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Itâs important to note that hedge fund managers donât need to start selling right away. The 90-day window gives them an opportunity to try and persuade investors to change their minds. If stocks were to rally in the coming weeks, some investors might be convinced to sit tight and keep their money put. But with so much turmoil in the credit markets and uncertainly surrounding the health of the banking industry, a big year-end stock rally looks unlikely.
Right now, things look ugly for hedge funds, which control nearly $2 trillion in assets. The average hedge fund was down 5.8% going into September, which has been another brutal month, according to The Barclay Group, a hedge fund tracking service. The performance is even worse for so-called hedge fund fund-of-funds, which spread investor money between lots of different funds. Through the end of August, the average fund-of-funds was down 6.6%. Sol Waksman, Barclay Groupâs president, says this is the worst period for hedge funds heâs ever seen.
A flood of year-end redemptions wonât only mean a tidal wave of selling by hedge funds. It also could lead to outright liquidations and closings of funds. So far, the number of hedge funds that have closed shop isnât much great than in past years. But many in the industry are bracing for a wave of fund closing, especially smaller funds with under $2 billion in assets. In the current environment, itâs harder for smaller hedge funds to raise money and keep the investors they already have from leaving. Small fund-of-funds also may roll up the carpet.
In short, the next three months could be a blood bath in the hedge fund world.
Posted by: Matthew Goldstein on September 26