How to trade like a retarded genius - an actual strategy that works

[MrMuppet]

According to your belief then cash fx trading is a road to ruin yet multi billion funds engage in that every single day without the benefit of seeing client flow like liquidity providers. I tend to disagree with you on this particular claim of crossflows. Retail in general is doomed regardless of asset class to the tune of 95%+

you. are. not. a. multi. billion. fund.

Repeat that every time you switch on your computer. Write that down and stick it to the wall where you can see it when you're trading.

A multi billion fund employs a horde of the best analysts and has their ears everywhere, you have not and that's why you cannot compete in these markets.

They trade through venues you don't have access to, they execute by using tech you cannot afford. There is no way you outtrade them on a consistent basis.

So for retail cash FX is an absolute no go

 

[MrMuppet]

Betting on the intraday movement of the S&P using options is not a bs strategy.
A trader can make serious money doing that, assuming they know the general future and when to bet.

To make serious money from the market....the formula is simple: You need liquidity. You need high revolutions, number of trades. And you need leverage, options. All of those are checked.

What do you make....studying the Fundamentals, of low float, random, segment corners of the market,

that again is utter BS. You don't need liquidity and you don't need a lot of trades. You need to be the liquidity others execute against because then you set the price

Why would you prefer a random price movement over a a position that is worth 200.000 US which you can get for 190.000?
Are you willing to hold it and capable of managing the risk of your inventory?

The reason you don't see these trades is because you have no clue how to evaluate what you are trading and that's why you gamble on direction.

Timing is nothing, edge is everything

 

[easymon1]

Timing is nothing,

That's a new one... pass the popcorn.

 

[zghorner]

thats so much BS.
Really, I'm not interested in a pissing contest here but betting on intraday direction in the most competitive market with the most crossflows you can find in any market is definitely the road to ruin for retail.

Pick a niche market that nobody cares about, learn it inside out including fundamentals, supply chains, trade financing and macro factors and become a master of that market. Once your home turf gets out of line you will most likely be the first to notice and you will be able to position yourself properly before the headline hunters chime in. You liquidate into them for a profit, rinse, repeat.

That's what the big boys do in the big markets, that's what I'm doing to make a living and that's what basically every profitable trader I know does. Table selection is extremely important in this game and so is specializing. Don't go where the competition is, go where you are the competition.

There were a couple of threads by @s0mmi which are absolute gold in my opinion. He doesn't post much anymore since I think he wandered off into crypto land (which is completely understandable).

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...make-over-1-million-a-year-at-my-firm.280041/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/its-been-3-years-and-im-back.302474/page-2

He specialized in ozzie STIRS and knew that market like the back of his hand. Read those threads over and over again and you will realize how much work it takes to become really good.
I also started out trading STIRS especially Eurodollars and Short Stirling until ZIRP hit and volumes died down. I'm not saying that this is a good market for beginners, especially since it's so difficult to understand the fundamentals, but what can I say? I much rather sat on a bid for a long end bundle for the entire day than duking it out against the machines in the front end or the belly. Why? Because nobody gave a shit about the long end, they traded the 2y treasuries instead.
But when a lonely soul came along, he HAD to take my price and I either could spread it off where the liquidity was when the entire curve moved or carry inventory with a huge edge and liquidate into the next muppet. That's how I still trade today and the only difference is that I branched out into multiple markets that nobody gives a shit about to increase trade frequency.

You don't need to be a spreader though, the approach is important. You want to be the guy to set the price and let the other guys trade into you. Because if you know the market better than the majority of the players the likelyhood of you being on the right side of the trade is a lot higher.

Look at RIBT. Everyone was shilling the trade "because food crisis". Once you read into their balance sheet and actually took the effort to listen to their earnings conference, you knew it is a piece of shit and the only guys you're trading against are retail FOMO momentum hunters expecting the stock to explode. Easy short...because no big guy ever cares about a stock like that.

So that's why I was excited about the introduction of cash settled cheese futures on the CME. Another shit market nobody pays attention to, another market to exploit.

holy shit thanks for posting those threads.

 

[MacBookProHo]

So did you do exactly that? Bank 6 figures today?

Would it make any personal difference to you....if I said, and displayed, I banked two figures today, or six figures, or four figures, or seven figures, or three figures, or five figures,

Numbers are designed to appeal to the small-minded, just like Ken Calhoun showing he traded 41 million in stock volume, but had no actual profits/or very secretive little profit.

 

[Overnight]

Would it make any personal difference to you....if I said, and displayed, I banked two figures today, or six figures, or four figures, or seven figures, or three figures, or five figures...

Yes, it would BIGLY, because YOU are the one who claims that if you just went long at X and exited at Y you would have 6 figures.

Well, everyone can make that claim. If you bought at the June 16 low and sold now, you'd have 60 figures.

It doesn't mean a damned thing, what you SAY! SHOW us, don't TELL us. Otherwise, have a steaming hearty cup of STFU.

 

[M.W.]

Except I have traded sizable volume for over 1.5 decades as retail and averaged around 20% returns every single year. Plenty enough for me given the stringent risk profile I operate with.

you. are. not. a. multi. billion. fund.

Repeat that every time you switch on your computer. Write that down and stick it to the wall where you can see it when you're trading.

A multi billion fund employs a horde of the best analysts and has their ears everywhere, you have not and that's why you cannot compete in these markets.

They trade through venues you don't have access to, they execute by using tech you cannot afford. There is no way you outtrade them on a consistent basis.

So for retail cash FX is an absolute no go

 

[MacBookProHo]

1.5 decades as retail and averaged around 20% returns every single year

Could you expand that 20% annual return to....35%.....66%.....98%.....149%.....288%.....471%....1,194%...,
Crank up the risk/reward and skill factor to truly bank,
Go from playing with sparklers, to creating a nuclear bomb -- it's possible with great timing, understanding, wisdom, process, observation, and options,

 

[taowave]

You finally got one thing right..

Trade as you suggest,and you are creating a nuclear bomb

Could you expand that 20% annual return to....35%.....66%.....98%.....149%.....288%.....471%....1,194%...,
Crank up the risk/reward and skill factor to truly bank,
Go from playing with sparklers, to creating a nuclear bomb -- it's possible with great timing, understanding, wisdom, observation, and options,

 

[MacBookProHo]

You finally got one thing right..
Trade as you suggest,and you are creating a nuclear bomb

If you are going to do something....do it grande, with ambition, TaoWave,

https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/
The Holy Grail, or a nuclear bomb, of market money returns. Align that enriched plutonium around the core,