Howard Davidowitz: "The Worst Is Yet to Come"......and its so true!!!!

Quote from Mike Morrison:

As someone old enough to remember the 70s and early 80s I find these end of the world threads quite amussing though I can understand why it must all seem so scary to everyone born after maybe 1970.

While I don't believe we're going back to 2005 anytime soon life will go on. I remember back in the S&L days some very smart people who were convinced "it" was over. Sure seemed that way at the time.

And even in the depression most people did okay. In fact some parts of the country did quite well and felt very little if any impact.

Keep things is perspective. Yeah, things may be tough for a long time but tough is a relative thing. I bet things will still be better than the 70s for most people. Most people will have jobs and homes and plenty of food. They'll take vacations, buy cars and enjoy life. Many will even start businesses and get rich. Some will undoubtably fail and others will blame their failure on the economy. I won't be one of those thats for sure:)

And it's also helpful to keep in mind that predicting years out into the future, good or bad, is a fools game. Mental masturbration at it's finest. Nothing wrong with thinking about it, just don't get married to an idea about what the world will be like in 10 years thats all.
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You bring up a great point. During this tough economic time (and every tough economic time before this), there are always people out there who think the sky is falling. The economy always rebounds eventually. I know some will say "but this time is different" but I disagree. The world has had many "but this time is different" moments and always pulls through.
 
Quote from Stefo:

you people

you commoners

you useless eaters

you just don't get it

Everything is going according to plan :cool:
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Not really. It is going to get much worse.

You dont' really think the banks and brokers have totally fessed up, do you?

And how long can we take 650,000 job losses at a pop, pull in pension benefits, restrict lump sum payouts, fold up funds, before the people take to the streets? I now people reading this have had people bring them letters from pensions, telling the recepient they are underfunded, or that the new retirement age is 62 instead of 55, or something like that.

It doesn't always "work out". Just ask the dinosaurs.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

You bring up a great point. During this tough economic time (and every tough economic time before this), there are always people out there who think the sky is falling. The economy always rebounds eventually. I know some will say "but this time is different" but I disagree. The world has had many "but this time is different" moments and always pulls through.
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Ummmmm.....actually take a took at Germany 1919-1945. Things were looking up in '34, he, he, he.
 
Mike Morrison brings up a legitimate and interesting context that I, for one, can appreciate.

However, like ft said, how much worse will things get? Time will tell.

Consider also the effects if you or a family member, or even a friend or co-worker gets slammed and goes belly up, losing everything during the storm.

The closer the storm hits home, the worse people are going to feel, and the more they're likely to stop spending.

Right now, the ratio of 'who do you know?' is running pretty high, is it not? I mean, all of know people who've gotten slammed?

Part of the darkness descending is not knowing what lay ahead, and how much worse things will get. That's the part that keeps even those with good jobs, savings and who are in a position to spend reluctant to spend. They're preparing for worse times because they don't know what happens next.

When money stops circulating throughout the economy, a vicious cycle has begun. It feeds all the 'worse expectations' I mentioned above.

It begins to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
Davidowitz is spot on. He's right about every single point except for the length of the stagnation. I think it'll be less than 10 years-- four to seven, I estimate. Otherwise he pegged absolutely everything. Plenty of bear bounces like this past one, but no real engine for a new bull or sustained macro-growth. Stupid Libs will get the 'Change' they voted for.

We're truly living in "interesting times."

+1 to Stefo. Also great points about things not always working out and an economic self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
Quote from weld1:

DEFLATION IS THE BIG CONCERN...NO WAY TO FIGHT IT...
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Yeah, starting to see that. Did not believe it but looks like we are in times that will be remembered in history - and not for good.

Not enough vcitims of current crisis yet, this cant be over, gods always ask for sacrifices and get them... Like first leg down in stocks started slowly, possibhly beeing artificially supported, or/and people just didnt want to believe fairytale could possibly be over...

I dont do stock selling because of risk reward issues but will play long side in even shorter timeframes :mad:
 
WELD1


DEFLATION IS THE BIG CONCERN...NO WAY TO FIGHT IT.

...........................................................

Once upon a time there was a great big economy....that had $70 Trillion marked regarding the sum of all prices....

Then along came some very smart bankers who basically lost the equivalent of most all the deposits in the banks....thus $30 Trillion was eliminated from the $70 Trillion....

Is it not clear that 40/70's is DEFLATIONARY....?


Howard nails it.....

And any attempt by the FED has started out at far less than $30 Trillion....even on a levered basis back through the banks that lost the first load....

Which are still at a 25 to 1 levered mark....(more big losses to come)....
perhaps resulting in 35/70's....?

Thus the big D.....

And prices on all goods and services have not yet marked to market....in that the markets are still hoping for 70/70's prices....

This hope is like ------ ing in the ocean and expecting the tide to rise....
 
Quote from Landis82:

What does the ECONOMY have to do with the latest 35% rally in the stock market?

How come you still are so absolutely clueless at how the stock market often times has nothing to do with the current economic environment.

You obviously have no idea what you are doing . . . IN fact, I highly doubt that you even TRADE.

Better yet, why is it that you STILL HAVE NOT posted a simple "screen-shot" of your short positions on the market?

Is it because you don't have any???
Is it because you are a typical ET paper-trader?

I think the answer is pretty clear:

YOU ARE A KID PLAYING ON THE INTERNET.

Period.
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FOR the 82nd time, I DO NOT TRADE FOR A LIVING.....


Again, you can thank the fed for pumping trillions of dollars into the system for this latest bear market rally and also remember if weren't for that the markets would probably be 50% lower and unemployment would easily be in the double digits from where they are right now. But who cares when the government is printing trillions of dollar to prop up a broken economy and system.
 
:p
your goverment had sold the right to print money in 1913...
Fed is the only one having the right to pront money (in what way ever)
so you guys in USA will have to pay back all those dollars to the private bank FED...


hahahahahaha
 
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