HowardCohodas Index Options Credit Spread Trading Journal

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from HowardCohodas:

My portfolio is hugely Theta positive. Why does this not contribute to positive expectancy?

Because it's vega positive, and if the underlying goes too far up or down gamma starts eating your lunch. There's no reason to believe that the market is biased to favor sellers.
 
Quote from falconview:

Martinghoul

Well I´m familiar with legging into a credit spread, or one side of an IC before you complete it. In that case, I have through habit got into the position of waiting for the index to move toward my target spread area, to take advantage of the premium ballooning, or volatility as you will when entering. However, if one is to take it at face value, that an IC is put on in one stroke, then probably one side would enjoy volatility and the opposing side would be deflating in premium. Therefore there would be no gain? May be I´m reaching here? ( grin )
FV, all you have to do is look at the payoff diagram for an iron condor and ask yourself what determines the size of the area where the payout is positive.
 
2011-01-12_p_journal.png


12 JAN 2011 Trading Summary

A roll was executed within Iron Condor (#15) by closing a PUT spread (#70) and opening another PUT spread (#78) closer to the NDX price.
 
Journal entry under Trials and Tribulations

THIS ACCOUNT HAS NO AVAILABLE BUYING POWER

This status came about because one of the spreads I opened yesterday had a leg adjacent to another spread in the same series. Their quarantined funds calculator thinks I was trying to form a butterfly rather than completing an Iron Condor. Software bug!

I was trying to complete my roll so I called the trading desk and they executed it for me, including several tries at limit orders until a fill was obtained.
 
2011-01-13_a_Journal.png


13 JAN 2010 Trading Plan

The Dashboard above informs me as follows:
Opportunity - Takeoffs are optional
Spread #61 is unpaired. Opportunity to form an Iron Condor.

Spread #75 is at 100% of it's capped profit but has only 0 days left until expiration. No opportunity to roll.

Spread #69, #58, and #61 at more than 80% of capped profit. This is indicated by the cell in the Spread P/L column highlighted in yellow. Opportunity to roll.

Jeopardy - Landings are mandatory
Spread #76 is likely to be closed rather than left to expire. If I am unable to monitor this throughout the day, I would place an order to close this spread with a market order now, and let it execute when the market opens.

If I am able to be available at market open I would watch a bit before trying to execute the close. The overnight futures show only small changes in the indexes are expected at open. When I was ready to close, I would try some limit orders to get the best price.

If I am able to be available throughout the trading day and the short never gets ITM, then I will close the trade near the close of trading.


Spread #75 is likely to expire as it currently shows 0% probability of touching.

Other than spread #76, three spreads show slightly negative return with 35 days until expiration. No action required.

New Opportunity
New weeklies are available today. However no trades will be entered until quarantined funds are released for series where today is the last day of trading. Patience will be rewarded.
 
Howard

You are certainly having a lot of fun. I confess to not understanding what you are doing. The concept is intriguing though.
You certainly seem to have it mathematically figured out. Doing weeklies for eight months, I more just concentrated on putting on spreads so I did not get hit. Working on deviation more than anything. With VIX as a guide. I can see the monthlies would be a whole lot more complicated in a two month IC, and including rollovers as part of the way you operate.

Somebody mentioned the graph for IC trades. Pray tell where do you get a freebie online option calculator to do that?
 
You don't need no stinkin' calculator... You just need Google. Here's what it looks like (lifted from some options site or another):
iron-condor.gif


However, that said, I think it's great to write smth like this in Excel and make it work exactly the way you want.
 
Just let the guy post. He may have something interesting to say. Just beware that permanently taking 40% risk, will eventually result in a 40%+ hit. To risk 40% requires a huge edge, which I do not yet see.:confused:

To risk 40% requires a lot of cohodas.:D
 
iron_condor_graph.png

Quote from falconview:

Somebody mentioned the graph for IC trades. Pray tell where do you get a freebie online option calculator to do that?
This is a graph of the Iron Condor in my Dashboard expiring tomorrow (trading ends today). It is from the ThinkOrSwim desktop platform. I opened an account with them that remained unfunded for five months while I paper traded.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top