How would you play todays events tomorrow morning?

please study history, and look at past declines. Use probability in your favor. Could it turn tommorrow, sure.. but usually it continues like this for 2 days bare minimum. The third day a up move is attempted, but its soon sold off, the week after a upmove gains traction. Then people get on board, then it declines to the previous weeks lows, then it consolidates and moves up again.

and before we know it we are at march fomc meeting. The market is forcing the fed to cut rates. So bonds will rally. And the stock momo down will continue a meaningful turn wont happen till a few days before FOMC. The volatility waves will be larger then usual, so even if your correct on your decisions a bad entry can lead to your stop loss being hit.

so study history and work from there.
 
Gonna play it the same as every other day. :)
Heads=long tails=short


coin%20flip.jpg
 
to be honest the initial trade doesnt matter, the direction doesnt matter its how you deal with every trade from the information you gather from the initial trade and each successive trade leads to the home run.

a bad trade is just as important as winning trade. It has informational value.
 
Quote from Anunakki:

In my experience ma and pa investors will not dump on a one day drop..even one this big. They look at long term. Ive talked to some today and they said it was a buying opportunity!

I would agree that futures in the morining and not trading the first 30 min are the way to go.

I also agree that end of the day will see red.

Im playing RIMM, AVY, MCD, CMI
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do you mind if i ask what yo see in these ones??? they seemed to follow the decline all day, rimm came up early on my scan but i looked at it and it followed the sandpee to a tee

i agree though when it comes to ma and pa no one knows what those fools will do but their could be alot of people who watch CNBC tonight and panic
:p :p :p :p
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

to be honest the initial trade doesnt matter, the direction doesnt matter its how you deal with every trade from the information you gather from the initial trade and each successive trade leads to the home run.

a bad trade is just as important as winning trade. It has informational value.
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couldnt agree more spectre, i lost 1500 today on 6k shares on a thick stock, thing was there wasnt a bid to be found anywhere that should have been my first hint not to catch the falling knife but i am a glutton for punishment:D


i thought 1430 would hold
 
Quote from romanvm:

any thoughts are welcome...
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Usually after big range days the market will meander back and forth and go now where. Selling hourly highs, buying hourly lows tend to work.

Check the adv dec line. It stays between 40-60 up volume the market will go now where.

John
 
Quote from dwl603:

do you mind if i ask what yo see in these ones??? they seemed to follow the decline all day, rimm came up early on my scan but i looked at it and it followed the sandpee to a tee

i agree though when it comes to ma and pa no one knows what those fools will do but their could be alot of people who watch CNBC tonight and panic
:p :p :p :p
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- Those are stocks I trade a lot and I know them pretty well.

- They are also hitting major support and I expect a decent bounce

- they tend to make pretty obvious reversals and when they do they move a lot. So its pretty easy to catch say, RIMM or CMI for multiple points.

AVY is extremely weak and Im definately shorting it as it rallies back to resistance.

The only thing that will throw me is if we open and go straight down with no real opportunity to get in.

But I think more than likely ( here I am playing Nostrodamus ) we will have a 15 or 20 minute decline to wsh away all the people dumping after work and then I see a rally into lunch. Coourse I think after lunch its gonna get ugly.

Disclaimer: Just giving what my gut and head tell me.. if you're smart you wont listen to a word I say :)
 
Quote from Anunakki:

In my experience ma and pa investors will not dump on a one day drop..even one this big. They look at long term. Ive talked to some today and they said it was a buying opportunity!

Im playing RIMM, AVY, MCD, CMI
More...

I think that's what they said back in 2000...
 
Quote from Corelio:

I think that's what they said back in 2000...
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i think the differenceback then is ma and pa had invested in bucketloads of small cap dot coms trading at insane valuations with little to back them up.

Whats going on now is not anywhere near as volatile. Stocks are overvalued but nowhere near to the extremes of that era.

Just my $.02
 
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