How to stop predicting the TOP

[nooby_mcnoob]

Sounds like Oct 2018. That singular event has fucked me out of so much profit, because I now have to use an abundance of caution. It is so pathetic.

And the best part is that you can leverage via options so that the profit is many X that of the loss.

 

[Overnight]

And the best part is that you can leverage via options so that the profit is many X that of the loss.

OPTIONS ARE NUCKING FUTS! I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THEM. OMG YOU DES AND BWS WILL BE THE DEATH OF ME YET!

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

OPTIONS ARE NUCKING FUTS! I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THEM. OMG YOU DES AND BWS WILL BE THE DEATH OF ME YET!

I would like the option to buy an $AAPL from you in 1 year for $300

 

[Pkay]

Curious - how is it barely trending? Using which method and what timeframe/lookback period?

Just a quick visual on the daily/weekly chart shows that the S&P have been trending higher most of the time since 2009, yes?

How to define a trend is an interesting question though. i would not want to use a trend line, but a mathematical definition.

One way could be to compare the # of days net positive/negative and compare the averages. If I randomly select the last 100 trading days on ES (small sample size, I know, but just for a fast illustration):

61/100 days = positive net change

Average change = 0,12 %

Average positive net change = 0,50 %

Average negative net change = -0,48 %

An even simpler way may simply be to measure the price difference close to close. That would be 382,25 or 13,18 %.

Another way may be a simple MA. For the last 100 days - the ES closed above the 20-Day SMA 81/100 days.

Great post. Closing above the 20 day SMA is a good indicator.

 

[Pkay]

Ever heard the expression - you don't bring a knife to a gun battle.

I keep stressing, but you keep ignoring, that I trade with the trend intraday. Which for the most part has nothing to do with the daily or longer trend. Save the daily charts and any further comment until you understand this basic point. Notice with others you are also having a problem understanding the basics also.

When I first started out I learned, quickly, to post less read more.

So if the daily and weekly trend was up you would trade down if the 1 hour chart was down?

 

[murray t turtle]

When an apple falls from a tree at the end it will stop on the ground, but during the drop I would not bet that the apple will go up.

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Isaac NeWton has little to do with trading/inVesting, except he proved trends;
but sounds like you may make it with your red stop, But again I don't buy overpriced junk like TSLA, LOL; but I have bought junk silVer, some. [ IF I do sell something its usually an under performer like the DOW, somehow...…] I don't have an opinion on AAPL; I do have a commercial size orchard, on a hillside/hill side+ tend to buy tech, 1st, 4th quarter...…...S&P 500 looks better than 1999, but contrary to some, S&P 500 did not really do well like tech,1999, + TSLa is nothing in '99.,

 

[SunTrader]

So if the daily and weekly trend was up you would trade down if the 1 hour chart was down?

If I get a reversal signal, along with time, price and pattern setting up, I take it. Period.

BTW, get ready to snicker, I look at one minute time frame to do so.

 

[maxinger]

OPTIONS ARE NUCKING FUTS! I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THEM. OMG YOU DES AND BWS WILL BE THE DEATH OF ME YET!

don't worry. You are not alone. I don't like Options trading.

There are other easier way to trade to earn $$$.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

If I get a reversal signal, along with time, price and pattern setting up, I take it. Period.

BTW, get ready to snicker, I look at one minute time frame to do so.

Does ES or nq have reversal signals anymore intraday??? Jk

 

[Pkay]

If I get a reversal signal, along with time, price and pattern setting up, I take it. Period.

BTW, get ready to snicker, I look at one minute time frame to do so.

One minute time frame! Many people say that is just noise but really interested to know how you trade it. Do you trade the 1 minute on the direction of the daily or weekly trend? Thanks.