Howard Marks: anatomy of a rally

[dealmaker]

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-anatomy-of-a-rally.pdf

 

[Clubber Lang]

Good read, however Absolutely nothing that everyone doesn’t already know and factored in.

People need to stop trying to make sense of it and just look at a chart of the Fed balance sheet overlaid with the S&P.

All will be clear

 

[Covertibility]

He sold the bottom and missed everything.

 

[Nobert]

He sold the bottom and missed everything.

Probably about time, that i stoped listening to him.
One should be able, at the very least, very least, to make 20% since march lows.
(for their size and approach, 5% would have been reasonable)

Good guy tho, but eventually, speaking in riddles, brings no more value.
Man should be like :
,,You had to buy into 2016 res and hedge, that's it, the end of memo'' (laughs)

 

[ironchef]

At the bottom, FB was at $140, PE 20, ABBV was at $65 PE of 11, dividend yield of 7.5%, BA at $90 and BRK was trading below book value.... yet few bought?

Buffett, he was supposed to buy BRK when it was < 1.1-1.2 of book?

 

[ironchef]

I think here is a better article and more solid analysis by Liz Ann Sonders, the Chief Investment Officer of Schwab:

https://www.schwab.com/resource-cen...ct-dots-main-street-vs-wall-street?cmp=em-QYB

 

[Clubber Lang]

At the bottom, FB was at $140, PE 20, ABBV was at $65 PE of 11, dividend yield of 7.5%, BA at $90 and BRK was trading below book value.... yet few bought?

The problem was that “the bottom” lasted about 5 minutes then we were up 10% on S&P the next day and never looked back

 

[ironchef]

The problem was that “the bottom” lasted about 5 minutes then we were up 10% on S&P the next day and never looked back

True, difficult to catch the bottom but what about somewhere near the bottom on the way up?

 

[Clubber Lang]

True, difficult to catch the bottom but what about somewhere near the bottom on the way up?

For individual investors yes, but how much could a large fund or Buffet buy even if they started buying hand over fist on March 23rd?
At best a few % of a mid to large company before they were driving it up on themselves??

 

[comagnum]

The market plunge was a liquidity problem.

Liquidity began trending down late Feb, the market nosed dived from this point. At the bottom the ES book depth was only 1% of its long term avg.

The rally high was on June 8th, the day after liquidity nose dived & so did the market. It has rebounded slightly since but still way down.

https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/cme-liquidity-tool.html#cmeLiquidityContainer