HowardCohodas Index Options Credit Spread Trading Journal

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Quote from HowardCohodas:I've not yet had a 16% month...
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I was having a GREAT January, not 16% but well over 10, then those darn Egyptians started squabbling and I "got my hat handed to me", to use an old saying. Wiped out all of January's profits and a little of December.

What ticks me off the most is that it was from a position I put on only the day before. If I'd only left well enough alone, but no, greed set in. It was an S&P500 1280/1270 vertical bull put. The S&P blasted right through 1280, and I didn't react fast enough, thinking "20 points in one day over this? Nah...it'll come back". How effen stupid...I covered at a ridiculous price.

I need to remember this lesson. I'm embarrassed to admit it's not the first time I've made this mistake. It's what made me quit a few years ago, but that was much worse. I don't know, I enjoy it, but I have SO much more to learn, so much more...
 
Quote from HowardCohodas:

I put on an NDX PUT spread this morning. Stop loss was hit. Added new PUT spread that met my criteria.

I've not yet had a 16% month. I may trade naked, but I never do naked trades. :eek:
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Would you kindly post your "portfolio strategy window" as per the close of thursday, then the same as per the close of friday, and discuss your entered and closed transactions during friday, including relative size (because there were plenty of "funds released from quarantine" last week?).

Also what was the net account value fluctuation these last couple of days?.

This will clarify many, many questions that aren't clear to me and others, and also put us all in the same page for analyzing/trading this method this coming week which is likely to be of increasing volatility.:confused:

TIA.
 
Quote from eudaemon:

Would you kindly post your "portfolio strategy window" as per the close of thursday, then the same as per the close of friday, and discuss your entered and closed transactions during friday, including relative size (because there were plenty of "funds released from quarantine" last week?).

Also what was the net account value fluctuation these last couple of days?.

This will clarify many, many questions that aren't clear to me and others, and also put us all in the same page for analyzing/trading this method this coming week which is likely to be of increasing volatility.:confused:

TIA.
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Did not have Thu, so above is Wed and Fri.

I track cash in my account on a daily basis, but not account liquidated value. My primary focus is managing each spread as a separate entity.

Friday I opened spreads 91 and 92. Spread 91, the PUT spread, hit its loss limit and was closed. Spread 93 was opened to replace 91.

I take relatively few contracts in weekly spreads because there is little time to react. Friday's cash balance was about 1% lower than Thursday's.

31 JAN 2010 Trading Plan

Opportunity - Takeoffs are optional
Column: IC - Opportunity to form an Iron Condor
Spread #61 and 89 are unpaired.

Column: Spread P/L - Opportunity to roll
Spreads #63, #65, and #80 at more than 80% of capped profit.

Jeopardy - Landings are mandatory
Column: Probability of Touching
PUT spreads 79, 90, 88 & 89 exceed 40% PoT. The overnight futures indicate a modest increase at opening, therefore each of the PUT spreads above should improve relative to PoT. The spreads will be reviewed at market opening and periodically during the day.

Column: Days Until Expiration
Two spreads are 3 days from expiration.

Column: At Risk P/L
PUT spreads 79, 90, 88, 89 & 83 are loss positions. Same procedures as outlined above for PoT

New Opportunity
None
 
Arnie Guitar

I´m looking for a bounce. Assuming the January rush is nearing over, the 1,2,3 formation for a down move is technically probable. So while I also have a Bull Put Spread still safely out there another 4% for a market drop, I am considering closing the spread on the bounce. The reason being the trend change is not confirmed yet.
However, the VIX is showing 20 and option coach uses VIX 20 to drop Iron Condors I believe he said.

One thing with Howard´s system so far as we study it. It is showing the conclusion that for every closing trade of a spread at a 20% of margin loss, you forfeit the profits of 4 winning trades. This leads me to conclude that you need as many smaller trades staggered up and down the column of market movement as possible. The more wins, then you can absorb the sacrifice losses. The EDGE as some call it, would be to cut Bear Put Spreads in the Iron Condors today, as the VIX has touched 20. Stick to overhead Bear Call Credit Spreads. Again though we need confirmation, which probably will occur this week. However more smaller trades should build up the numbers of profitable trades.

I´m going to look at POT and weeklies this week. You get anywhere from 1 to 4 trades a week. For a month that comes to 4 trades up to, from 4 to 16 trades a month. If you have to make over 4 winning trades to one losing trade you close early, just to break even, then it only makes sense to cut your losses down to the smallest amount using smaller trades and add the EDGE of the VIX 20 rule to cut out Bull Put spreads and Iron Condors. At least that is the way my thinking is going.

I´m not at all understanding Howard´s earnings on a monthly basis? Using a 4 profits cancelled, to 1 lose closing, he is not showing the ratio in account balance size, win or loss. We have no idea of his running account balance.
 
falconview

Yes it takes 3 to 4 winners to make up for a loser.

But wait! We have 93.5% winners.

Money management is outside the scope of this thread. However, I do report month on month returns to account for commissions and cash balances. After 6 months my average month on month p/l is 10.5% increase. (7.4%, 7.7%, 11.3%, 11.2%, 15.1%, 10.6%)
 
Howard

Well you seem to be doing something right according to your returns? Mind you for six months, this doesn´t reflect the early in 2010 big market swings. However, assuming you were able to close spreads at your 20% of loss it does seem to be a winning system on an annual basis.

For a money management basis, while you won´t say, I am assuming small trades of a consistant size? That seems to be the way to go from what I´m seeing here. Though what is small as a trade would more reflect the account size availability. Percentage wise the size wouldn´t make any difference.

Thanks for the six monthly reports of adjusted balance after commissions and losses. That sheds light a lot.
 
Well I did try to apply your POT to the weeklies in the OEX. There was no premium out the money that far, where you got the POT readings. So scratch weeklies for your methodology.
Two months does give you time to take market swings.

I just hit on the third time of looking, and now testing around, a newer method I think might work on constant trading, just buying and selling. I´m rather excited about it. We shall see how it works during this week. It assumes some small losses occasionally.

Keep up the good work Howard. You may be breaking new ground. Particularly with credit spread losses as a planned system.
 
Quote from falconview:

Well I did try to apply your POT to the weeklies in the OEX. There was no premium out the money that far, where you got the POT readings. So scratch weeklies for your methodology.
Two months does give you time to take market swings.

I just hit on the third time of looking, and now testing around, a newer method I think might work on constant trading, just buying and selling. I´m rather excited about it. We shall see how it works during this week. It assumes some small losses occasionally.

Keep up the good work Howard. You may be breaking new ground. Particularly with credit spread losses as a planned system.
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Hmmm. I just checked. You can open a PUT 555/550 spread with a PoT on the short strike of 14% for a 3% return in 3 days. And there is good volume today. What more do you want?

P.S. Are you using the Fixed volatility per expiration date volatility strategy?
 
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