How to stop picking tops or bottoms

[tomorton]

Why would you stop picking tops and bottoms , just get better at it .

Hmmm, provocative stuff, when most professionals say it can't be done consistently, and the people who are mostly saying it can are vendors with something of doubtful value to sell to newbies.

Leaving that aside, it would still be nice to be as good at picking tops and bottoms as possible, but surely even the best tops and bottoms are irrelevant to me as a long-term trend-follower? The top or bottom is just an entry signal, the real money comes when that signal is the starting point from which price leads into a consistent trend, and the trend is what makes the money don't you agree?

 

[schweiz]

Hmmm, provocative stuff, when most professionals say it can't be done consistently, and the people who are mostly saying it can are vendors with something of doubtful value to sell to newbies.

I agree with the opinion of @PistolPete .
I enter in general fairly close to the tops and the bottoms with a high winning rate. And if I miss them I still can enter at the first pullback with the same accuracy.
But for that you need a system that can indicate with relative high accuracy where the top or bottom area is, and next a performant system to pinpoint the optimal moment in that area.

I know it is risky to post charts because it can wake up the bashers again, but I will do it nevertheless. I don't sell anything so... and my skin, became thick over the years.

The charts are in a 1 minute timeframe to make it more visible, so not because I trade in that timeframe.

 

[tomorton]

I agree with the opinion of @PistolPete .
I enter in general fairly close to the tops and the bottoms with a high winning rate. And if I miss them I still can enter at the first pullback with the same accuracy.
But for that you need a system that can indicate with relative high accuracy where the top or bottom area is, and next a performant system to pinpoint the optimal moment in that area.

I know it is risky to post charts because it can wake up the bashers again, but I will do it nevertheless. I don't sell anything so... and my skin, became thick over the years.

The charts are in a 1 minute timeframe to make it more visible, so not because I trade in that timeframe.

You clearly did well on these schweiz. But these are bare charts - what TA told you to enter long or short at these points?

 

[PistolPete]

3 basic parameters that pick up swing lows . most of these good for 10% moves with low risk , swing highs much the same but dont want to clutter chart with bearish filters and annote . Note no generic indicators , purpose built to show capitulation and reversal signals . THIS is why i pick tops and bottoms , get it right and risk is minimal . only showing extreme swings , plenty more in it

 

[schweiz]

You clearly did well on these schweiz. But these are bare charts - what TA told you to enter long or short at these points?

I was even hesitating to post bare charts.

I work based on mathematical models, so I don't use any standard indicator, no s/r, no divergence, etc...But in fact a lot of indicators are based on mathematical models, as indicators are the graphical presentation of mathematical models...

The funny thing is that I am really not a genius in math, so having the right idea, or concept, seems to be more important than being a Phd in math or science.

Took me about 10 years to reach this point, and it was never my intention to built what I build. The outcome was the unintentional result of trying to make some money in trading by entering as close as possible to the optimal entrypoint to limit the losses. At the same time the signals had to be right most of the time as wrong signals would cost me a lot of money.

 

[PistolPete]

I was even hesitating to post bare charts.

Not sure why , anyone who can reverse engineer any chart is writing their own so no danger of giving anything away . smart guys dont imitate they innovate . Its just histo's with some price , means nothing unless you have the maths and the maths is above mosts's paygrade

 

[tomorton]

It seems between the three of you, you support the general wisdom that picking tops and bottoms consistently is impossible - using conventional TA - such as chart patterns, candlestick formations, MACD, RSI etc. Happy with that. Cheers.

 

[schweiz]

It seems between the three of you, you support the general wisdom that picking tops and bottoms consistently is impossible - using conventional TA - such as chart patterns, candlestick formations, MACD, RSI etc. Happy with that. Cheers.

If Conventional TA - such as chart patterns, candlestick formations, MACD, RSI etc, which are for free available for the entire world, would work there would be 100's of thousands of rich traders. Reality is that millions of people try out this Conventional TA without any success.

 

[expiated]

I set my take-profit target at 10 pips, so I already banked a gain from this pair, but because the asset has dropped all the way back down to 72.57, I have entered a long position a second time.

According to all my bells and whistles, I should have exited AUDJPY approximately seven hours ago with only about 10 pips profit, but unfortunately I do not have the luxury of monitoring my positions minute-by-minute at this point in time, and was not nimble enough to do so.

The point of my executing these two trades was to see if I could enter the positions aggressively and still be successful. Using my forecast model more conservatively, I would not have gone long NZDJPY until 50 minutes ago when the pair crossed above 72.51. Additionally, I would not have gone long AUDJPY until about 55 minutes ago when the pair crossed above 78.79. This would have enabled me to exit both positions already with about 15 and 20 pips profit respectively.

I am currently at about break even with respect to AUDJPY and would like to exit this position with at least a 10-pip gain somewhere around 79.04. I need to cover a bit more ground with respect to NZDJPY, which I hope to exit, at a minimum, somewhere up around 72.75.

 

[schweiz]

smart guys dont imitate they innovate .

No, smart guys first copy/steal and then innovate. Saves them alot of work and might even give them new ideas they could not come up with themselves.

I prefer to be too paranoia, then not paranoia enough.