how would you play this? breakout / pullback / other?

Oh....picked up some calls on that into the close--the Sept $37s (0.46)...was playing this on its last test of this level...some early call buying here suggesting it may go higher (and especially if it gets some market tail winds)
Why not buy the underlying? or sell puts for the same strike to cheapen your cost?
 
Why not buy the underlying? or sell puts for the same strike to cheapen your cost?
Well, I was tripping over my fingers trying to get that entered quickly enough to review and fire it off....for one thing, so another leg was out of the question based on time. But more to the point, I don't want the downside exposure to it, and by rolling and building-in I can control a much higher delta without increasing my initial risk.
 
Well, I was tripping over my fingers trying to get that entered quickly enough to review and fire it off....for one thing, so another leg was out of the question based on time. But more to the point, I don't want the downside exposure to it, and by rolling and building-in I can control a much higher delta without increasing my initial risk.
thanks for the answer. may it blast upwards!
 
Awesome answer. educate me! where would you have bought it? i admit i WAS tempted to get it when it bounced of the triangle trend line, but hesitated. was that your chosen point of entry?


yes clearly a bullish triangle buy on first or second rsi retracement or %r in your case you would have been dollars ahead of the game. do what is unconformable to make money get positive slippage.

have a backup plan to sell reverse and or stop out if you can only go long. but for sake's don't be turtle soup.
 
View attachment 189836
I'm shopping for opinions / insights.
I do not intend to trade it with real $$$, so feel free to be objective, no repercussions will ensue.
given the triangle above, should it break to the upside, what the best risk/reward move?
Don't think it a long play at all? i wanna hear!
lemme have it all.
Appreciate all and any input.

The large final bar suggests a price decay is most likely, so wait until price begins to fall and then short. All that crap other than the chart is distracting.
 
View attachment 189836
I'm shopping for opinions / insights.
I do not intend to trade it with real $$$, so feel free to be objective, no repercussions will ensue.
given the triangle above, should it break to the upside, what the best risk/reward move?
Don't think it a long play at all? i wanna hear!
lemme have it all.
Appreciate all and any input.

I see a very seldom H&S pattern going with the trend, should have bought it today on yesterdays breakout of the high, would have given a small risk below recent lows. At worst, be at a breakeven stop after today's close.
 
how would you play this? Run away !

reason # 1.
Time to enter was around early 2017.
Now it is time to take some profit, not add on position.
Don't just purely look at price action and chart pattern.
Look at bigger picture.
Market is very unforgiving to those to enter far too late.
Those who entered in early 2017 might be laughing at those
who missed the earlier boat.

reason # 2.
look at how jerky and spiky the chart is.
it will continue to be jerky and spiky.


reason # 3.
last recession was in 2008 ie about 10 years ago.
It is about time ...

anyway do your own analysis, and do whatever you want.
you don't have to listen to me.
 
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Always interesting to look at a chart I would otherwise never see.

I am trend-following only, with a long-term set-up and intermediate-term set-up. I don't trade reversals or break-outs specifically, or chart patterns like ascending triangles.

Long-term, I would only have started looking at this in the last week of July, by which time momentum from this point of view had dropped off - we now have 7 consecutive weekly bars with overlapping ranges - so there are better opportunities elsewhere.

Intermediate-term, I would have got a weak buy signal 02/07 and a stronger one the next day. Both would have gone into profit but I would have had an exit signal on the 30th. A further buy signal followed on 08/08 but that has occurred while price was now in the highs of a range, with no over-riding reason to take this.

The indices are still bullish long-term and intermediate-term so no issues for me there.
 
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