How to trade the Tsunami??

Tsunami is bad. But Nuclear is worse.

I am a retired trader born at the end of WWII. But I have vivid childhood memories from the word “nuclear’; especially hiding in school basements waiting for nuclear bombs to be dropped on my town.

Many people around the world who are older and in charge of the world’s wealth today will hear the words ‘nuclear, leak and fallout’ from Japan and remember their child hood fears. I would not be surprised to see all markets down big on Monday if this fear takes hold in these people.
 
Let's think bigger guys

Yes, Japan will have to clean up and rebuild. So construction equipment / materials will do well

Yes insurance companies are going to get owned

I think if this nuclear meltdown actually happens, we could see a boost in forms of other energy. Coal, for instance.

Short nuclear companies... CCJ...

What companies sell products to Japan? What do Japanese people buy? I would short any companies with exposure to Japan on a retail level... tech devices, luxury items, etc.

What restaurants have Japanese exposure. Does YUM has exposure over there? Who does? MCD of course. More shorts.

Are there any hospital stocks with exposure to Japan? They could get a boost. Medical devices too

Come on you guys lets make some money, throw out any idea you have, I think we can venture further from the obvious

Short Coke KO?

Sony, Toshiba, or Canon, Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan,

How about Japanese banks? Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc , MTU

I was surprised by the bounce in Alac, AFL, which has huge
exposure in Japan.

Reinsurance companies: FSR, MRH, PTP



We need a list of companies that have 15%+ Japanese exposure

Throw it out there folks!
 
Quote from Rabbitone:

Tsunami is bad. But Nuclear is worse.

I am a retired trader born at the end of WWII. But I have vivid childhood memories from the word “nuclear’; especially hiding in school basements waiting for nuclear bombs to be dropped on my town.

Many people around the world who are older and in charge of the world’s wealth today will hear the words ‘nuclear, leak and fallout’ from Japan and remember their child hood fears. I would not be surprised to see all markets down big on Monday if this fear takes hold in these people.
More...

Silly wabbits. Nuclear warheads exist. But nuclear (atomic) bombs don't! You've been afraid of a lie your whole life.

Pearl Harbor, Hiroshima, the USA and Japan Emperor were both involved in... ahem... staging them...
 
Yes, the year of the rabbit! It is rabbit – dufus. And I can see that from your 2 whole posts.

I was not talking directly about nuclear bombs but the work nuclear (see the next post). I was talking about the nuclear leaks from the reactors. Where have you been. That’s all the news media has been talking about. I was saying many people from their child hood on have been inundated with ‘nuclear’ through events like the cold war, three mile island, nuclear plant protests and Chernoybol. I was implying this spells FEAR for many people automatically. This fear I expect may translate into selling.

Quote from stockstalkerv3:

Silly wabbits. Nuclear warheads exist. But nuclear (atomic) bombs don't! You've been afraid of a lie your whole life.

Pearl Harbor, Hiroshima, the USA and Japan Emperor were both involved in... ahem... staging them...
More...
 
High level of radiation observed at nuclear plant

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_51.html


Nuclear accident rated at level 4

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/13_06.html

Mayors call for safer nuclear facilities

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/13_04.html

3 patients exposed to nuclear radiation in Fukushima

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_57.html

Nuclear reactors in serious status

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/13_10.html

Japan quake causes emergencies at 5 nuke reactors
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

For battered Japan, a new threat: nuclear meltdown
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/For-battered-Japan-a-new-apf-3568054461.html?x=0
 
Yeah some of these trades are just fear / hope trades. Short term holds.
It is important to distinguish between the two.

They'll have one good / bad quarter or series of quarters and that will be it.

Though, the longer term holds would deal with construction, as that will be going on for years.
Also, trades involving the Japanese consumer will be longer term holds, as this WILL have an impact for an extended period.
 
Another potential trade.....

Any airlines with a chunk of business in Japan. Less people flying there, and less Japanese taking vacations....

Also, do any of the travel websites have a big chunk of Japanese business? Priceline? etc etc Fewer Japanese will be traveling.

Any online website with a lot of Japanese business can get hit this quarter since power / internet connection is down.

Read someone else mention Nat Gas in another thread. Is this, combined with oil prices, the catalyst to nat gas?
 
Or just short Nikkei futures lol.

Personally, I've bought some out-of-the-money Japanese ETF (EWJ) puts and I intend to short Toyota and some Japanese insurance companies once I get a signal confirmation. I'd also have to wait a bit before I go long on GM and USD/JPY.
 
About Toyota...

I was thinking...

Yes they will probably sell off at first

But eventually people are going to buy cars. There were a LOT of destroyed cars that need to be replaced.

So, Toyota, Honda, etc may see slowed sales at first, but eventually they will have a phenomenal year...
 
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