How will YOU determine that we have bottomed?

You're thinking of Voelker in the early 80s. Greenspan did care about the markets and intervened several times...not nearly as extreme as Bernanke and Yellen later, but he did use rate cuts to try to prevent crashes.
Yup, senior moment, my age is showing. It was Paul Volcker
 
IIRC, Greenspan didnt give a rats ass about what the market did. He was going to do, and did, whatever it took to kill inflation and he was successful. I was buying CD's at the time with my kids college money, getting 14% and losing 5% of my purchasing power :D
Are you talking about “irrational exuberance” Greenspan? His official comments made clear he took account of the stock market. So much so that he was accused of “jawboning” the stock market at one of the annual reports to Congress and he got very defensive.

After that incident he seemed to care also about the perception that he cared about the stock market. That may partly explain why he raised 50 basis points at the meeting after the tech crash, to show that he wasn’t going to let the stock market crash affect policy. What a blunder that turned out to be.
 
Are you talking about “irrational exuberance” Greenspan? His official comments made clear he took account of the stock market. So much so that he was accused of “jawboning” the stock market at one of the annual reports to Congress and he got very defensive.

After that incident he seemed to care also about the perception that he cared about the stock market. That may partly explain why he raised 50 basis points at the meeting after the tech crash, to show that he wasn’t going to let the stock market crash affect policy. What a blunder that turned out to be.

See my post above yours, i meant Paul Volcker. But yeah, i remember Greenspans irrational exuberance remark
 
Yup, senior moment, my age is showing. It was Paul Volcker
I believe the first "save the market" cut was in 1987 by Greenspan. I was alive back then but not paying much attention to stocks. That's when the famous/infamous "Greenspan Put" phrase started.
 
Are you talking about “irrational exuberance” Greenspan? His official comments made clear he took account of the stock market. So much so that he was accused of “jawboning” the stock market at one of the annual reports to Congress and he got very defensive.

After that incident he seemed to care also about the perception that he cared about the stock market. That may partly explain why he raised 50 basis points at the meeting after the tech crash, to show that he wasn’t going to let the stock market crash affect policy. What a blunder that turned out to be.
%%
Looks like Mr Greenspan paid more attention to markets than the market did to his ''irrational exuberance'' comment.
WITH 2020 hindsight \MSFT made a yearly OCT 1987 bottom\ but did a 50% drawdown that month. IF we had to guess one bottom maybe month, OCT is a good ''bear killer '' as Stock Traders Almanac nicknames it.
BUT OCT being a bear killer did not work so well in 2000, or 2008.
Main thing i remember[reading]about Mr Volker ; he took very great offense @ Bunker Hunt's rebuke ''any f*ol can run a printing press, buy silver......'':D:D
 
%%
Looks like Mr Greenspan paid more attention to markets than the market did to his ''irrational exuberance'' comment.
WITH 2020 hindsight \MSFT made a yearly OCT 1987 bottom\ but did a 50% drawdown that month. IF we had to guess one bottom maybe month, OCT is a good ''bear killer '' as Stock Traders Almanac nicknames it.
BUT OCT being a bear killer did not work so well in 2000, or 2008.
Main thing i remember[reading]about Mr Volker ; he took very great offense @ Bunker Hunt's rebuke ''any f*ol can run a printing press, buy silver......'':D:D
October won’t work so well this year either.
 
When the Fed re-engages with QE. That's the only thing that saved it from tanking further than it did in 2018 after the pause in hikes and start of QE3.

Hey Morthole, you claimed if QE didnt happen it would continue to tank.

Lets see the results.

3,666.77 when you made this proclaimation.
3,911.74 5 Trading Days later.

Not too bright are you.
 
Hey Morthole, you claimed if QE didnt happen it would continue to tank.

Lets see the results.

3,666.77 when you made this proclaimation.
3,911.74 5 Trading Days later.

Not too bright are you.

Are you new to the markets? This is what is called a bear market bounce. This exact scenario happened twice already over the past 3 months.

sp6monthviewwildchild.JPG


The red arrow marks the peak of first bear-market bounce.

The green arrow marks the peak of the second bear-market bounce.

The blue arrow? This marks what you are calling, in all your genius analysis, the market bottom. If you really believe it, go long with all your bluster, mister.

Revisit this post in 5 weeks.
 
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