How to trade the EUR now

well, I got filled on my short eur.usd. the limit was at 3200, but as is not uncommon with ib I got some positive slippage and got filled at 32005

that's a full load for me so I can't let it run against me indefinately

so I have a stop in to unload about an eighth of it at 3225

It's really been a very sad story

now I am reduced to trying to pick a top

Hopefully, they are teaching cadets at Westpoint to never get in this situation
 
Quote from oldtime:

well, I got filled on my short eur.usd. the limit was at 3200, but as is not uncommon with ib I got some positive slippage and got filled at 32005

that's a full load for me so I can't let it run against me indefinately

so I have a stop in to unload about an eighth of it at 3225

It's really been a very sad story

now I am reduced to trying to pick a top

Hopefully, they are teaching cadets at Westpoint to never get in this situation
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I'm flat. I refuse to go long on this again unless it retreats to 3140
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

I'm flat. I refuse to go long on this again unless it retreats to 3140
More...
If you knew how much I have lost on the short side of that pair, you would not only feel sorry for me but also a have a sense of reverence for a man who has endured so much pain.

and I'm short a full load, and still losing money

I have a buy stop in at 3225 to end at least some of the suffering

and the pathetic thing is, that pair is the least of my concerns

the one that is really hurting my feelings is my long AUD.USD from 502 (even though it is my smallest position)
 
Quote from oldtime:

If you knew how much I have lost on the short side of that pair, you would not only feel sorry for me but also a have a sense of reverence for a man who has endured so much pain.

and I'm short a full load, and still losing money

I have a buy stop in at 3225 to end at least some of the suffering

and the pathetic thing is, that pair is the least of my concerns

the one that is really hurting my feelings is my long AUD.USD from 502 (even though it is my smallest position)
More...

Telling you that I feel sorry for you seems really condescending to me. However, I really don't understand why you are choosing to be so stubborn with this short when the tendancy is "supportive" ( not necessarily bullish ). I have a grand feeling of confidence that despite the disasters, the powers that be want to keep the Euro going. To me, this means that there is a bullish bias. From here, the strategy is really simple: buy the dips.

But, who am I to question you. You have a far better track record than I do.
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

Telling you that I feel sorry for you seems really condescending to me. However, I really don't understand why you are choosing to be so stubborn with this short when the tendancy is "supportive" ( not necessarily bullish ). I have a grand feeling of confidence that despite the disasters, the powers that be want to keep the Euro going. To me, this means that there is a bullish bias. From here, the strategy is really simple: buy the dips.

But, who am I to question you. You have a far better track record than I do.
More...
it really has nothing to do with fundamentals, it's just a matter of getting the whole portfolio balanced. If I go long eur then I have to go short something else

I'm not really betting on Europe dropping off the face of the earth, although that would be a quick solution to my problems

So far you are quite correct, that eur.usd just keeps going up and up
 
It isn't really that I expect the eurusd to go up and up. Because of the attitude of the so called powers that be, I believe the probability of it bouncing back up after any given fall is greater than a continued fall. Therefore, I am very inclined to sit and wait for a long time if a position goes against me. Recall the position we were discussing a few weeks ago. I was losing well over 300 pips at one point, but finished over 100 pips up.

As you said, so far I'm correct. It remains to be seen if this continues. In the meantime, I regularly take my profits off the table and transfer them in to my regular margin account. I'm not like you; I'm only trading with a few thousand dollars.
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

It isn't really that I expect the eurusd to go up and up. Because of the attitude of the so called powers that be, I believe the probability of it bouncing back up after any given fall is greater than a continued fall. Therefore, I am very inclined to sit and wait for a long time if a position goes against me. Recall the position we were discussing a few weeks ago. I was losing well over 300 pips at one point, but finished over 100 pips up.

As you said, so far I'm correct. It remains to be seen if this continues. In the meantime, I regularly take my profits off the table and transfer them in to my regular margin account. I'm not like you; I'm only trading with a few thousand dollars.
More...
few thousand, few hundred, a few pennies, it don't matter to me

good luck with your trading
 
The 85 days moving average of 1.317 sends EurUsd back while the 200 days moving average rises up to 1.292. The exit from this range will outline the next months trend.
 

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