How to stop predicting the TOP

[trader1974]

Point being - if you have a very strong opinion, you will have a very difficult time taking a golden trade set-up that runs counter to your innate bias.

I think it's good to have a bias in favor of the trend, the stop is for when you're not right.

 

[bone]

I think it's good to have a bias in favor of the trend, the stop is for when you're not right.

The Stop is for money management, pure and simple. You can ultimately be "right", but run out of capital long before you realize the fruits of your bias.

 

[trader1974]

When an apple falls from a tree at the end it will stop on the ground, but during the drop I would not bet that the apple will go up.

 

[bone]

Newtonian Physics has absolutely nothing to do with markets.

Markets cannot sell off without buyers. In fact, trading exchanges will literally suspend trading at prescribed limits until sufficient counter parties enter the marketplace.

When an apple falls from a tree at the end it will stop on the ground, but during the fall I would not bet that the apple will rise.

 

[SunTrader]

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In this series of Nasdaq prices, if you sit down to trade and see that the daily trend is bearish, will you open short positions knowing that the downtrend can last very little?
I do not get it.
What is a trade?
Take a risk to try to win the highest number of points.
The moment you open bearish positions against the general trend, it may work out well, I agree with that, but I am sure you will not get the same amount of points in those trades.
So, I don't say I can't win like that.
I say that the trades will be lower quality trades than if it operates in favor of the general trend because those trades will get fewer points.
That is called Kamikazae trade and it doesn't usually end well.
The risk must be to obtain the greatest reward. Amen.

Ever heard the expression - you don't bring a knife to a gun battle.

I keep stressing, but you keep ignoring, that I trade with the trend intraday. Which for the most part has nothing to do with the daily or longer trend. Save the daily charts and any further comment until you understand this basic point. Notice with others you are also having a problem understanding the basics also.

When I first started out I learned, quickly, to post less read more.

 

[Overnight]

Ever heard the expression - you don't bring a knife to a gun battle.

I keep stressing, but you keep ignoring, that I trade with the trend intraday...

What intraday trend?

What intraday trend?

What intraday trend?

What intraday trend?

I have a hell of a time seeing intraday trends. Wish I knew the secret.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

What intraday trend?

View attachment 217144

What intraday trend?
View attachment 217145

What intraday trend?

View attachment 217146

What intraday trend?

View attachment 217147

I have a hell of a time seeing intraday trends. Wish I knew the secret.

Intraday trend is buy the dip until confirmed otherwise.

 

[Overnight]

Intraday trend is buy the dip until confirmed otherwise.

And you'll never know when it is confirmed until you keep buying a dip on a week of lower highs and lower lows, which you will notice only after the fact. By then it is too late.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

And you'll never know when it is confirmed until you keep buying a dip on a week of lower highs and lower lows, which you will notice only after the fact. By then it is too late.

Maybe. But say you have 10 weeks of buying the dip and then 2 weeks of not. You're still up 8 weeks of pure sex pump.

 

[Overnight]

Maybe. But say you have 10 weeks of buying the dip and then 2 weeks of not. You're still up 8 weeks of pure sex pump.

Sounds like Oct 2018. That singular event has fucked me out of so much profit, because I now have to use an abundance of caution. It is so pathetic.