFERED $35K BELOW APPRAISAL!
Notable in that here in central florida, the house 'appraises' basically at what the transaction price is (minus a little bit maybe). Essentially advertising to the world that you bought too high and now need to get out - and are willing to take a loss to do so.
Inventory is massive in my area. Prices however, remain bid, just no buyers - the usual disconnect in this situation.
Look out below...
most people mortgage vs. cash.. therefore.....
tho home prices may fall, rates are set to continue to rise on what could very well be a new inflationary cycle. if this is the case, unless you buy that same beach home in cash, u may end up paying the same or higher mortgage payments and end up paying more in the long run for purchase of same home that supposedly dropped in value.
u may bet on a collapse.. but home prices don't collapse like stocks, because people cannot sell en masse for sake of having to live somewhere and also, home prices are hedged to rent price. as demand to buy decreases, rental prices increase. eventually, buying a home becomes a lucrative income scenario to rent out. therefore housing cannot crash unless the nation's economy crumbled to dust.
tho home prices may fall, rates are set to continue to rise on what could very well be a new inflationary cycle. if this is the case, unless you buy that same beach home in cash, u may end up paying the same or higher mortgage payments and end up paying more in the long run for purchase of same home that supposedly dropped in value.
u may bet on a collapse.. but home prices don't collapse like stocks, because people cannot sell en masse for sake of having to live somewhere and also, home prices are hedged to rent price. as demand to buy decreases, rental prices increase. eventually, buying a home becomes a lucrative income scenario to rent out. therefore housing cannot crash unless the nation's economy crumbled to dust.