How to swim with the sharks?

Whooa...slow down there master-trader. This is the ecomomics forum. We in fact are at historical levels when it comes to re-paying our debt, which in fact is a problem admitted to by the brainchilds in your elite circle, covertibility.

Michael B.


Quote from Covertibility:

This forum should be called doom and gloom. Financial collapses, real estate bubbles, gold nuts..etc... Thank God most of you don't have real money.
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Quote from andrasnm:

very ill informed or very naive and of course a majority. It is this majority of people who think everything is going to be alright despite their instincts and facts.
I pray that is the case but I have learned well that things are seldom as they seem....
Adjustments in world financial markets and economies are inevitable. Marx knew that as many in Europe had lived through times you are unaware. (no, I am not a Marxist :)
If you had studied history that I doubt very much you would know that these cycles go back much longer than the great Depression. If you think that an other major down cycle is not going to happen you are majority and very wrong. Yes, most everyday schmoe thinks Greenspoon is going to save us every year - like Santa is coming to the mall every time in December. But one year Santa will get hit by a bus....
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Cycles happen no matter what and I guess we''re due for something pretty bad but its kind of hard to fathom a Great Depression type phenomon.
In any event, if the US falls, the world is going down too.
 
How about a little of everything?
A few Euros.
Some Euro real estate, some US real estate, some greenbacks, some Aussie and Canadian currency along with a little gold?
Fairly diversified, no? I'm a little ignorant of China/India, so I'll leave those out for now.
 
with out a tommy-gun that is....
whether you believe it or not this is an exercise in imagination and using agility to survive, better yet flourish when most suffer due to bad credit and lack of jobs.
I like lending idea and I like gold and anything stores value and can carry. If the dollar goes to shit all the other currencies will too except the swiss. The euro is too tied to us by selling us the luxury euro wares. The swiss is tied to gold.
Rest of the Europe is as much doo-doo as we are economically.
Actually we fare better because our food! The Norwegians and Swiss smartly stay out of the EU (imitating the US)
I will speculate gold futures, crude, grains etc for cash flow and try to make cash elsewhere that I immediately invest as $$ is getting too loosy goosy
How to short stocks? LEAPS !!
Dow will see 4000-6000 again my friends.
 
Quote from andrasnm:

If you knew that the financial system somehow will melt down what would you do?
1) speculate in commodities
2) buy a ranch somewhere and raise food
3) buy real estate

I know it is a loaded question (with a similar one) posted before but the knowledge of this would make someone a huge edge if one was prepared.

I am planning to trade commodity spreads to make cash and invest the cash in RE and or gold, silver etc.
The problem is always timing and inaccurate foresight, coming events could unfold many ways and even radical banning of speculative venues such commodities markets is not out of the question (it was discussed after the 70,80's inflationary times) by the morons calling themselves politicians.

So the above list being non inclusive what else can one do to make money in others misery?
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No wonder Economics is called the "dismal science." Rare in this section do you hear of anyone predicting better times are ahead, yet the long term trend is better incomes and better lifestyles for most of us.

IMO if you really believe an economic castrophe lies in the future is liquidate and put your cash under the matress and then when things look better buy whatever is cheap as it will be going up in value.

DS
 
Quote from andrasnm:

If you knew that the financial system somehow will melt down what would you do?
1) speculate in commodities
2) buy a ranch somewhere and raise food
3) buy real estate

I know it is a loaded question (with a similar one) posted before but the knowledge of this would make someone a huge edge if one was prepared.

I am planning to trade commodity spreads to make cash and invest the cash in RE and or gold, silver etc.
The problem is always timing and inaccurate foresight, coming events could unfold many ways and even radical banning of speculative venues such commodities markets is not out of the question (it was discussed after the 70,80's inflationary times) by the morons calling themselves politicians.

So the above list being non inclusive what else can one do to make money in others misery?
More...

===============

Andrasnm;

[1]Speculate;
stocks, dividend gold stocks,occasional derivatives and i wouldnt call an eventual downtrend a melt down like some .

[2]Actualy prefer ranch & homegrown tomatoes, Kroger lite canned fruit for decades.

Interesting that book, published in 1988 ,Swim with the Sharks has lengthly intro including Charles Schwab, Billy Graham & Donald Rumsfeld.



[3]Avoid real estate like Trump Towers,
even if the following is the least likely scenario,.

That greybearded old timer RE investor said after another [not Trump-tower] tower got hit during Clinton 8 years,
[before it & twin tower got got destroyed -9-11],
dont want that tower -its a target:cool:

[4]Probably horrible if one doesnt have a working selling plan;
but actually 1929 had plenty of opportunity, 1930's had even more.:cool:
 
Your theory would only work if the coming meltdown is manifested like the last Great Depression i.e. major deflation with prolonged lull in all economic activity. You cash would be worth something - there was no inflation in the US in the 30's.

If the more probable (by my estimation)
scenario - inflation, will commence with a bang at the end a short hyper-inflation. Cash would be worthless unless it is silver or gold coinage.
If we had this inflation the govt. could write off the huge debt and keep some of the entitlements and promises they made.
There is no any way that they can EVER catch up - they are pigs and playing in their own excrement.

I think more and more the WTO and the world economic cabal has less and less control over the events and economies.
This is proven by the wars real and imaginary we are forced to fight. (and unable to pay for)
If you disagree with this you are welcome to go back to your world of make belive prosperity and sound policies.
True this forum has a few people who make noise of these facts and how to actually profit from it.
Consider this - there is no good argument to write otherwise and no one would read it (much less believe it).

This does not mean that we are in the majority simply it is the economic forum and these talks are popular.
The majority of people are scared of these ideas, consider them unpleasant and/or downright unamerican, which is about the stupidest thing I can imagine. Accept this as a highly probable scenario and try to plan and make some $$$ from it. What is your alternative?

P.S. There is one country in the world with sound policies and prosperity exceeding the US - Swizerland.
Actually, most real economist know and accept it - now compare the US to Swizerland,
Complete opposite in all areas.

Quote from dougcs:

No wonder Economics is called the "dismal science." Rare in this section do you hear of anyone predicting better times are ahead, yet the long term trend is better incomes and better lifestyles for most of us.

IMO if you really believe an economic castrophe lies in the future is liquidate and put your cash under the matress and then when things look better buy whatever is cheap as it will be going up in value.

DS
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Look at the Swedish model also.

Michael B.


There is one country in the world with sound policies and prosperity exceeding the US - Swizerland.
Actually, most real economist know and accept it - now compare the US to Swizerland,
Complete opposite in all areas.
 
Quote from andrasnm:

Your theory would only work if the coming meltdown is manifested like the last Great Depression i.e. major deflation with prolonged lull in all economic activity. You cash would be worth something - there was no inflation in the US in the 30's.

If the more probable (by my estimation)
scenario - inflation, will commence with a bang at the end a short hyper-inflation. Cash would be worthless unless it is silver or gold coinage.
If we had this inflation the govt. could write off the huge debt and keep some of the entitlements and promises they made.
There is no any way that they can EVER catch up - they are pigs and playing in their own excrement.

I think more and more the WTO and the world economic cabal has less and less control over the events and economies.
This is proven by the wars real and imaginary we are forced to fight. (and unable to pay for)
If you disagree with this you are welcome to go back to your world of make belive prosperity and sound policies.
True this forum has a few people who make noise of these facts and how to actually profit from it.
Consider this - there is no good argument to write otherwise and no one would read it (much less believe it).

This does not mean that we are in the majority simply it is the economic forum and these talks are popular.
The majority of people are scared of these ideas, consider them unpleasant and/or downright unamerican, which is about the stupidest thing I can imagine. Accept this as a highly probable scenario and try to plan and make some $$$ from it. What is your alternative?

P.S. There is one country in the world with sound policies and prosperity exceeding the US - Swizerland.
Actually, most real economist know and accept it - now compare the US to Swizerland,
Complete opposite in all areas.
More...

If you tell me the details of your gloom and doom forecast:

when it will happen , how it will unfold, the early warning signs and your basis for your forecasted meltdown or meltup or hyperinflation or whatever will transpire.

Then I'll look at your trackrecord (please provide) in making this type of forecast and if I see you have a great record, then I will research what does well in the environment you forecast.

Otherwise, I'll keep trading stocks and making a nice living doing so.

I tend to be skeptical of economic forecasting. For a recent article on this:

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2513037

One quote from it:

"Why have economic forecasts missed the mark so much?" said economist Steve Morrell of Barry University in Miami Shores, Fla. "I don't have a good answer."


DS
 
Doug,

No offense but you make no sense. Talking about track record and trading performance! I am not soliciting you for money in my fund nor for any contributions or relationship. So my record is NOT SUBJECT of this at all. However, if curious I provide mine if you do so first. :)

forecast and economics are dubious by nature and if I had exact time and manner which it will unfold I would not talk to you at least (nor anyone else :)
I am just talking in general and finding ways to speculate.
The saying "when you suspect to fall it is wise to sit down" seems appropriate.
Quote from dougcs:

If you tell me the details of your gloom and doom forecast:

when it will happen , how it will unfold, the early warning signs and your basis for your forecasted meltdown or meltup or hyperinflation or whatever will transpire.

Then I'll look at your trackrecord (please provide) in making this type of forecast and if I see you have a great record, then I will research what does well in the environment you forecast.

Otherwise, I'll keep trading stocks and making a nice living doing so.

I tend to be skeptical of economic forecasting. For a recent article on this:

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2513037

One quote from it:

"Why have economic forecasts missed the mark so much?" said economist Steve Morrell of Barry University in Miami Shores, Fla. "I don't have a good answer."


DS
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