How to trade the EUR now

Quote from SimpleTrades:

I don't know how you guys thought about all of this on Friday, but my thought process went like this.

Either they will find a resolution this weekend or it will be delayed, but a resolution will be found soon no matter what.

If delayed, EUR/USD will fall a little, so after the fall double up my position. If resolution found EUR/USD will open much higher. Either way, resolution will be found and EUR//USD will rise.

So, I went long at the end of the day on Friday. Initially, today I was losing money, but a resolution was established (in theory), and the EUR/USD jumped higher. I promptly sold ( 48 pips); I bough back in again as it fell a little; I sold again ( 17 pips); Again, 15 pips. Total earned in two hours: 80 pips.

I find the EUR/USD very easy to trade right now. I'll grab the cash as I can. I'm sure the ease will eventually end.
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the problem with fundamentals is you never know how much is already priced in. It gets to be like a chess game where the market is moving 3 moves ahead of the news.

nice trade selling on that big candle, congratulations

most of the money is made in just a few minutes, gotta be quick when it hands you an unexpected pleasant surprise, I know of no way to anticipate such a strong quick move. You had to be there.
 
Quote from oldtime:

the problem with fundamentals is you never know how much is already priced in. It gets to be like a chess game where the market is moving 3 moves ahead of the news.

nice trade selling on that big candle, congratulations

most of the money is made in just a few minutes, gotta be quick when it hands you an unexpected pleasant surprise, I know of no way to anticipate such a strong quick move. You had to be there.
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Oldtime, that quick move was almost (85%) guaranteed. A resolution was inevitable. That's why I went long at the end of the day Friday. The big move was either going to be the result of a weekend decision or decision a short time later. Either way, EUR/USD was headed higher.
 
And don't go long right now. When Europe wakes up, the EUR/USD will be dragged down to atleast the middle of that large candle.

My highly educated guess! :D :D
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

Oldtime, that quick move was almost (85%) guaranteed. A resolution was inevitable. That's why I went long at the end of the day Friday. The big move was either going to be the result of a weekend decision or decision a short time later. Either way, EUR/USD was headed higher.
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yes, but you knew that, I knew that, everybody knew that. So how did you know it wasn't already priced in?

in forex, good news is not bullish, it's just news
 
Quote from oldtime:

yes, but you knew that, I knew that, everybody knew that. So how did you know it wasn't already priced in?

in forex, good news is not bullish, it's just news
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... despite the fact that "you know it", you're still short. Does that answer your question?

If its already priced in, nothing happens, or it goes against you a little. So, you get out of the trade and move on. Which leaves you with either a little loss or a big gain. If we were to say the chances of it being priced in already is 50%, you are still way ahead on average since the payoff if it is not priced in is much greater than the little loss if it is priced in.
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

... despite the fact that "you know it", you're still short. Does that answer your question?
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I knew there would be a resolution, I didn't know how the market would react

I am never wrong, but often early

at anyrate, congratulations on a good trade

otherwise, it is poor form to rub it in the face of guys on the other side

I don't predict what the market is going to do, I just tell you what I am doing, for conversation and fun, and hopefully profit
 
Quote from oldtime:


otherwise, it is poor form to rub it in the face of guys on the other side
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Sorry about that. I don't mean to rub it in. However, yes, I am rather pleased with myself that I have recovered and moved beyond all of my accumulated losses over the last two+ years thanks to this EUR/USD pair.

I began my contribution with the point that I don't understand why people are going short. I recall having this argument with Bwolinsky over a year ago who thought the EUR/USD would be at about 80 US cents by now. It simply isn't in the world's best interest to let the EURO collapse. It will be propped up.
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

Sorry about that. I don't mean to rub it in. However, yes, I am rather pleased with myself that I have recoved and moved beyond all of my accumulated losses over the last two+ years thanks to this EUR/USD pair.

I began my contribution with the point that I don't understand why people are going short. I recall having this argument with Bwolinsky over a year ago who thought the EUR/USD would be at about 80 US cents by now. It simply isn't in the world's best interest to let the EURO collapse. It will be propped up.
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the concern for the EU is to keep it below 1.40

anything below 1.24 and the dollar starts suffering from demand destruction

for a guy like me who averages down, that 1.24 to 1.40 range is the range I must be able to afford. Don't really matter to me if I am long or short. I also have made a lot of money recently on that pair from the long side. I've been long for almost three months.

This last trade is the first time from the short side in a while, and most of that decision had to do with finally getting long AUD.USD. I never like to be long aud and eur at the same time.
 
Quote from oldtime:

the concern for the EU is to keep it below 1.40

anything below 1.24 and the dollar starts suffering from demand destruction.
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I think you're very right, and every trade I make has similar boundaries for my limit and stop.

Long again at 1.30265
 
Quote from SimpleTrades:

I think you're very right, and every trade I make has similar boundaries for my limit and stop.

Long again at 1.30265
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where is your stop?
 
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