how traders maintain edge?
- Thread starter traderzhangSan
- Start date
A man should be prepared to sit on the nest.
Then when trouble comes they do not mess.
Find the right women of style and never let her go.
Fluff your feathers to let her know...
Others may come and others go
But this love, this mania, is ever so.
~stoney
Then when trouble comes they do not mess.
Find the right women of style and never let her go.
Fluff your feathers to let her know...
Others may come and others go
But this love, this mania, is ever so.
~stoney
Quote from zdreg:
be careful to properly enter your orders.
You should have told him before he read your message.
No that was on purpose and part of the poem.
The piece comes from a continuing series, " Irregular Plurals & Me's "
When I look at the net i see a lot more about women than woman-
For Example- http://www.askmen.com/specials/top_99_women/
Or this instructional video-- How to shower like a women!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qehxjub5lyo
Although I am highly monogamous to a fault-- I do have an active imagination -- these are the irregular Plurals of life. In fact I was wondering if over indulgence of these irregular plurals might be resulting in these tingly feet and hands. the fact is I love women. Not woman. woman can be a bit bossy at times. I love pretty pretty pretty
Dutchman no
Dutchwoman no
Dutchwomen yes!
Englishman. No
Englishwoman No
Englishwomen Yes!
Frenchman. No (talk about bossy!)
Frenchwoman... depends on date and time. Same with Italian here.
Frenchwomen Yes! the French... No.
It is important that you have Irregular Plurals in your life or your time with just one gal can get a bit staid. Hope This Helps! ~stoney
The piece comes from a continuing series, " Irregular Plurals & Me's "
When I look at the net i see a lot more about women than woman-
For Example- http://www.askmen.com/specials/top_99_women/
Or this instructional video-- How to shower like a women!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qehxjub5lyo
Although I am highly monogamous to a fault-- I do have an active imagination -- these are the irregular Plurals of life. In fact I was wondering if over indulgence of these irregular plurals might be resulting in these tingly feet and hands. the fact is I love women. Not woman. woman can be a bit bossy at times. I love pretty pretty pretty
Dutchman no
Dutchwoman no
Dutchwomen yes!
Englishman. No
Englishwoman No
Englishwomen Yes!
Frenchman. No (talk about bossy!)
Frenchwoman... depends on date and time. Same with Italian here.
Frenchwomen Yes! the French... No.
It is important that you have Irregular Plurals in your life or your time with just one gal can get a bit staid. Hope This Helps! ~stoney
Adapt!
Anyone who thinks a single strategy will make them $$ in any, and all markets is destined to ultimately fail to some degree.
Over the past 14+ years I've modified my trading based on what I saw in the markets so that I always had some approach to make $$$. Some years can be tougher than others depending on what the market will give you and how motivated one is to adapt.
Some day trading strategies work every day. Have a collection of strategies so if you miss a few setups, you can still catch a few others. Show me a day where there wasn't at least one of these high probability setups to trade:
Price breaks through a high to make a new high; price breaks through a low to make a new low.
Price falls a whole lot and then finds support that gets tested and holds, leading to a test of the previous resistance level in line (or higher); price rises a whole lot and then finds resistance that gets tested and holds, leading to a test of the previous support level in line (or lower).
Price consolidates in a narrow range on low volume, then breaks out in one direction or the other (usually the same direction that came before the consolidation).
I've now been trading through bull markets, bear markets and range bound markets and if you're watching at least 2 or 3 instruments, you should be able to make money off something using these very basic strategies.
Price breaks through a high to make a new high; price breaks through a low to make a new low.
Price falls a whole lot and then finds support that gets tested and holds, leading to a test of the previous resistance level in line (or higher); price rises a whole lot and then finds resistance that gets tested and holds, leading to a test of the previous support level in line (or lower).
Price consolidates in a narrow range on low volume, then breaks out in one direction or the other (usually the same direction that came before the consolidation).
I've now been trading through bull markets, bear markets and range bound markets and if you're watching at least 2 or 3 instruments, you should be able to make money off something using these very basic strategies.
Yes it's that word " trading " that causes the problem. Indeed. I guess I'll let the cat out of the bag but traders all trade the same way they scan the news of the day and find the fastest mover with the most volume then they buy on the first pull back and sell into any further gains.
Sure you have your swingers and your pure charters but for the most part every " trader " I've met does the same thing.
Investors often move contrary to the masses. When everyone tells an investor the same thing, a good one is looking the other way and how to benefit by that. Contrary Thinking serves you well in this game.
A trader has no great attraction to the market and fundamentals whereas an investor does. Traders are spawn through the modernization of the market. This doesn't make them bad people but they sure aren't as interesting as investors at a dinner party.
What of streaks? I'm on one now. Eight of my last ten investments have trounced the market. What of staying the course?
"stay the course" allegedly originated as a nautical metaphor on maintaining a constant, unaltering course while navigating. That sounds relentless and indeed if you have ever talked with a China only Hedgie... you know what staying the course is. Oh how that Gen Westmoreland ruined that phrase!
'stay' refers to the ropes or guys and sheets that hold the 'course' (mainsail) in a fixed position appropriate to the heading.
From Wkipedia-The phrase gained a central place in rhetoric due to the publication by journalist Stewart Alsop in his 1973 memoirs of a conversation with Winston Churchill. Alsop related that the British Prime Minister had pondered at the close of World War II, "America, it is a great and strong country, like a workhorse pulling the rest of the world out of despond and despair. But will it stay the course?"[6] The anecdote became a favorite of Democratic hawk Sen. Henry Jackson,[6] and was retold by Secretary of Defense William Cohen more than once during his tenure.[8]
"Stay the course" was later popularized by Ronald Reagan while campaigning for Republicans during the 1982 mid-term elections, arguing against changes in his economic policies. According to the Washington Post, Reagan used the "stay the course" phrase while on a ten-day political campaign through fourteen states,[9] and it was included in his 1982 budget message,[10] where he sought to allay fears that his policies were causing a recession.
>>Unfortunately Vice-President, George H.W. Bush, would later pick up the phrase as an argument for his election as President, both during the primaries and general campaign. His over-use of the phrase was parodied in a Saturday Night Live] sketch.
Ok reasons to not stay course-- Bush, Dana Carvey, Westmorland.
reasons to- Churchill, Reagan, Patton, stoney,
Ok Now what of the Hot Hand?
What then? 1.1. A brief history of the hot hand phenomenon with the help of Wilke, H.C. Barrett / Evolution and Human Behavior 30 (2009) I have merged some investing themes in-
A large body of research in psychology suggests that people have difficulty thinking about randomness, often
perceiving patterns that simply are not there (e.g., Falk & Konold, 1997; Nickerson, 2002). In particular, people seem
to have difficulty thinking properly about independent events (the Euro): series of events (bank failures) each of whose outcome has no
influence on the outcomes of future ones. One of the best known of these confusions was first identified by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) and has come to be known as
the hot hand fallacy. The phenomenon was first identified in observers' predictions about the likely outcomes of basketball shots.
Gilovich et al. (1985) found that both basketball players and fans judged that a player's chance of hitting a shot was greater following a successful shot than a miss. These
judgments revealed an implicit assumption of âstreaksâ or ârunsâ in players' shooting success. This can be described as a positive recency effect: a successful shot, or âhit,â boosts
the observers' subjective probability of another hit. In other words, the hot hand phenomenon reflects an implicit
assumption on the part of the observer that hits are positively autocorrelated, or clumped. However, when Gilovich et al.
(1985) analyzed t he actual data on which subject's predictions were made, they found that the shots were, in fact, independent. The hot hand assumption was therefore a
mistake, at least in this case.
The hot hand phenomenon is not limited to basketball, however. There exist a variety of studies showing that subjects expect and indeed perceive clumps in data that have
no clumps. While most of these studies have been done in other sports disciplines (e.g., Clark, 2003; Dorsey-Palmateer
& Smith, 2004), the hot hand phenomenon has also been reported in betting markets (Camerer, 1989) and finance!!!!!!!!!!
(Hendricks, Patel, & Zeckhauser, 1993) Got To Get That Book! Memo!
Finally, based on the kind of evolutionary reasoning laid out above, you expect deployment of the hot hand
mechanism to have some boundary conditions. In particular, the ecological context in which clumps are likely to occur in investing win ratios is increased when subjects are sampling the environment by moving through it in space or time and making good profit in 3 to six week holds or longer. Therefore one should expect this kind of sequential sampling to be a necessary condition for hot hand. (and a stable market) In such sampling conditions, positive autocorrelation occurs because the underlying process that causes a resource to occur in Place P or Time T makes it more likely that a second item will occur nearby in space or time. Repeat THE UNDERLYING PROCESS = RESEARCH!
However, this condition does not necessarily hold when the foraging activity itself
is having an effect on the probability of future encounters, (dark pools/Flash Crash)
as when resources are being removed from a finite pool without replacement.(overwhelming selling) In such circumstances, one would not
expect a clumped psychology (hot hand) to be deployed but, rather, a depletion psychology. Is that the stage we are at now with the market- should we be protecting gains? Is that changing one's spots or is that staying the course? If you can answer that question you can be an investor maintaining a traders edge!
hope this helps Zhang! `stoney
Sure you have your swingers and your pure charters but for the most part every " trader " I've met does the same thing.
Investors often move contrary to the masses. When everyone tells an investor the same thing, a good one is looking the other way and how to benefit by that. Contrary Thinking serves you well in this game.
A trader has no great attraction to the market and fundamentals whereas an investor does. Traders are spawn through the modernization of the market. This doesn't make them bad people but they sure aren't as interesting as investors at a dinner party.
What of streaks? I'm on one now. Eight of my last ten investments have trounced the market. What of staying the course?
"stay the course" allegedly originated as a nautical metaphor on maintaining a constant, unaltering course while navigating. That sounds relentless and indeed if you have ever talked with a China only Hedgie... you know what staying the course is. Oh how that Gen Westmoreland ruined that phrase!
'stay' refers to the ropes or guys and sheets that hold the 'course' (mainsail) in a fixed position appropriate to the heading.
From Wkipedia-The phrase gained a central place in rhetoric due to the publication by journalist Stewart Alsop in his 1973 memoirs of a conversation with Winston Churchill. Alsop related that the British Prime Minister had pondered at the close of World War II, "America, it is a great and strong country, like a workhorse pulling the rest of the world out of despond and despair. But will it stay the course?"[6] The anecdote became a favorite of Democratic hawk Sen. Henry Jackson,[6] and was retold by Secretary of Defense William Cohen more than once during his tenure.[8]
"Stay the course" was later popularized by Ronald Reagan while campaigning for Republicans during the 1982 mid-term elections, arguing against changes in his economic policies. According to the Washington Post, Reagan used the "stay the course" phrase while on a ten-day political campaign through fourteen states,[9] and it was included in his 1982 budget message,[10] where he sought to allay fears that his policies were causing a recession.
>>Unfortunately Vice-President, George H.W. Bush, would later pick up the phrase as an argument for his election as President, both during the primaries and general campaign. His over-use of the phrase was parodied in a Saturday Night Live] sketch.
Ok reasons to not stay course-- Bush, Dana Carvey, Westmorland.
reasons to- Churchill, Reagan, Patton, stoney,
Ok Now what of the Hot Hand?
What then? 1.1. A brief history of the hot hand phenomenon with the help of Wilke, H.C. Barrett / Evolution and Human Behavior 30 (2009) I have merged some investing themes in-
A large body of research in psychology suggests that people have difficulty thinking about randomness, often
perceiving patterns that simply are not there (e.g., Falk & Konold, 1997; Nickerson, 2002). In particular, people seem
to have difficulty thinking properly about independent events (the Euro): series of events (bank failures) each of whose outcome has no
influence on the outcomes of future ones. One of the best known of these confusions was first identified by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) and has come to be known as
the hot hand fallacy. The phenomenon was first identified in observers' predictions about the likely outcomes of basketball shots.
Gilovich et al. (1985) found that both basketball players and fans judged that a player's chance of hitting a shot was greater following a successful shot than a miss. These
judgments revealed an implicit assumption of âstreaksâ or ârunsâ in players' shooting success. This can be described as a positive recency effect: a successful shot, or âhit,â boosts
the observers' subjective probability of another hit. In other words, the hot hand phenomenon reflects an implicit
assumption on the part of the observer that hits are positively autocorrelated, or clumped. However, when Gilovich et al.
(1985) analyzed t he actual data on which subject's predictions were made, they found that the shots were, in fact, independent. The hot hand assumption was therefore a
mistake, at least in this case.
The hot hand phenomenon is not limited to basketball, however. There exist a variety of studies showing that subjects expect and indeed perceive clumps in data that have
no clumps. While most of these studies have been done in other sports disciplines (e.g., Clark, 2003; Dorsey-Palmateer
& Smith, 2004), the hot hand phenomenon has also been reported in betting markets (Camerer, 1989) and finance!!!!!!!!!!
(Hendricks, Patel, & Zeckhauser, 1993) Got To Get That Book! Memo!
Finally, based on the kind of evolutionary reasoning laid out above, you expect deployment of the hot hand
mechanism to have some boundary conditions. In particular, the ecological context in which clumps are likely to occur in investing win ratios is increased when subjects are sampling the environment by moving through it in space or time and making good profit in 3 to six week holds or longer. Therefore one should expect this kind of sequential sampling to be a necessary condition for hot hand. (and a stable market) In such sampling conditions, positive autocorrelation occurs because the underlying process that causes a resource to occur in Place P or Time T makes it more likely that a second item will occur nearby in space or time. Repeat THE UNDERLYING PROCESS = RESEARCH!
However, this condition does not necessarily hold when the foraging activity itself
is having an effect on the probability of future encounters, (dark pools/Flash Crash)
as when resources are being removed from a finite pool without replacement.(overwhelming selling) In such circumstances, one would not
expect a clumped psychology (hot hand) to be deployed but, rather, a depletion psychology. Is that the stage we are at now with the market- should we be protecting gains? Is that changing one's spots or is that staying the course? If you can answer that question you can be an investor maintaining a traders edge!
hope this helps Zhang! `stoney
Find an edge that can't be automated.