<i>"Intra-day players (AKA day-traders, but that's become a dirty word) were a tiny percentage of overall volume then, and now they've become the majority (if I'm not mistaken). Too many dollars, machines & minds are now chasing after decreasingly predictable intra-day moves."</i>
For sure. The guys who are succeeding now would have absolutely killed it x10 using same tactics from 1999 - 2002
Stocks like RIMM now back in 00 - 02 (PDLI, anyone?) used to make $10 ~ $25 intraday ranges, day after day. Lots of individual stocks popped $20 ~ $50 overnight or even intraday on earnings (... and they beat the street by 2 cents... cnbc crowd goes wild) all the time.
Slightly OTM options on stocks commonly went +300% intraday and +1,000% to +2,000% in a couple of days if held. We used to view option plays that went +100% overnight as not worthy of trailing stops to entry/par on.
As for emini futures, the ES commonly made +10pt ~ +20pt directional moves, straight-line with little flags at every pause. Now they still move that same distance overall, with 37 zig-zags in between. A lift of +3pts ES will retrace -3.75pts and then shoot right up +6pts from there. Far different behavior than up +3pts ES, flag inside .75pts, up +6pts, flag inside of 1.5pts and up another +6pts from there.
Completely different world now. Volatility has morphed into sideways violence for indexes. There is no way to describe the difference unless someone worked thru both periods equally. Markets are moving now, but the beat of computer drums is a much different rhythm to follow.
For sure. The guys who are succeeding now would have absolutely killed it x10 using same tactics from 1999 - 2002
Stocks like RIMM now back in 00 - 02 (PDLI, anyone?) used to make $10 ~ $25 intraday ranges, day after day. Lots of individual stocks popped $20 ~ $50 overnight or even intraday on earnings (... and they beat the street by 2 cents... cnbc crowd goes wild) all the time.
Slightly OTM options on stocks commonly went +300% intraday and +1,000% to +2,000% in a couple of days if held. We used to view option plays that went +100% overnight as not worthy of trailing stops to entry/par on.
As for emini futures, the ES commonly made +10pt ~ +20pt directional moves, straight-line with little flags at every pause. Now they still move that same distance overall, with 37 zig-zags in between. A lift of +3pts ES will retrace -3.75pts and then shoot right up +6pts from there. Far different behavior than up +3pts ES, flag inside .75pts, up +6pts, flag inside of 1.5pts and up another +6pts from there.
Completely different world now. Volatility has morphed into sideways violence for indexes. There is no way to describe the difference unless someone worked thru both periods equally. Markets are moving now, but the beat of computer drums is a much different rhythm to follow.
