How's everyone doing in 2008 so far?
- Thread starter IzzyfoShizzy
- Start date
Nobody's bashing anyone. i just stated a fact that 2002 was one of the most volatile if not the most volatile time in stock market history. I know many on here were either young traders are just starting in 2000-2002 so thats were the misunderstanding is in comparing 2000-2002 to now . The vix was in the 30-45 area a multiple of 6 over this period. As far as 98-2000 period which was also a great trading market but that was a much more of a straight up market with fewer pullbacks which benefited buy and holders
Yes, for me anyway. No comparison.
The volatility was great in those days, but many disadvantages were also built into the system for traders. Commission rates were much higher (I was paying $21 per ticket, plus up to 1.5 cps in ECN fees).
In addition, transparency and 'fairness' was much less in the market. The specialists ruled the roost in the NYSE, controlling when and/or if you would be able to get a fill or cancel, introducing much more delays (i.e. risk) into your trading. On the Naz, the market makers had a 15 second fill or move window, where they could post a 100 share big or offer, allow it to fill, and yet wait up to 15 seconds before refreshing or moving their quote, clogging up the marketplace and slowing down trading. Note that the market makers could hold all of the incoming orders that were sent to match their now 'stale' quote, and if the stock price reversed direction during those 15 seconds, they would be able to fill those orders (after sitting on them for a while to decide), but if the stock price kept moving higher, then they could refresh their quote at a new level and reject any other executions beyond the first 100 shares.
Finally, most successful traders I know have larger accounts now versus in 1999 or 2000, so they are able to take larger positions and make more profits on the increased size. While the profit margin per trade may be lower now than then, the overall profits can be many multiples higher on the larger trading size.
Now, we have the most transparent and 'fair' market that has existed since I've been daytrading (started in 1998). When you see a bid or offer, you have every fair opportunity to get there first and get filled against that quote. First come, first served. And, of course, the commission changes have made a huge difference in the viability of trading now versus then. Currently, I average well over 8k tickets per day, and can't even imagine having to pay a daily commission bill of $170,000 per day, which would be the price for those trades back in 1999 or 2000.
It's a different game these days, and one that I like much better, especially with the added volatility.
I Think what erics saying is basically what i said. Many of the traders were just starting out in 98-2002 and had little money are less skill.So what many people have done is increased there size 5-10 times to make up for less volatility. In 1999 we had some guys in my office rake in 20 mil in stocks like qcom and brcm
Do you think that the hedge funds have huge advantages over the independent trader? Maybe in some respects. But, overall, having assets under management of <$10M is a huge advantage over them.
In many/most cases, the size of the hedge funds is their downfall. If they see a bad trade, do you think they can just 'get out' and be done with it? They wish they could, but when you're holding $3B worth of CDO's and the market liquidity is such that your sale would depress prices by 5% on your selling alone, you are forced to hold onto the crap instead of eating the additional $150M loss that would come from selling that size in the market. Like being a whale eaten by pirantas. No fun.
Don't worship the hedge funds. Instead, feel sorry for them, and take advantage of the strengths you have a relative 'small' trader.
And, by the way, to answer your question: Yes, I'm doing better than most hedge funds.
Been hammered the last few days. Although the day is not over, by just looking at my account as of this writing im only up about 4.5% for the year now. Every trade this month has went against me. EVERY single trade! Earnings report for one of my stocks today will either get me back, or put me in the red. Wheres that rate cut when you need it?
Last year was my best since 2000, and this year is my worst since 2001- I've already given back half of what I made in '07.
I'm not looking for advice or sympathy... just keepin' it real.
Some thoughts: What was so awesome about the Golden Age (1998-2000) besides the incredible volatility and massive inflows of dumb money into the market, was that the vast majority of shares traded were those of long-term investors. Intra-day players (AKA day-traders, but that's become a dirty word) were then a tiny percentage of overall volume, and now they've become the majority (if I'm not mistaken). Too many dollars, machines & minds are now chasing after decreasingly predictable intra-day moves.
Regarding 2002: That year didn't even <i>start</i> until July!
'02 had two great trading months (July & Oct, I think), and ten very shitty ones. <b>2000</b> is the year to look back on with an uncontrollable grin & boner... at least as far as I'm concerned.
I'm not looking for advice or sympathy... just keepin' it real.
Some thoughts: What was so awesome about the Golden Age (1998-2000) besides the incredible volatility and massive inflows of dumb money into the market, was that the vast majority of shares traded were those of long-term investors. Intra-day players (AKA day-traders, but that's become a dirty word) were then a tiny percentage of overall volume, and now they've become the majority (if I'm not mistaken). Too many dollars, machines & minds are now chasing after decreasingly predictable intra-day moves.
Regarding 2002: That year didn't even <i>start</i> until July!
'02 had two great trading months (July & Oct, I think), and ten very shitty ones. <b>2000</b> is the year to look back on with an uncontrollable grin & boner... at least as far as I'm concerned.