Howard Lederer: On Poker and Trading

[Murray Ruggiero]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

That guy blew out his trading account in 2 days during the summer of 2008, leaving his prop firm with a 7 figure account deficit, so I'm not sure he is the best person to ask as to what makes a good trader.

The main problem is that poker - especially no limit, where the big money is - rewards aggression whereas the market rewards it for a while then punishes it. Poker doesn't have any black swans or even grey swans, whereas in the markets you can never really be sure you hold the nuts. You need to be inherently more conservative as a trader than as a poker player.

It depends if we are talking about cash game poker or tournaments. Tournaments are a game of controling risk not to get crippled, sometime you fold hands with postive EV because of the point your at in the tournament. Cash game you want to just make as much of positive EV as you can since you can just rebuy.

 

[Scataphagos]

In my younger days, I played poker an average of 2 or 3 nights a week... for about 10 years.

As the bluff is such a big part of poker, and as there is no genuine bluffing in the market... I see very little correlation between poker and trading.

If you want to make analogy between trading and a gambling game, I'd say counting cards in black jack is closest.

 

[Cdntrader]

Quote from Scataphagos:

In my younger days, I played poker an average of 2 or 3 nights a week... for about 10 years.

As the bluff is such a big part of poker, and as there is no genuine bluffing in the market... I see very little correlation between poker and trading.

If you want to make analogy between trading and a gambling game, I'd say counting cards in black jack is closest.

No correlation?? the psychological challenges are identical imo.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from Cdntrader:

No correlation?? the psychological challenges are identical imo.

Sorry, don't see it.

 

[nickdes]

You really think, that the markets do not bluff?????? LOL

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from nickdes:

You really think, that the markets do not bluff?????? LOL

You talking about a fake order on the DOM? To suck some scalper into a 2-tick play? That's not comparable at all to the bluff in poker.

I've done more than most at both. Seems the correlation is quite thin, if any exists at all. Winning at poker, especially no-limit or table-stakes, has a high component of luck. In trading, the need for luck can be virtually negated by behavior.

 

[nickdes]

Quote from Scataphagos:

You talking about a fake order on the DOM? To suck some scalper into a 2-tick play? That's not comparable at all to the bluff in poker.

I've done more than most at both. Seems the correlation is quite thin, if any exists at all. Winning at poker, especially no-limit or table-stakes, has a high component of luck. In trading, the need for luck can be virtually negated by behavior.

Well, you go ahead a keep on thinking what you want! : ) Bluffs happen far bigger than what "you" think!!!!!!

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from nickdes:

Well, you go ahead a keep on thinking what you want! : ) Bluffs happen far bigger than what "you" think!!!!!!

Please explain one to me... one of consequence and comparable to bluffing a competitor off of a winning hand so that you win the pot. Please, just one.

 

[fhl]

Quote from Scataphagos:

Please explain one to me... one of consequence and comparable to bluffing a competitor off of a winning hand so that you win the pot. Please, just one.

Stops are run all the time. .

Running the market past key levels. (which seeks to take out those who don't use hard stops)

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from fhl:

Stops are run all the time. .

Running the market past key levels. (which seeks to take out those who don't use hard stops)

Not the equivalent of a "bluff win" in poker.